What's up guys. Figured I'd stop by and throw a few thoughts. Keep in mind this is with NO tape watching and that I haven't tracked any lines so I know nothing about line movement. This is just thoughts off the top of my head in looking at current lines and props.
@Naught2Sixty got a nice one from me (hope be bet it!) with Felder dec +450ish on the last card. Plus I told him I liked Ngannou. My only other recommended bet was Sterling NSC at -125. So I'd have gone 2-0 with one push, and both wins at dog odds (Felder dec like I said at big dog odds). Naught can verify my PM to him in case you guys don't believe me LOL.
Tonight:
Jones sub maybe worth a small stab around +250. He doesn't hate Smith, and I'd assume we all think he'll finish. I could see him not trying to destroy Smith's face and Smith giving his back or tapping to a kimura with Jones on top of him.
Usman/Woodley: If Usman dec climbed to +300ish I'd like that I think. Otherwise I don't see much value
Lawler/Askren: No play. Probably Ben blankets him but not worth the juice, even the small juice for Askren dec.
Torres/Zhang: No opinion. Only seen Zhang once and I don't remember much except she's way more aggressive than most women. No clue if she can deal with Tecia's grappling or not.
Munhoz/Cody: IDK, not sure where Cody's head is at. Munhoz has that nasty guillotine, his sub line at +400 maybe worth a stab. Probably a pass.
Stephens/Zabit: Lines look **about** right. Zabit dec at +200 or better would be good, but it's below that right now. IDK, but should be a fun fight.
Misha/Walker: Misha KO is +860. I like that. Walker is ultra aggressive but can be countered. And beyond that, if Misha takes him down and gets to a dominant position, it's no guarantee he doesn't just pound him out as opposed to going for the sub. This line is off imo.
Perez/Stamman: FDNGD at +270 maybe. Everyone expects Stamman to just lay on top of Perez but these fights sometimes don't go that way and it's a really good price on it not seeing the cards.
Sanchez/Gall: Gall itd +105 is the play. I think Diego's chin is gone, and Gall (while rudimentary) will stand in the pocket and throw. He has a good chin and the power to drop guys (see his fight with Sage). I really think he finishes Diego.
Byrd/Shabayzan: No clue. Only saw Shab once. Not gonna give any thoughts on a fight I have no clue on.
Mazany/Chaisson: With the caveat that it's WMMA, Chaisson should finish Mazany. -160 for Chaisson itd maybe has a little value. I would guess she does it by sub, which is +156 if you want to be more aggressive. Chaisson's grappling is a lot better than Mazany's.
Ciphers/Viana: Viana probably wins, but I don't know much about Ciphers and there's decent juice to pay on Viana. So no play imo.
Hope all you guys slaughter it tonight. Enjoy the fights!