UFC 237 Namajunas vs Andrade Official Bets

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

So annoying. I taped 6 fights for this event, more than I ever have for a previous UFC...and only decided to bet 2 of them, as I didn't see the value in the others. Will definitely look to live-bet and possibly bet the main event, but otherwise, this is the lightest I've gone on a UFC event (I have a little more than this on Bellator) in a long, long time;

1.5u on Bernardo ML at -290
2.1u on Correia-Aldana GTD at -210

Bleh. Missed both bets, and then lost another 1.17u betting Rose at +122. Even worse, I bet 5u on Chandler against Patricio Pitbull, for a grand total (UFC + Bellator) loss of 9.77u. Only made 2 live-bets, both of which canceled each other out.

The Correia-Aldana GTD and Rose bets were clearly good, especially given those odds, but were killed by fluky shit. Happens. It's fighting.

I clearly missed something with regards to Araujo as I didn't see anything remotely good in her footage, and thought Bernardo would take her down at will. Meh, shouldn't pay the juice on WMMA, despite the many factors that seemed ridiculous there, like going up 2 (!) weight classes or having 3 days' notice.

What about the Chandler-Patricio Freire bet? Chandler's chin is clearly gone. That was hard to guess based on his last fights; he was momentarily knocked down against both Yamauchi and Primus, but they were both big lightweights who caught him at the perfect time, and he recovered quickly each time.

Should I have guessed that a small featherweight who couldn't finish, and had very, very close fights against Dan Weichel and Emmanuel Sanchez would knock Chandler out so easily? There weren't many other paths to victory for Patricio Pitbull.

In retrospect, I only regret the Bernardo bet. Props to the people who did well this week. And for those who haven't, just more motivation to study the footage extra well for next week!

 

[ApplesVild]

I played a 4 man parlay, for the top 4 fighters on the PPV portion... but only put a 5 on it....

 

[chemmy]

Bernardo risk 2.36 units to win 1 unit
Aldana risk 2.29 units to win 1 unit
Barcelos risk 3.32 units to win 1 unit
Cachoeira risk 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Holobaugh risk 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
Aldo risk 1.22 units to win 1 unit

3 super-juiced plays along with a stab on a ridiculously low-level underdog in Cachoeira. Could be a recipe for disaster but I’m happy with all of my action. I guess we’ll see what happens when the dust settles.

The Bernardo over Gatto play was cancelled, but the other 5 plays worked out to -1.72 units.

I did add this Araujo play @ +270 which helped out quite a bit, but still a small losing night for me. My 3 losing fighters in Aldo, Cachoeira (lol) and Holobaugh all put on horrible performances tonight. Ah well, moving on the next week.

 

[2bet]

2u Bernardo 1,31
2u Aldana 1,42
2u Moises 1,69
2u T. Alves 1,97
2u Aldo 1,73
2u Penn/Guida O1.5 1,81
2u Anderson 2,17
2u Anderon/Cannonier O2.5 1,71

Bellator:
2u Lima 1,45
10u Swagger 1,13

Aldana and Swagger the only non Brazilians that I am on (Swagger not fighting in Brazil though)

- 4u
worst event this year so far.

Bernardo bet was nonsense after the rescheduling, especially at those odds, I blindly bet that shit and deserve the loss.
The O2.5 bet in the Anderson match was also retarded, I was superconfident Anderson would not get knocked out but did not think about his bum knees.

Without those two bets I would have made it out even.

I don't regret betting T. Alves, Aldo and Anderson at those MLs, it wasn't to be expected that all 3 of them perform that terrible in their home territory.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

R. Namajunas +130 3.75u

Will be adding more when all the Andrade bettors inevitably drive my girl Thug Rose's line up.

Wearing my Thug Rose shirt, talking a bunch of shit at the bar and my girl gets slammed ko'd. Sigh the fight game is brutal.

 

[null]

What a slam by Jessica Andrade in the main event. Wish I had threw something on her live after that tough first round. Brazilians didn't do as well this time as many hoped. Got away with a modest 3.59 unit loss, but at least I cleaned up in Bellator & boxing for a much needed good weekend result.

UFC 237 Results Risk $6,482.22

Jessica Andrade (-119) vs Rose Namajunas $119.05 for $100.00= $100.00
Jessica Andrade (-122) vs Rose Namajunas $122.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Jessica Andrade/Rose Namajunas Over 4½ (-103) $103.00 for $100.00= -$103.00

Anderson Silva (+115) vs Jared Cannonier $200.00 for $230.00= -$200.00
Anderson Silva wins by 3 round decision (+209) $50.00 for $104.50= -$50.00

Jose Aldo (-133) vs Alexander Volkanovski $266.67 for $200.00= -$266.67
Jose Aldo (-135) vs Alexander Volkanovski $270.00 for $200.00= -$270.00

Thiago Alves (-105) vs Laureano Staropoli $105.00 for $100.00= -$105.00
Thiago Alves/Laureano Staropoli Over 2½ (-200) $200.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Irene Aldana wins in round 3 (+1400) $10.00 for $140.00= $140.00
Irene Aldana wins by decision (-105) $105.00 for $100.00= -$105.00
Irene Aldana/Bethe Correia goes 3 round distance (-215) $215.00 for $100.00= -$215.00

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+125) vs Ryan Spann $200.00 for $250.00= -$200.00
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira wins by KO,/KO/DQ (+325) $40.00 for $130.00= -$40.00
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira wins in round 2 (+850) $15.00 for $127.50= -$15.00
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira wins in round 3 (+1800) $15.00 for $270.00= -$15.00

Kurt Holobaugh (+105) vs Thiago Moises $200.00 for $210.00= -$200.00
Kurt Holobaugh/Thiago Moises Under 2½ (+142) $100.00 for $142.00= -$100.00

Warlley Alves (-135) vs Sérgio Moraes $270.00 for $200.00= $200.00

Clay Guida (-550) vs vs B.J. Penn $2,750.00 for $500.00= $500.00
Clay Guida wins inside distance (-130) $130.00 for $100.00= -$130.00
Clay Guida wins in round 2 (+450) $25.00 for $112.50= -$25.00
Clay Guida wins in round 3 (+900) $25.00 for $225.00= -$25.00
Clay Guida/B.J. Penn Over 1½ (-123) $123.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Clay Guida/B.J. Penn Over 1½ (-127) $127.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Priscila Cachoeira (+145) vs Luana Carolina $100.00 for $145.00= -$100.00

Raoni Barcelos/Carlos Huachin Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= -$140.00

Viviane Araujo (+305) vs Talita Bernardo $100.00 for $305.00= $305.00

How many Brazilian fighters will go to the weigh-ins with a Brazilian flag in UFC 237? Under 5 (+100) $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Parlay:
Priscila Cachoeira/Luana Carolina Over 2½ (-340) + Irene Aldana (-360) vs Bethe Correia $306.50 for $200.33= $200.33
-----

Total Loss= -$359.34

 

[ApplesVild]

I don't count units but I bet around £200 In total and ended my night with £455.. Some of my winners




I was calling Volk, Jared and Jessica call week

 

[Johnny Bones Jones]

3rd consecutive negative card for me (previously had 6 consecutive cards with positive returns before this skid)

Thiago Alves -106 1u
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 130 1.5u
Kurt Holobaugh 126 1u
Irene Aldana -280 4u
José Aldo -144 1.25u
Raoni Barcelos -410 5u

Results: -2u

Analysis: Barcelos was an excellent call and I got lucky getting him at -410 before line got steamed, Aldana fight was getting a little tense in the 3rd round until she got a surprise sub, disappointed in Kurt (why he decided to grapple and not strike is beyond me), I was okay taking a chance on T.Alves but Aldo fight really surprised in how he got outworked by Volk.

I'm hoping the next card, I can find 1 or 2 fights that will land me in the positive column, on to rochester!

 

[Jordan3399]

Bleh. Missed both bets, and then lost another 1.17u betting Rose at +122. Even worse, I bet 5u on Chandler against Patricio Pitbull, for a grand total (UFC + Bellator) loss of 9.77u. Only made 2 live-bets, both of which canceled each other out.

The Correia-Aldana GTD and Rose bets were clearly good, especially given those odds, but were killed by fluky shit. Happens. It's fighting.

I clearly missed something with regards to Araujo as I didn't see anything remotely good in her footage, and thought Bernardo would take her down at will. Meh, shouldn't pay the juice on WMMA, despite the many factors that seemed ridiculous there, like going up 2 (!) weight classes or having 3 days' notice.

What about the Chandler-Patricio Freire bet? Chandler's chin is clearly gone. That was hard to guess based on his last fights; he was momentarily knocked down against both Yamauchi and Primus, but they were both big lightweights who caught him at the perfect time, and he recovered quickly each time.

Should I have guessed that a small featherweight who couldn't finish, and had very, very close fights against Dan Weichel and Emmanuel Sanchez would knock Chandler out so easily? There weren't many other paths to victory for Patricio Pitbull.

In retrospect, I only regret the Bernardo bet. Props to the people who did well this week. And for those who haven't, just more motivation to study the footage extra well for next week!

Rose bet was not good, pressure was everything and you clearly don't understand that

You had zero reason to think Araujo would be taken down at will, where on tape did anything suggest that? Also she clearly had a big striking advantage on tape

Chandlers chin isn't clearly gone he got caught flush behind the ear taking his equilibrium and letting him get pounded out

Bethe has been Ko'd twice and Aldana was better everywhere. Hitting Aldana at -2xx was the smart play.

This is why you'll never be good betting Paul, you refuse to acknowledge the reality of your errors and just consistently make excuses for them and talk shit. If you really only regret the Talita bet then I don't know what to say.

 

[Austisthunder]

Bethe has been Ko'd twice and Aldana was better everywhere. Hitting Aldana at -2xx was the smart play.

For the sake of honesty im willing to say 4U on aldana at -250 was extremely not good lol

 

[Jordan3399]

For the sake of honesty im willing to say 4U on aldana at -250 was extremely not good lol

I don't think it was terrible based on the tape, previously Aldana threw combos happily and wasn't scared of exchanges like the war she had in the last fight. Bethe didn't have a kick threat which had given Aldana problems before either. Of course you can make the argument that betting vaguely big on WMMA is just Degen in itself. Aldana defiantly underperformed though and didn't look like -400 she got bet up to, just seemed to not want to throw any combos despite having a lot of success when she did. My average price on her was -227 and she was up on all judges scorecards 2-0 (which I do disagree with) before the stoppage so I mean it could of been a lot worse and I know a lot of guys were very heavy on her even compared to me and at a worse price. Still doesn't necessarily justify it of course.

Tbh I was more annoyed with the Barcelos bet he made that way too competitive trying to get into a firefight.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Rose bet was not good, pressure was everything and you clearly don't understand that

Jesus. It's not enough that you caught a huge out while betting a large amount on Andrade at minus odds. You're actually triggered enough by me in the other topic, stupid, or drunk/high to actually argue that Rose at +122 was a bad bet?

Wow. Again, why does anyone else on the forum take Lying Little Jordie seriously?

You had zero reason to think Araujo would be taken down at will, where on tape did anything suggest that?

Her being easily taken down twice by a badly hurt, desperate Japanese 115 pounder 2 fights ago. Which I mentioned in the topic.

Chandlers chin isn't clearly gone he got caught flush behind the ear taking his equilibrium and letting him get pounded out

HAHA.

Bethe has been Ko'd twice and Aldana was better everywhere. Hitting Aldana at -2xx was the smart play.

Except I didn't bet Bethe, little doofus. I bet the FGD, which it had every sign of doing before an inexplicable attempt at grappling by Bethe to cement round 3 and a loose armbar she immediately tapped to. Again, one has to accept such crazy variance in a fight, but it's not something anyone can predict, and if you somehow did, you would have hit Aldana's +1225 sub line.

And no, given that Correia was about 2 minutes and 1 bad decision away from a 50/50 decision at worst, -2xx was a dumb bet in retrospect.

, you refuse to acknowledge the reality of your errors and just consistently make excuses for them and talk shit.

Projection is a cruel disease!

 

[Soccer Steve]

For the sake of honesty im willing to say 4U on aldana at -250 was extremely not good lol

Think someone posted the judge slip showing all 3 had Aldana at 2-0 prior to the finish.

 

[Red_2]

Think someone posted the judge slip showing all 3 had Aldana at 2-0 prior to the finish.

Not gonna lie, I was sweating the fuck out of a robbery. Aldana was playing a risky game, albeit most of Bethes strikes landing on her shoulders and arms, brazilian judges can be swayed by the crowd.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Not gonna lie, I was sweating the fuck out of a robbery. Aldana was playing a risky game, albeit most of Bethes strikes landing on her shoulders and arms, brazilian judges can be swayed by the crowd.

Honest truth? 3 times I had a post written saying “robbery for a Brazilian fighting in Brazil is becoming overblown” but I kept deleting it...probably because I said the opposite a few times lol. The judging was dead on last night. Robberies will always happen, but I will never again let it push me into a play. I’d much rather pick correctly and get robbed than pick shitty and benefit from a robbery. The latter is surely better in the long term.

 

[Red_2]

That's pretty hilarious, God damn. Judges in Brazil really improving. The rate of robberies and shitty judging seems to have really evened out, and become less frequent. Thank fuck for us betting on the sport.

 

[Austisthunder]

Think someone posted the judge slip showing all 3 had Aldana at 2-0 prior to the finish.

While true, as an aldana bettor, i was quite confident i was gonna lose until bethe went full Brazilian with that td attempt

Sometimes the judges give you a gift but im willing to man up enough to say that was a square bet that cashed lol

 

[ApplesVild]

Honest truth? 3 times I had a post written saying “robbery for a Brazilian fighting in Brazil is becoming overblown” but I kept deleting it...probably because I said the opposite a few times lol. The judging was dead on last night. Robberies will always happen, but I will never again let it push me into a play. I’d much rather pick correctly and get robbed than pick shitty and benefit from a robbery. The latter is surely better in the long term.

Really agree with you on the judging, I kept on expecting the robberies and they never came. Good that they had proper refs to and not usual bald black guy they have for Brazillia cards, that guy sucks

 

[mposhtkouhi]

I think you've got a problem.

I went 6-6 in my fighter bets and 0-9 in my fight ending props and won 34.50 not to bad

 

[t6p]

1u Namajunas +105 -1u
0.5u Namajunas NSC +155 -0.5u

0.1u Volkanovski RD3 +1250 -0.1u

Live:
1u Volkanovski -150 +0.67u

NET: -0.93u

Glad I kept it small on this card. Only regret is not putting another unit down on Volkanovski after the first round when he was + money.