UFC 236 Holloway vs Poirier 2

[mkess101]

Anyone else like Max Griffin at his current odds or am I crazy for thinking Zelim’s debut will be spoiled?

Seems like a coin toss to me. No clue how you assess a guy like Imadaev who has smashed everyone he's faced, but all those guys being nowhere near the league of a guy like Griffin. Seems like betting this fight either way is mostly guessing based on the fact that there's nothing to go on for Imadaev against anyone but cans.

 

[mkess101]

And yet with such an obvious and glaring weakness, how many guys have actually taken advantage of it enough to win the fight? Zaleski was lightning quick on that sub attack, it was damn impressive. Curtis gets up to his feet from that spot against most other guys imo. And I'm not sure Millender won't leave his hands really low, just like he did against Griffin, knowing he'll take shots but have TDD ready and knowing that Belal will need a perfect-perfect-perfect shot for the KO.

But hey, Belal absolutely has a ptv against a guy with a weakness to being on the ground. But as @turbozed got to, that's not really how Belal and Millender fights seem to go exactly.

Love that betting turns an somewhat anonymous fight like this one into something quite compelling.

As an aside, the HH guys had a pretty funny equation on their podcast: Millender beat Holland who beat Neal who beat Belal. Haha it doesn't make any good sense at all!

I don't see Belal getting a KO. But...if Curtis is too wary of the TD and keeps his hands low, that definitely evens out the striking imo. Belal isn't horrible standing. He will land a lot if Millender is overly concerned with being taken down. (Which he might be after his last fight).

Knowing you are on Curtis, I kinda hope I'm wrong here. I'd rather see you cash your bet than me just "be right". Plus, long term Millender has more upside and potential for exciting fights than Belal does.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I don't see Belal getting a KO. But...if Curtis is too wary of the TD and keeps his hands low, that definitely evens out the striking imo. Belal isn't horrible standing. He will land a lot if Millender is overly concerned with being taken down. (Which he might be after his last fight).

Knowing you are on Curtis, I kinda hope I'm wrong here. I'd rather see you cash your bet than me just "be right". Plus, long term Millender has more upside and potential for exciting fights than Belal does.

Haha appreciate the karma push bro...except ~90% of the the forum's on Belal haha but I'll take it!

 

[mkess101]

Haha appreciate the karma push bro...except ~90% of the the forum's on Belal haha but I'll take it!

Well I like those guys too...but I'm talking with YOU about this fight. So...I'm rooting for your bet to cash. I'll root for the rest of the forum on the rest of the card ha ha.

 

[turbozed]

Haha appreciate the karma push bro...except ~90% of the the forum's on Belal haha but I'll take it!

A lot of really sharp bettors are on Belal here, which makes it very hard for me to put anything but a small bet on Curtis and a flyer on his KO/ITD line. Probably should be a pass for me, but I have a very vivid image in my head of Curtis landing a lot of damage on Belal, so I had to make a small play.

 

[Soccer Steve]

A lot of really sharp bettors are on Belal here, which makes it very hard for me to put anything but a small bet on Curtis and a flyer on his KO/ITD line. Probably should be a pass for me, but I have a very vivid image in my head of Curtis landing a lot of damage on Belal, so I had to make a small play.

We're in exactly the same place. And we're both keeping it cool in here too so we don't look too foolish if Belal just warthogs him for 3 rounds.

 

[null]

This fight has been discussed ad naseum already but I went pretty big on Millender. He'd be a pretty solid favorite against Belal if he hadn't gotten quickly submitted by an opponent who is a likely future title challenger in his last bout. Belal is a solid & well rounded fighter but not a hulking wrestler and has never pulled off a submission so I will gladly take Curtis at +120 to either get a KO or win a decision.

 

[JoshTehV]

This thread is too damn long, yall already know Maxi is going to make this boy from the bayou squeal like a pig

reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[NorthernLights]

Been listening to half the battle the past few months and been loving it. but this week's episode was almost unbearable to listen to for some reason.

I stopped listening to those guys because they are annoying as hell (Shaq in particular is unbearable) and looking at their actual results they aren't even good at what they're doing.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I bet Belal very early when he was the underdog. Still I am starting to worry because of the HH guys. I know Belal struggled every time he had to face superior athlete. That is simply the truth. Randy Brown is the only athletic guy who he beat, but Randy is very bad. Millender is I think better athlete than Brown and he is more dangerous. I can't pinpoint why. Maybe because he is blistering fast and he throws some decent amount of straight shots which makes his speed even more pronounced.
I think Belal will have the edge of a longer training camp here and his more complete MMA game and an actual craft and gamplanning will do the trick in this fight.

Edit: I forgot about his win over Mein.

@JimGunn, what do you think about Kid Nate? Was he really an MMA gambler back in the day? I like him when he was on the Vivis and 6th round podcast. He has a lot smart things to say about the sport.

 

[turbozed]

Unfortunately, Belal vs Curtis is a fight pass prelim so we're not going to get live lines on 5d for it.

Was thinking Curtis would be a good live play if he's able to stuff more than 2 or 3 tds in the first since Belals got about 5 or 6 good solid TD attempts in him. Better still if Belal needs all of those attempts and still wins the round.

 

[null]

I bet Belal very early when he was the underdog. Still I am starting to worry because of the HH guys. I know Belal struggled every time he had to face superior athlete. That is simply the truth. Randy Brown is the only athletic guy who he beat, but Randy is very bad. Millender is I think better athlete than Brown and he is more dangerous. I can't pinpoint why. Maybe because he is blistering fast and he throws some decent amount of straight shots which makes his speed even more pronounced.
I think Belal will have the edge of a longer training camp here and his more complete MMA game and an actual craft and gamplanning will do the trick in this fight.

Edit: I forgot about his win over Mein.

@JimGunn, what do you think about Kid Nate? Was he really an MMA gambler back in the day? I like him when he was on the Vivis and 6th round podcast. He has a lot smart things to say about the sport.

I haven't seen him on any of the podcasts in a while. Sometimes he had interesting things to say, but most of these podcasters I have no idea about their respective betting records, I just like to hear the discussion. Here on the forum it's a lot easier to keep track of peopel's records if they post results.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I will give Curtis one last chance and bet him because he will murder Belal in stand up or maybe knee him while he shots for a td.
He Has more potential

 

[raketmannen]

Been listening to half the battle the past few months and been loving it. but this week's episode was almost unbearable to listen to for some reason. the guys constantly disrespect fighters in an attempt to be funny, like instead of saying so and so fought bad competition they feel they need to call them hot dog vendors or car salesmen, repetitively, felt like it happened 5 times this episode.

That was literally all they did when I started listening about 2 years ago, much worse than this weeks. I saw them getting a lot of shit for it on social media and their youtube videos then and they toned it down a lot. Seems like they're getting back to their old ways.

 

[raketmannen]

One of the few on Millender (2u). I haven’t really wavered either. Had a confidence boost in Phil Mackenzie picking him on heavy hands.

Phil said he bet him as a "sadness hedge", he thought Muhammad should win and that he'd be sad if he lost, but at least he would get his pick right as consolidation... don't see how that can inspire much confidence

 

[NorthernLights]

That was literally all they did when I started listening about 2 years ago, much worse than this weeks. I saw them getting a lot of shit for it on social media and their youtube videos then and they toned it down a lot. Seems like they're getting back to their old ways.

 

[Broe.]

Not for deep technical analysis which most podcasts don't get too much into, but for UFC betting talk and entertainment, I also have been listening to The MMA Analysis for quite some time and always look forward to it.

Thanks for this, i just listened to an episode of the mma analysis, it is very entertaining!

 

[weedreference]

Both hosts ending every other sentence with "You know what I'm saying?" didn't bother you before this, lol? I listen to quite a few podcasts, way too many to list, but Kalikas & Hemminger's podcast is definitely the most straight forward betting podcast.

I listen to both these podcasts and no others. Fast forwarding Hemminger is a must. Very rarely does he provide valuable insights. His understanding hasn't evolved with sport. It's like listening to a guy from 2011 talk about modern MMA (nor has Kalikas' for that matter, but he's stuck around 2015 or so, which is why he got replaced at 5dimes).

If I'm short on time and can only listen to one, I go with Half the Battle without hesitation. They give out more info I otherwise wouldn't have had, and I do generally find them funny. I enjoy the schtick where they make fun of fighters for non-fighting stuff and admit that certain guys are jobbers, whereas others commentators tend to be more respectful. Their biases are pretty obvious (this week Salmon being the obvious one), so it's easy to take that into account when factoring their info into your bets.

 

[Vir_Ars]

This week is complicated... I'm on Millender 3u., 2u on Griffin, 2u on reis, 4u on Botelho, 2u Davis... Could be a very good night of a disaster, I read so many good arguments pro and against my picks, but I still confident.
I also wanna play:
Salmon: sick boxing, very good defense and very good in checking kicks, low volume but I think he will be more active now
Turner: A lot of potential, but weak? chin
Krylov: I dont like to put money in old declining fighters (Unless it is Diego sanchez, I love that guy)
Jouban: Is just beter in everything that Grant, more volume, beter technic, Fight IQ,good gameplanning, but not a very good chin, but I think a little beter that most people think, Price have a lot of power, after the Means KO it is pretty obvious. I think Jouban knows what he have to do to win against Grant, it is too obvious and too easy, but still, dangerous.
Anders: If Santos didnt KO him in the first round, why should Khalil? that guy is too bad.

 

[ApplesVild]

Phil said he bet him as a "sadness hedge", he thought Muhammad should win and that he'd be sad if he lost, but at least he would get his pick right as consolidation... don't see how that can inspire much confidence

Curtis could easily land a bomb or clip Belal at any point, put a small play on Curtis KO maybe. I think Belal gets it done, he has the tools and if the game plan is correct he should be able to use them well and grind out (maybe finish on the ground) Curtis.