UFC 242 Khabib vs Poirier

[San Griente]

There are plenty of people that never wrestled or fought in any way, but can write an amazing analysis and breakdown of fights.
Khabib has A-level athleticism, you cannot deny this helps out a lot to mask any inefficiencies, flaws etc. I forgot - and he is monster for the weightclass and has cardio of a flyweight.

Luke Thomas does these incredibly intricate breakdowns that go on for like half an hour. But if I’m not mistaken, he has never fought.

Is that preposterous? Is he talking out his butt? I don’t have the experience to judge.

Just got done listening to Chael (yes, I know he’s a fraudster) where he says, in effect, complicated breakdowns are horseshit.

 

[San Griente]

Feel free to tell me to stop serial posting if this is annoying. Just have a lot of questions.

When I started gambling, I thought it would be a good idea to find fights where the Tapology voting was way off from the posted odds. It seemed like if large numbers of the most hardcore obsessives were producing a result divergent from the odds, there was a place to make money.

I quickly found out that the Tapology voters don’t know shit.

Then I tried the same thing with the more successful touts on Betmma, and that didn’t work well either.

Is it possible that no one really knows what they’re talking about?

I feel like the UFC matchmakers have a pretty good handle on who beats whom.

 

[It-is-what-it-is]

Me this Sunday

 

[edole]

im taking felder/barb ends itd

+105

i think someone is getting stopped

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Everything I’ve read says that value betting is the way to go. But I can’t bet on a guy if I don’t really think he’s going to win.

Rethink this immediately or you have zero chance of long term success.

 

[zeckdo]

what do you guys think about a madge and moras parley?

both have a good chance of losing. not worth it.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Do you think this could just be a lucky streak? Is is possible for a lucky streak to hold up over the course of 75 bets

Congrats. Hope you keep it going. But the answer to both questions is a resounding yes.

 

[Card]

 

[ill800]

Feel free to tell me to stop serial posting if this is annoying. Just have a lot of questions.

When I started gambling, I thought it would be a good idea to find fights where the Tapology voting was way off from the posted odds. It seemed like if large numbers of the most hardcore obsessives were producing a result divergent from the odds, there was a place to make money.

I quickly found out that the Tapology voters don’t know shit.

Then I tried the same thing with the more successful touts on Betmma, and that didn’t work well either.

Is it possible that no one really knows what they’re talking about?

I feel like the UFC matchmakers have a pretty good handle on who beats whom.

Sounds like you are trying to find a cheat code to beat bookies like using tapology or betting all Chinese.

Definitely a long term losing strategy

Watching fight tape, managing your bankroll properly and finding value in lines will bring you long term success.

 

[San Griente]

Sounds like you are trying to find a cheat code to beat bookies like using tapology or betting all Chinese.

Definitely a long term losing strategy

Watching fight tape, managing your bankroll properly and finding value in lines will bring you long term success.

yeah, I was. Those were my very first bets. I hadn’t heard of any of the fighters and looked for shortcuts as an experiment

 

[Kyle Stephens]

The only person that I personally know that actually wins something from MMA is my mom. Who doesn't know shit about MMA. She just puts a little something on an underdog fighters every now and then. Or she puts 3-4 favourites in a parlay. She win like half of these bets. It's a dumb luck if you ask me. She knows who is Khabib, tho. I asked her if she will bet him and she replied "No, there is no money in him. I will take my chances with the other guy."
And I personally predicted win for Khabib. This is final - I guess Poirier will win now

 

[San Griente]

oh oops, the all-Chinese thing was more recently.

But do you really think straight-Chinese was a poor strategy in such an event? Shit, you had Dana say, at the pre-fight press conference and right in front of Andrade, “Just think what it’s gonna be like to have a Chinese mma star!”

I think that in the limited instance of a foreign event where there are larger factors at work than cardio and jabs, straight-Chinese was a choice than looking minutely at the fighers’ records and tape. I don’t expect my similiar strategy tomorrow to win 6/7 fights, but I bet it comes out ahead.

I’ll report the results.

Thank you for the advice, though. I really do appreciate it.

 

[mmaday4day]

How is Don madge not -400 lol

Madge is the rightful favourite but -400 would be absolute madness! Madge is still a low level guy in the division and Ziam is actually not that terrible..

 

[mmaday4day]

what do you guys think about a madge and moras parley?

I don't mind putting Madge in a hail mary parlay but I wouldn't even bet 1$ on Moras.. 50/50 WMMA fight

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Just got done listening to Chael (yes, I know he’s a fraudster) where he says, in effect, complicated breakdowns are horseshit.

You probably shouldn't take analysis/gambling advice from a guy whose track record is as putrid as the Cursed Greek's, and whose "insight" is some of the mind-numbingly dumbest, most irrelevant shit imaginable.

And this is coming from a Chael fan.

I feel like the UFC matchmakers have a pretty good handle on who beats whom.

Not at all. DWTNCS this season was a clown car of -500 to even -1000 favorites being exposed and blown out and Dana being pissed about it.

Nevermind that every time there is a main event or big fight which Dana and company want to go one way (Till vs. Masvidal, Ladd vs. GDR, Andrade vs. Rose, really big fights like McGregor vs. Khabib, etc.) it goes the opposite direction.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

oh oops, the all-Chinese thing was more recently.

But do you really think straight-Chinese was a poor strategy in such an event? Shit, you had Dana say, at the pre-fight press conference and right in front of Andrade, “Just think what it’s gonna be like to have a Chinese mma star!”

I think that in the limited instance of a foreign event where there are larger factors at work than cardio and jabs, straight-Chinese was a choice than looking minutely at the fighers’ records and tape. I don’t expect my similiar strategy tomorrow to win 6/7 fights, but I bet it comes out ahead.

I’ll report the results.

Thank you for the advice, though. I really do appreciate it.

How far do you want to take that strategy, though?

There have been a bunch of Fight Nights in Canada where Canadian fighters got absolutely slaughtered, even the favorites.

UFC 237 in Brazil featured Brazilian after Brazilian losing horribly, until finally Andrade prevailed as a small favorite in the main event after getting the shit beaten out of her for the first 1.5 rounds.

Hell, even the last time the UFC was in China (Shanghai, UFC Fight Night 141), the performance of Chinese fighters was decidedly average.

Jingliang, Yan, Song, and Zhang won as big favorites (better than -500 in some cases), and Wu cashed as a roughly +300 dog, however Yaozong and Song lost as small favorites, Sumu lost easily as only a small dog, and Liu won a 50/50 decision most saw for Day despite being a moderate favorite.

You would have made money betting AGAINST the Chinese fighter for the close odds match-ups.

Don't make the mistake of trying to find some kind of secret pattern from a single event and single factor like that.

 

[phased1]

I don't mind putting Madge in a hail mary parlay but I wouldn't even bet 1$ on Moras.. 50/50 WMMA fight

Kk thanks

 

[San Griente]

You probably shouldn't take analysis/gambling advice from a guy whose track record is as putrid as the Cursed Greek's, and whose "insight" is some of the mind-numbingly dumbest, most irrelevant shit imaginable.

And this is coming from a Chael fan.



Not at all. DWTNCS this season was a clown car of -500 to even -1000 favorites being exposed and blown out and Dana being pissed about it.

Nevermind that every time there is a main event or big fight which Dana and company want to go one way (Till vs. Masvidal, Ladd vs. GDR, Andrade vs. Rose, really big fights like McGregor vs. Khabib, etc.) it goes the opposite direction.

Very good points. I would certainly never put money on a Chael pick because he picked it. Nor ever assume that what he says is what he actually believes.
As to DWTNCS, why assume that their goal is to match guys evenly?
But thanks for pointing out that betting the home team doesn’t always work.

 

[San Griente]

Nevermind that every time there is a main event or big fight which Dana and company want to go one way (Till vs. Masvidal, Ladd vs. GDR, Andrade vs. Rose, really big fights like McGregor vs. Khabib, etc.) it goes the opposite direction.

BTW, how did you find out which way Dana’s bosses wanted those fights to go? I would think they keep that info to themselves and Dana.

 

[Sono07]

Nevermind that every time there is a main event or big fight which Dana and company want to go one way (Till vs. Masvidal, Ladd vs. GDR, Andrade vs. Rose, really big fights like McGregor vs. Khabib, etc.) it goes the opposite direction.

I agree with the rest, hell even Herb was more interested in watching the fight than any of Conor's fouls. Idk about Ladd though I feel like that was a trap for anyone looking at her record. She just plodded forward to clinch like a penguin with separation anxiety. I think it was a mercyful stoppage and every minute of that 25 would have looked the same.