UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes

[Hater Hater]

With the Cerrone/Ferg fight, is anyone who is backing Ferg a bit worried that they're somewhat both slow fighters to get started?

Cerrone tends to struggle when someone comes straight out ultra aggressive and puts him away early, whereas Ferguson tends to start a bit slow then drown you with his pace?

Feel like it works in Cerrones favour somewhat as it might allow him to avoid to get in a rhythm himself and he's no issue with a high output once he's had the first round to get there.

In terms of wrestling I think of anyone initiates it, it'll end up with Cerrone on top and think he's good enough to avoid getting subbed in that position.

Despite both guys being finishers, I can kind of see it going to a decision. I think both will be able to avoid getting submitted and Ferguson has amazing recovery if/when he gets rocked.

Similarly, I think if you don't put Cerrone away in the first 7.5 minutes, you're probably not going to finish him.

I think I can legit see this going to a decision and it being mad close.

What about Cerrone’s liver? Tony does like to work the body.

 

[Hater Hater]

I think my biggest lean at the moment is aljo > munhoz

Hes going to have so much height/reach and a wrestling advantage

Agreed. I think Aljo takes this pretty easy. Munhoz’s is a game fighter but I don’t think he has the skill set to give Sterling trouble. IMO it will look like the Rivera fight.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Agreed. I think Aljo takes this pretty easy. Munhoz’s is a game fighter but I don’t think he has the skill set to give Sterling trouble. IMO it will look like the Rivera fight.

Never backing up, always coming forward, full trust in an iron chin, legit KO power, horrible leg kicks. That is the exact recipe to beat, if not finish, Sterling.

 

[Hater Hater]

Never backing up, always coming forward, full trust in an iron chin, legit KO power, horrible leg kicks. That is the exact recipe to beat, if not finish, Sterling.

I watched the Font vs Munhoz right and, I gotta say, I can see where your coming from. Font was piecing Munhoz up until he got tagged and immediately subbed with the nastiest one arm guillotine. Still, I have faith in Sterlings ability to clinch or wrestle when the pressure gets bad while not being subbed. It’s a closer fight than I thought but I am still leaning towards a UD for Sterling.

 

[NonPhixion]

I’m on Ferg via DEC for 2u.
Current line on him is pretty disrespectful imo. Not sure where cowboy wins this other than a head-kick KO. He sure as sh*t ain’t submitting Ferg. I think Ferg’s pace will be too much, and I can see him cruise to a 30-27 decision. He will pressure cowboy much like he did to Pettis, and won’t give cowboy many opportunities to set up combos like he loves to do. It seems to me that people are too harsh when they say Ferg is ‘hittable’ or has been rocked in every fight. I don’t buy into this theory at all. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Ferg in real trouble, maybe the Lando fight? Even then, he managed to finish him. You look at the tape when Lee had him mounted, none of his punches were landing on Ferg at all. Look at the Pettis fight and sure he had him rocked for half a second, but he has insane recovery and killer instincts, the second time Pettis landed flush, Ferg cut him up bad before going into guard, as someone mentioned.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I watched the Font vs Munhoz right and, I gotta say, I can see where your coming from. Font was piecing Munhoz up until he got tagged and immediately subbed with the nastiest one arm guillotine. Still, I have faith in Sterlings ability to clinch or wrestle when the pressure gets bad while not being subbed. It’s a closer fight than I thought but I am still leaning towards a UD for Sterling.

Font doesnt have The wrestling like Sterling.

 

[Omni1]

Agreed. I think Aljo takes this pretty easy. Munhoz’s is a game fighter but I don’t think he has the skill set to give Sterling trouble. IMO it will look like the Rivera fight.

 

[Beans & Cornbread]

Weird. I dont see Wineland vs Popov being listed on UFC or Sherdog. Popov as an underdog seems like a great bet.

 

[Gugabe]

Weird. I dont see the Wineland vs Popov being listed on UFC or Sherdog. Popov as an underdog seems like a great bet.

Popov hasn't even competed against second-tier regional opposition. He's lost rounds striking to Chinese nobodies. Wineland's a bit of a concern due to his age (Though Popov is actually older at 35) and general reluctance to offensively wrestle... but he just got robbed against a top 20 UFC BW & is now fighting a dude who has literally no relevant wins.

I'm assuming people blind punting on Popov due to his nationality is why the line's so close.

 

[Beans & Cornbread]

Popov hasn't even competed against second-tier regional opposition. He's lost rounds striking to Chinese nobodies. Wineland's a bit of a concern due to his age (Though Popov is actually older at 35) and general reluctance to offensively wrestle... but he just got robbed against a top 20 UFC BW & is now fighting a dude who has literally no relevant wins.

I'm assuming people blind punting on Popov due to his nationality is why the line's so close.

Really? Which rounds did he lose, because looking at Tapology he only lost to other Russians and pretty much finished all the asians within the first 2 rounds. Riding a 10 fight win streak.

Despite the age, Eddie has a lot of miles on him. Rarely ever fights anymore and will be coming back from a neck surgery.

Popov is training out of Tiger MT probably sparring with Yan and Volkanovsky, had Cody Garbrandt out there last year.

 

[ApplesVild]

Is anyone else just not betting the Cowboy/Ferg fight at all? I really believe Ferguson dominates and probably gets s finish but I want to be able to just enjoy the fight rather than sweat it if it ends up close... And knowing Tony he'll end up taking a big shot and some point and looking like he's done

 

[And]

Really? Which rounds did he lose, because looking at Tapology he only lost to other Russians and pretty much finished all the asians within the first 2 rounds. Riding a 10 fight win streak.

Despite the age, Eddie has a lot of miles on him. Rarely ever fights anymore and will be coming back from a neck surgery.

Popov is training out of Tiger MT probably sparring with Yan and Volkanovsky, had Cody Garbrandt out there last year.

In the rematch with Getu Hexi he was probably down 2 rounds before pulling off a crane kick KO with less than 2 minutes left of the third round.



When was the last time Volkanovski and Garbrandt actually were at Tiger MT? Garbrandt might have stopped by the gym for a week or so while on vacation but I'm pretty confident he hasn't sparred with Popov. Popov has been at Tiger for years and still hasn't shown anything close to the level of Wineland. I'd be very surprised if he suddenly looks like a completely different fighter at 35 years of age.

In my opinion his only chance to win is if Wineland has completely fallen off a cliff, and if that's the case, I'd still give Wineland a good chance to win anyway.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Good analysis, but here's the problem; Chookagian does a poor job of taking advantage of an opponent's lack of defense (including most recently against Eye), fights timidly to the point of not even trying to counter in very safe circumstances, and is simply going to have one 50/50 decision after another. She lost her last one after winning the last few before then.

True, that’s why I’m passing even though I favour Chook to win.

 

[Beans & Cornbread]

In the rematch with Getu Hexi he was probably down 2 rounds before pulling off a crane kick KO with less than 2 minutes left of the third round.



When was the last time Volkanovski and Garbrandt actually were at Tiger MT? Garbrandt might have stopped by the gym for a week or so while on vacation but I'm pretty confident he hasn't sparred with Popov. Popov has been at Tiger for years and still hasn't shown anything close to the level of Wineland. I'd be very surprised if he suddenly looks like a completely different fighter at 35 years of age.

In my opinion his only chance to win is if Wineland has completely fallen off a cliff, and if that's the case, I'd still give Wineland a good chance to win anyway.

So one guy won rounds by taking him down. Its pretty obvious he's the better striker though. The person who quoted me said he's dropping rounds to chinese guys. Who else?

Both Volkanovski and Garbrandt were there last year. Looks like Volk joined the team the same year Popov did in 2014. But since his last fight he's moved onto City Kickboxing in his own country.


Other than his MMA fights he's has some championships in MT but there doesnt seem to be any stats on it. However, there are at least a few of his MT fights online for what thats worth.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

Yeah, I changed my mind. I will bet Wineland-Popov.

At current odds I have to take Wineland. He wins this fight probably 70% of the time. The age and damage over the years is a concern but Popov is throwing barely anything, is even older than Eddie with no high ceiling and if Wineland actually tries to wrestle him, he will win easily. Popov has competitive fights with complete bums, Wineland was robbed against a top 20 UFC bantamweight. Wineland will also be the one moving forward which is always a good thing. He keeps his hands low though which he really shouldn’t here because there is no takedown threat. I think he can handle the leg kicks as well with range management. He avoids them pretty good. The straight punch counter to Popov‘s leg kicks will be there.

1.75u only because I do believe Wineland is quite shot and I don’t like betting over the hill UFC vets but Popov is not an extremely improving young talent.

 

[And]

So one guy won rounds by taking him down. Its pretty obvious he's the better striker though. The person who quoted me said he's dropping rounds to chinese guys. Who else?

Both Volkanovski and Garbrandt were there last year. Looks like Volk joined the team the same year Popov did in 2014. But since his last fight he's moved onto City Kickboxing in his own country.


Other than his MMA fights he's has some championships in MT but there doesnt seem to be any stats on it. However, there are at least a few of his MT fights online for what thats worth.

I haven't seen him dropping rounds to any other Chinese but I haven't been able to find all of his fights. Maybe somebody else could post links if they found them.

I don't agree that it's obvious he's the better striker. He got knocked down in the first and didn't do anything standing at all, did nothing in the second until he got taken down and controlled for the rest of the round, did almost nothing in the third until the front kick that knocked out his opponent's mouth piece out, and subsequently the KO. Keep in mind this was against a 5'4" guy who had a record of 4-2 fighting in 3rd tier Chinese regional MMA.

He was taken down and controlled for two minutes by Yundong Chen but still managed to win the round. Clearly Chen was a complete beginner making his debut and had never even trained any striking in his life.



Where did you see that Wineland is coming of neck surgery? The information I found was that he had neck surgery in July 2017 and has fought afterwards.

 

[Jordan3399]

Really? Which rounds did he lose, because looking at Tapology he only lost to other Russians and pretty much finished all the asians within the first 2 rounds. Riding a 10 fight win streak.

Despite the age, Eddie has a lot of miles on him. Rarely ever fights anymore and will be coming back from a neck surgery.

Popov is training out of Tiger MT probably sparring with Yan and Volkanovsky, had Cody Garbrandt out there last year.

TMT is a huge gym packed with fighters. Doubtful any of those guys trained together and Volkanovski hasn't trained there full time in a long time. Think you underestimate the size of the gym and how it operates.

 

[Beans & Cornbread]

I haven't seen him dropping rounds to any other Chinese but I haven't been able to find all of his fights. Maybe somebody else could post links if they found them.

I don't agree that it's obvious he's the better striker. He got knocked down in the first and didn't do anything standing at all, did nothing in the second until he got taken down and controlled for the rest of the round, did almost nothing in the third until the front kick that knocked out his opponent's mouth piece out, and subsequently the KO. Keep in mind this was against a 5'4" guy who had a record of 4-2 fighting in 3rd tier Chinese regional MMA.

He was taken down and controlled for two minutes by Yundong Chen but still managed to win the round. Clearly Chen was a complete beginner making his debut and had never even trained any striking in his life.



Where did you see that Wineland is coming of neck surgery? The information I found was that he had neck surgery in July 2017 and has fought afterwards.

He wasnt knocked down. He was pressuring the guy and threw an overhand. The guy ducked under and pushed him down. It was a balance issue. Even taken down he mitigated damage on the bottom and was actively throwing elbows and threatening subs. Standing he connected with nice kicks, worked the jab, landed some good rights. He wasnt losing rd 3 in anyway either. The other guy landed no strikes, got thrown on the ground and kicked repeatedly. Popov KO'd both these dudes.

The Wineland interview was old. Stupid website put it up with the article for his upcoming fight.
https://www.fightful.com/mma/report-eddie-wineland-faces-grigory-popov-ufc-238

 

[Gugabe]

Really? Which rounds did he lose, because looking at Tapology he only lost to other Russians and pretty much finished all the asians within the first 2 rounds. Riding a 10 fight win streak.

Despite the age, Eddie has a lot of miles on him. Rarely ever fights anymore and will be coming back from a neck surgery.

Popov is training out of Tiger MT probably sparring with Yan and Volkanovsky, had Cody Garbrandt out there last year.

You're literally doing a full-on, half-assed wikicap here. I'd maxbet Wineland if he was a consistent wrestler. You considering putting money on Popov at this line is incredibly poor form, the laziest of wikicapping.

 

[Beans & Cornbread]

You're literally doing a full-on, half-assed wikicap here. I'd maxbet Wineland if he was a consistent wrestler. You considering putting money on Popov at this line is incredibly poor form, the laziest of wikicapping.

Go for it. As an underdog I see value in the new guy. You still didnt answer my question btw.