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I don't think there's any connections, don't misconstrue any on my part... <45>
UFC 235 Jones vs Smith
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I don't think there's any connections, don't misconstrue any on my part... <45>
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I guess you missed her ufc debut fight where we all capped her and concluded what you’re only now finding out
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You think Cirkunov is going to win? Think he can take Johnny down and TKO/SUB him?
That 260lbs Polish Heavyweight had a lot of success wrestling Walker and that fight was only a year ago. But big size disadvantage for Walker and the cage they fought in was tiny.
My issue with Cirkunov is, he got the quit in him. As soon as he faces adversity he seems to crumble, Volkan never KO'd him, he went down and covered up, then was sitting upright 3 seconds after it was stopped. He was beating Glover then folds after being put in a bad position. One big shot from Walker, Cirkunov is balled up on the ground and waiting for the ref to stop it, the guy is a front runner.
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So I got:
Woodley
Zhang
Magomedsharipov
Walker
I'm quite confident in these 4 bets...
Woodley
Zhang
Magomedsharipov
Walker
I'm quite confident in these 4 bets...
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Hey for DK you at least need a few underdogs that's why i am preferring Diego.
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All betting all on favorites eh? i would careful with walker his either a boom or bust for betting, do i need to mention he was taken down by a few of fighters in the regional scene last year i think?
Its easy to predict here or make your predictions but once the fighters hit the mat in the octagon we dont know how they would preform, because anything can happen.
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What's up guys. Figured I'd stop by and throw a few thoughts. Keep in mind this is with NO tape watching and that I haven't tracked any lines so I know nothing about line movement. This is just thoughts off the top of my head in looking at current lines and props. @Naught2Sixty got a nice one from me (hope be bet it!) with Felder dec +450ish on the last card. Plus I told him I liked Ngannou. My only other recommended bet was Sterling NSC at -125. So I'd have gone 2-0 with one push, and both wins at dog odds (Felder dec like I said at big dog odds). Naught can verify my PM to him in case you guys don't believe me LOL.
Tonight:
Jones sub maybe worth a small stab around +250. He doesn't hate Smith, and I'd assume we all think he'll finish. I could see him not trying to destroy Smith's face and Smith giving his back or tapping to a kimura with Jones on top of him.
Usman/Woodley: If Usman dec climbed to +300ish I'd like that I think. Otherwise I don't see much value
Lawler/Askren: No play. Probably Ben blankets him but not worth the juice, even the small juice for Askren dec.
Torres/Zhang: No opinion. Only seen Zhang once and I don't remember much except she's way more aggressive than most women. No clue if she can deal with Tecia's grappling or not.
Munhoz/Cody: IDK, not sure where Cody's head is at. Munhoz has that nasty guillotine, his sub line at +400 maybe worth a stab. Probably a pass.
Stephens/Zabit: Lines look **about** right. Zabit dec at +200 or better would be good, but it's below that right now. IDK, but should be a fun fight.
Misha/Walker: Misha KO is +860. I like that. Walker is ultra aggressive but can be countered. And beyond that, if Misha takes him down and gets to a dominant position, it's no guarantee he doesn't just pound him out as opposed to going for the sub. This line is off imo.
Perez/Stamman: FDNGD at +270 maybe. Everyone expects Stamman to just lay on top of Perez but these fights sometimes don't go that way and it's a really good price on it not seeing the cards.
Sanchez/Gall: Gall itd +105 is the play. I think Diego's chin is gone, and Gall (while rudimentary) will stand in the pocket and throw. He has a good chin and the power to drop guys (see his fight with Sage). I really think he finishes Diego.
Byrd/Shabayzan: No clue. Only saw Shab once. Not gonna give any thoughts on a fight I have no clue on.
Mazany/Chaisson: With the caveat that it's WMMA, Chaisson should finish Mazany. -160 for Chaisson itd maybe has a little value. I would guess she does it by sub, which is +156 if you want to be more aggressive. Chaisson's grappling is a lot better than Mazany's.
Ciphers/Viana: Viana probably wins, but I don't know much about Ciphers and there's decent juice to pay on Viana. So no play imo.
Hope all you guys slaughter it tonight. Enjoy the fights!
Tonight:
Jones sub maybe worth a small stab around +250. He doesn't hate Smith, and I'd assume we all think he'll finish. I could see him not trying to destroy Smith's face and Smith giving his back or tapping to a kimura with Jones on top of him.
Usman/Woodley: If Usman dec climbed to +300ish I'd like that I think. Otherwise I don't see much value
Lawler/Askren: No play. Probably Ben blankets him but not worth the juice, even the small juice for Askren dec.
Torres/Zhang: No opinion. Only seen Zhang once and I don't remember much except she's way more aggressive than most women. No clue if she can deal with Tecia's grappling or not.
Munhoz/Cody: IDK, not sure where Cody's head is at. Munhoz has that nasty guillotine, his sub line at +400 maybe worth a stab. Probably a pass.
Stephens/Zabit: Lines look **about** right. Zabit dec at +200 or better would be good, but it's below that right now. IDK, but should be a fun fight.
Misha/Walker: Misha KO is +860. I like that. Walker is ultra aggressive but can be countered. And beyond that, if Misha takes him down and gets to a dominant position, it's no guarantee he doesn't just pound him out as opposed to going for the sub. This line is off imo.
Perez/Stamman: FDNGD at +270 maybe. Everyone expects Stamman to just lay on top of Perez but these fights sometimes don't go that way and it's a really good price on it not seeing the cards.
Sanchez/Gall: Gall itd +105 is the play. I think Diego's chin is gone, and Gall (while rudimentary) will stand in the pocket and throw. He has a good chin and the power to drop guys (see his fight with Sage). I really think he finishes Diego.
Byrd/Shabayzan: No clue. Only saw Shab once. Not gonna give any thoughts on a fight I have no clue on.
Mazany/Chaisson: With the caveat that it's WMMA, Chaisson should finish Mazany. -160 for Chaisson itd maybe has a little value. I would guess she does it by sub, which is +156 if you want to be more aggressive. Chaisson's grappling is a lot better than Mazany's.
Ciphers/Viana: Viana probably wins, but I don't know much about Ciphers and there's decent juice to pay on Viana. So no play imo.
Hope all you guys slaughter it tonight. Enjoy the fights!
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Yes I also like the $7,100 for Diego. $7,200 for Lawler is also good because if he wins, he probably wins via finish.
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Ya anything can happen in a fight... But walker has some crazy athleticism for a 240 lb guy. I just don't see Cirkunov having the strength advantage to keep this fight on the mat... If walker gets taken down, I see him scrambling to get back on his feet and continue with the striking assault.
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Yeah dude had Felder DEC in a couple of $1 round robbins lol and took Ngannou after seeing Cains knee buckle in the workouts. All told walked away up like 150$ so not bad for me. Didn't post my bets out of laziness.
You might be the only guy leaning Gall at all heh. I'm all about fading Diego at this point and if Schilling has taught Gall to throw a straight punch at all he can clip Diego.
I took Jones TKO at +110.
Askren -3.5 is better than DEC imo. If he wins a decision he's not likely to give up a round.
On Byrd small. He's gonna be looking to grapple and Edmund is gonna be in Edmens corner...I'm not saying that means anything but take it for what it's worth.
I'm on Stephens too but very uncomfortable about it. I think Stephens can break the body lock a lot to keep from being held down. i'm pretty much counting on a KO and I'm nervous about it.
You watching these fights or you sipping out of a coconut on a beach or some shit?
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Oh I'm watching them.
Honestly, I don't even think Gall needs to have crisp straight punches to catch Diego. I'm kinda sad to even say it, Diego is such a mainstay for so long. But he's done. Gall is way better and grittier than Craig freaking White. And Gall is world class on the mat. Competing with guys like Keenan Cornelius in grappling competitions.
I like your thinking on Askren.
Jones KO is more likely than sub so you'll probably hit but I don't think it's WAY more likely than sub.
I'm excited for Zabit/Jeremy. Should be a super interesting fight.
BOL man!
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Hey guys super n00b question, I'd ask in the other thread but card is starting soon and don't know how active it is over there.
I want to bet the o/u 1.5 rounds in Jones fight. Just to make sure, that means if I think the fight goes past the 2:30 mark of 2nd round, right?
I want to bet the o/u 1.5 rounds in Jones fight. Just to make sure, that means if I think the fight goes past the 2:30 mark of 2nd round, right?
D
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Correct
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Yes, BUT some books have screwed the pooch on this one. Might check with customer service real quick depending on which book you're using.
Ariel Helwani's UFC 235 pre-fight ESPN Radio show just started live in case anyone wants some advance hype. He's interviewing one of Jones' coaches: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?s=espn
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Striking has clearly been a weakness in Gall's game, but he claims he moved to MusclePharm for exactly that reason. Last fight he didn't throw a single punch, so basically we haven't seen Mickey throw hands in the octagon since Nov 2017. That's a lot of time for improvement! Against Diego Galll will probably want to keep it standing, and, with Diego being as KO:able as he is, I really think this is the perfect time to bet Gall by KO.
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What are your preferred betting styles? Do you like parlays, props or just straight ML bets on who'll win? I just do simple bets, no parlays, but I'm interested in other people's strategies.
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I'm a huge parlay whore.
