UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

[cocomilk]

weasel and mma prediction guru
half the battle is an entertaining listen
pat mayo is alright
care dont care the best
the technical aspects and line values are as highly discussed here as any podcast imo tho

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Been listening to half the battle the past few months and been loving it. but this week's episode was almost unbearable to listen to for some reason. the guys constantly disrespect fighters in an attempt to be funny, like instead of saying so and so fought bad competition they feel they need to call them hot dog vendors or car salesmen, repetitively, felt like it happened 5 times this episode. They also used a lot of illogical arguments for picking a fighter, like bringing up Boston Salmon's amateur boxing fight with Errol Spence as a reason why he will beat Khalid Taha. I'm not saying I'm done listening to them forever, but it seems like they're trying too hard to be entertaining and funny, and less focused on the analysis of the fights.

Kalikis and Hemminger's podcast will always be my favorite. minimal bullshit, no small talk, just business.

Any other pods you guys recommend? Doesn't have to be betting oriented, but I'm looking for opinions on matchups not just general mma discussion.

I love the funny aspect of my boys but this week was a little weird, I agree. My guess is that they bet Kelvin because they bet him before and seem to be pretty high on him. Sometimes they talk a little shit about a fighter to downplay their skills and Adesanya was the one this time.

 

[johno]

Just cashed out my 3u bet on Anders without a loss.

He is talking about standing and banging until one of them falls in all interviews. Fuck that shit lol.

I was thinking the same thing when I watched his interviews haha. In hearing that I did feel concerned, but upon reviewing his td stats it showed sucessful takedowns in several fights. In contrast to rountree who has lost to every fighter to take him down. Can we be sure that anders will look for takedowns? No
The writing is on the wall though and if we can see some form of iq fight from anders he will land take downs. If anders passes guard he won't have to fish for subs cos rountree has an average gas tank and a questionable ground game

 

[Card]

Very random - but does anyone live in Buffalo New York or Niagara Falls New York here? =)

 

[null]

Not for deep technical analysis which most podcasts don't get too much into, but for UFC betting talk and entertainment, I also have been listening to The MMA Analysis for quite some time and always look forward to it.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

those little nuances are hard to get rid of during podcasts, I say "you know", "like I said earlier", or "ummm" all the time. I don't hold anything against them for that reasoning. sometimes it sounds like they did no tape and are just picking a fighter because of trivial reasoning.

Where can I find your pod? I wanna check it out.

 

[zeckdo]

Where can I find your pod? I wanna check it out.

Youtube, Soundcloud, and Apple podcasts app. YT is still uploading so I haven't made a post about this week's yet, but the soundcloud version is uploaded.

Lmk what you think

 

[zeckdo]

I love the funny aspect of my boys but this week was a little weird, I agree. My guess is that they bet Kelvin because they bet him before and seem to be pretty high on him. Sometimes they talk a little shit about a fighter to downplay their skills and Adesanya was the one this time.

they said he has fought no one good, they acted like the only reason he beat Tavares was Tavares's "broken foot", and barely mentioned the Derek Brunson win.

 

[null]

Friday's schedule:

UFC 236 Official Weigh-in 9 am ET Ariel & The Bad Guy on ESPN+
UFC Seasonal Press Conference 12 pm ET YouTube
UFC 236 Pre-Show 1:30 pm ET ESPN+

 

[mkess101]

I see some value in Belal -140 after watching how much he has used his wrestling vs inferior grapplers. You guys maybe covered this already, but with the gaping holes in Millender's TDD and overall grappling, I don't see Muhammad really wasting much time even trying to strike. It's not like he can't and will get instantly blasted standing, but there's just no risk for him to go with a wrestling heavy gameplan. After dropping his last fight, he's not gonna want to lose 2 in a row.

I cap Belal closer to -200. For a card that seems really light on value, this is one I'd be playing for sure.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

care dont care the best

Sorry but this is pure garbage to me. This Eugene guy is absolutely impossible to listen, he doesn't care or know a lot of the fighters, and the way he talks I can barely understand anything he is saying, some ghetto slang to the max... And the constant inside jokes that a foreigner like me just wouldn't understand... If you joke around do it inside the space of MMA shit, no some U.S. things that a person who never lived there and is not deep in the culture can understand. Not relatable this podcast, I even got banned from the channel for saying this in a comment one time.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I see some value in Belal -140 after watching how much he has used his wrestling vs inferior grapplers. You guys maybe covered this already, but with the gaping holes in Millender's TDD and overall grappling, I don't see Muhammad really wasting much time even trying to strike. It's not like he can't and will get instantly blasted standing, but there's just no risk for him to go with a wrestling heavy gameplan. After dropping his last fight, he's not gonna want to lose 2 in a row.

I cap Belal closer to -200. For a card that seems really light on value, this is one I'd be playing for sure.

One of the few on Millender (2u). I haven’t really wavered either. Had a confidence boost in Phil Mackenzie picking him on heavy hands. Boiling it down to Belal just needing 1 TD per round makes it sound like a forgone conclusion. But Millender is huge next to Belal, length and height, and won’t have to guess at all at Belal’s game plan.
Anyways I’ve written a bunch already itt. Just wanted to counter your post to warn potential bettors that there’s more to this matchup imo and -140 might not be so great. Belal decision is probably better for Muhammad backers because how else does he win? The KO ain’t there and Zaleski he is not for the sub.

Curtis at dog money at 1-2u max. still seems to me like the play.

 

[null]

Sorry but this is pure garbage to me. This Eugene guy is absolutely impossible to listen, he doesn't care or know a lot of the fighters, and the way he talks I can barely understand anything he is saying, some ghetto slang to the max... And the constant inside jokes that a foreigner like me just wouldn't understand... If you joke around do it inside the space of MMA shit, no some U.S. things that a person who never lived there and is not deep in the culture can understand. Not relatable this podcast, I even got banned from the channel for saying this in a comment one time.

You have to understand that Care/Don't Care isn't a betting podcast or a serious MMA podcast, it's more like proudly casual about what fights are important and talking about it from that perspective. I used to think it was dumb to have a podcast from that perspective but since I started listening to it I find Eugune to be really interesting since he's close to my age and frequently talks about NYC, punk rock & pornography, things I know a lot about. I have no doubt that his made up phrases and those topics are really esoteric if you are a non-American speaking English as a second language though.

 

[burge13]

I see some value in Belal -140 after watching how much he has used his wrestling vs inferior grapplers. You guys maybe covered this already, but with the gaping holes in Millender's TDD and overall grappling, I don't see Muhammad really wasting much time even trying to strike. It's not like he can't and will get instantly blasted standing, but there's just no risk for him to go with a wrestling heavy gameplan. After dropping his last fight, he's not gonna want to lose 2 in a row.

I cap Belal closer to -200. For a card that seems really light on value, this is one I'd be playing for sure.

-200 seems steep to me but Belal really does beat the people he's supposed to and he's one of the few these days who you can count on to do what works. If the TD is there, he'll take it. If he's winning the striking, he'll strike. He isn't an idiot which seems like half the trouble capping fights lately...

 

[turbozed]

One of the few on Millender (2u). I haven’t really wavered either. Had a confidence boost in Phil Mackenzie picking him on heavy hands. Boiling it down to Belal just needing 1 TD per round makes it sound like a forgone conclusion. But Millender is huge next to Belal, length and height, and won’t have to guess at all at Belal’s game plan.
Anyways I’ve written a bunch already itt. Just wanted to counter your post to warn potential bettors that there’s more to this matchup imo and -140 might not be so great. Belal decision is probably better for Muhammad backers because how else does he win? The KO ain’t there and Zaleski he is not for the sub.

Curtis at dog money at 1-2u max. still seems to me like the play.

Seems like we're the tiny minority here. Bottom line for me is that Belal has to execute his gameplan perfectly, avoid damage, land takedowns and keep top control for as long as possible. He's been able to outgrapple better grapplers than Millender before, but only after keeping it competitive and pressuring/clinching them first to tire them out. I don't see him bullying Millender and tiring him out with pressure since he's at a huge striking, power, and athletic disadvantage. If he clinches up with Millender, he'll probably get outmuscled and eat some knees. So he'll have to bank on TDs first and foremost, something he's never done with his balanced game, and at most points in the fight he'll be trying holding down a relatively fresh Millender who is looking at all times to get up and fuck him up.

Millender seems bad enough on the ground where he definitely can be held down for the entire round after hitting the mat. But Millender will be fighting the same style as usual against a worse athlete than guys he's already beat before. Belal will need to become primarily a wrestler which isn't his uusal game, and he can't afford to make any mistakes with it. Millender can also just end the fight quickly with a well placed knee or kick whereas Belal has little chance to finish this outside of a RNC in transition. Belal is also coming off getting wrecked by Neal whereas Millender took no damage last time out.

 

[mkess101]

One of the few on Millender (2u). I haven’t really wavered either. Had a confidence boost in Phil Mackenzie picking him on heavy hands. Boiling it down to Belal just needing 1 TD per round makes it sound like a forgone conclusion. But Millender is huge next to Belal, length and height, and won’t have to guess at all at Belal’s game plan.
Anyways I’ve written a bunch already itt. Just wanted to counter your post to warn potential bettors that there’s more to this matchup imo and -140 might not be so great. Belal decision is probably better for Muhammad backers because how else does he win? The KO ain’t there and Zaleski he is not for the sub.

Curtis at dog money at 1-2u max. still seems to me like the play.

IDK if I'd boil it down to Belal just needing one TD per round, but I do think if Griffin and especially Siyar were able to put Curtis on his back so easily that Belal (who I think has better TD's than either of those guys) will be able to as well. Your point about the size is a good one though.

I also don't think Belal will be afraid to strike a bit to set up his TD's. His striking is a level below Millender's, but the gap isn't THAT wide imo. I mean, not to the point where Millender can just ignore any striking threat from Belal in order to focus on TDD.

Belal definitely isn't Zeleski on the mat, I agree he probably won't get in a position to sub Curtis. I do think dec is way more likely than him finishing, but Curtis is REALLY clueless on the ground. He's made mistakes nearly every time he's been taken down. His opponents haven't always capitalized, but he has a lot to improve on defensively on the mat. I could see him getting stuck against the cage with Belal in his half guard just smashing him.

I also don't want to make it sound too much like I'm selling Belal as the L word. Yeah I cap him around -200 and think his current line has value, but it's not like I'd be stunned if Millender won. He's the better striker, and if he can avoid the TD in 2 out of 3 rounds he has a clear path to victory. I just don't think he'll be able to do that.

 

[mkess101]

-200 seems steep to me but Belal really does beat the people he's supposed to and he's one of the few these days who you can count on to do what works. If the TD is there, he'll take it. If he's winning the striking, he'll strike. He isn't an idiot which seems like half the trouble capping fights lately...

I agree, and I think doubly so coming off a loss. I have a hard time seeing him not trying to use the gameplan that gives him the best chance of winning, even if it's less exciting.

 

[Soccer Steve]

...frequently talks about NYC, punk rock & pornography, things I know a lot about...

Jimmy, I bet you'd be an interesting dude to sit down and have a beer with.

 

[Larthus]

Anyone else like Max Griffin at his current odds or am I crazy for thinking Zelim’s debut will be spoiled?

 

[Soccer Steve]

IDK if I'd boil it down to Belal just needing one TD per round, but I do think if Griffin and especially Siyar were able to put Curtis on his back so easily that Belal (who I think has better TD's than either of those guys) will be able to as well. Your point about the size is a good one though.

I also don't think Belal will be afraid to strike a bit to set up his TD's. His striking is a level below Millender's, but the gap isn't THAT wide imo. I mean, not to the point where Millender can just ignore any striking threat from Belal in order to focus on TDD.

Belal definitely isn't Zeleski on the mat, I agree he probably won't get in a position to sub Curtis. I do think dec is way more likely than him finishing, but Curtis is REALLY clueless on the ground. He's made mistakes nearly every time he's been taken down. His opponents haven't always capitalized, but he has a lot to improve on defensively on the mat. I could see him getting stuck against the cage with Belal in his half guard just smashing him.

I also don't want to make it sound too much like I'm selling Belal as the L word. Yeah I cap him around -200 and think his current line has value, but it's not like I'd be stunned if Millender won. He's the better striker, and if he can avoid the TD in 2 out of 3 rounds he has a clear path to victory. I just don't think he'll be able to do that.

And yet with such an obvious and glaring weakness, how many guys have actually taken advantage of it enough to win the fight? Zaleski was lightning quick on that sub attack, it was damn impressive. Curtis gets up to his feet from that spot against most other guys imo. And I'm not sure Millender won't leave his hands really low, just like he did against Griffin, knowing he'll take shots but have TDD ready and knowing that Belal will need a perfect-perfect-perfect shot for the KO.

But hey, Belal absolutely has a ptv against a guy with a weakness to being on the ground. But as @turbozed got to, that's not really how Belal and Millender fights seem to go exactly.

Love that betting turns an somewhat anonymous fight like this one into something quite compelling.

As an aside, the HH guys had a pretty funny equation on their podcast: Millender beat Holland who beat Neal who beat Belal. Haha it doesn't make any good sense at all!