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- Jul 14, 2018
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So annoying. I taped 6 fights for this event, more than I ever have for a previous UFC...and only decided to bet 2 of them, as I didn't see the value in the others. Will definitely look to live-bet and possibly bet the main event, but otherwise, this is the lightest I've gone on a UFC event (I have a little more than this on Bellator) in a long, long time;
1.5u on Bernardo ML at -290
2.1u on Correia-Aldana GTD at -210
Bleh. Missed both bets, and then lost another 1.17u betting Rose at +122. Even worse, I bet 5u on Chandler against Patricio Pitbull, for a grand total (UFC + Bellator) loss of 9.77u. Only made 2 live-bets, both of which canceled each other out.
The Correia-Aldana GTD and Rose bets were clearly good, especially given those odds, but were killed by fluky shit. Happens. It's fighting.
I clearly missed something with regards to Araujo as I didn't see anything remotely good in her footage, and thought Bernardo would take her down at will. Meh, shouldn't pay the juice on WMMA, despite the many factors that seemed ridiculous there, like going up 2 (!) weight classes or having 3 days' notice.
What about the Chandler-Patricio Freire bet? Chandler's chin is clearly gone. That was hard to guess based on his last fights; he was momentarily knocked down against both Yamauchi and Primus, but they were both big lightweights who caught him at the perfect time, and he recovered quickly each time.
Should I have guessed that a small featherweight who couldn't finish, and had very, very close fights against Dan Weichel and Emmanuel Sanchez would knock Chandler out so easily? There weren't many other paths to victory for Patricio Pitbull.
In retrospect, I only regret the Bernardo bet. Props to the people who did well this week. And for those who haven't, just more motivation to study the footage extra well for next week!
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