UFC Fight Night: Smith v Rakic

DonQ94 said:

Nice analysis on Rakic and Smith. I am a bit conflicted about this fight. On the one hand I think Rakic is too violent and powerful, especially after Anthony's loss against Glover. But I also feel like the line is too wide and Smith can eek out a decision if he manages his gas a bit better.
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Love these breakdowns, they are amazing
 
2U on Maki Pitolo +125 odds on Bet365.

I believe this fight is really more of a 50/50 fight so there is more value on Pitolo's line. I also like that he has more experience in fights, proven to have decent output, and is tough. I don't think he is a great grappler, but he is a bit ahead of Impa Kasanganay. His cardio isn't the greatest but I believe they are at similar levels in that realm.

In Impa Kasanganay's DWTNCS fight he gave up a horrendous takedown at the end of RD2 and generally looked athletic but not technically sound when grappling. There were clear positional advances he could have gone for but chose not to which makes me question his grappling prowess. He simply looks to be more green and unexperienced.

Impa could tag Pitolo when he decides to bang in the pocket and I do not rate Pitolo's boxing defense at all. But I still think there is a bit of value of Pitolo at +125.
 
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Ji Yeon Kim seems to be quite a few miles behind Alexa Grasso in terms of striking. Grasso looked really good against KK in terms of her output and speed. Kim is a lot stiffer in her striking and makes herself much more hittable by being slow as molasses and having a less bladed stance. I think -250 is justified here for Grasso. Losing to Esparza, Suarez, and Herrig is nothing to be ashamed of. She is a few levels above Kim in terms of technique IMO.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Agapova vs Dobson is proof to never bet female fights
Grasso should win but its a female fight so 50/50 despite the odds
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Also Lemos v Inoue is proof to always bet female fights when there's value lol

Same with Taila Santos v Meatball Molly

Same with Carla Esparza v Marina Rodriguez

Same with Katlyn Chookagian v Antonina Shevchenko

And as much as it pains me to say it, same with JoJo Calderwood v Jennifer Maia
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Wasn't going to post this one yet, but I saw the odds and ooo baby

Zak Cummings at only 1.75 v Alessio Di Chirico??? Real quick, can anybody tell me what Di Chirico is actually good at?

Gut says Hannah Cifers being a moderate 2.46 dog v Mallory Martin is absurd and only occurring because she looked so pathetic against Agapova, but I'll have to re-tape that one

Gut also says Polyana Viana can't wrestle, so while it'll be ugly, Whitmire should get the W. Again, will need to tape (currently evens)

I get Alexa Grasso is hot, but can anyone really justify Ji Yeon Kim being 3.08 against her? Kim is a BIG girl

As much as I'm definitely getting flamed for this, I really don't think Anthony Smith is that bad a fighter, and again his line feels like recency bias affecting things (he's currently 3.08 against Rakic, feels like he's R1 KO or bust and Anthony Smith doesn't get put down that easy. Feel like this could look like Smith v Oezdemir, or Smith v Gus)

Oh and obviously Agapova is gonna wreck Shana Dobson, but I'm guessing her KO line will be 1.16
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Il respond just because Iv done my preliminary tape. Cummings is so low output and slow, and Di Chirico has been having close fights with Holland and Muradov is probably why odds are close.I actually put a unit on Di Chirico as it will be pick em soon.

Agree with you on Cifers, thing is Martin needs one takedown per round and she usually gets them. She passes to side control immediately. She also mixes the strikes in a bit before shooting, but in the mean time shes eating strikes lol. I think no value on either side atm.

Viana cant wrestle thats true and she also pulls guard which is a sin, but Whitmires striking is not that much better for me to feel confident betting this at pickem.

Kim i was really hoping I would like her as a dog, but shes so slow and low output. Thats one thing Grasso has in spades over her. Kim dosent really do much grappling which is how you threaten Grasso. Although at these odds I might change my mind after bit more research
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Agapova vs Dobson is proof to never bet female fights
Grasso should win but its a female fight so 50/50 despite the odds
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It happened with Timur Valiev too. MMA in general is just so unpredictable, makes it hard to profit.
 
Don't like seeing smith back so early, but at x3.4 gonna play him.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
That makes it easy to profit lmfao

If you're getting super steep lines and there's always a 20% chaos factor, you can make a lot of money just by leaning into the chaos
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How can you predict when the chaos is happening though? There's no point betting on massive underdogs all the time because the vast majority of the time they lose.
 
TrueAscension said:
Really like Smith here at these odds.
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Man so did I at first glance. Then I rewatched that Glover fight and...that was one of those life altering beatings. Smith was too tough for his own good there, and the ref seemed to maybe want him to die. It was maybe a little shy of Cain/JDS 2 and 3, but not by much.

That said, I also can't imagine paying this much juice on Rakic here. So...IDK. Might just take the tiniest stab on Smith rd 3 and Smith dec and look to live bet. I'm also a fan of Smith as a person (seems like a very normal dude who's a dedicated family man, and he seems to shoot straight about most things unlike a lot of guys). Need to set my bias aside too...
 
thehighking said:
How can you predict when the chaos is happening though? There's no point betting on massive underdogs all the time because the vast majority of the time they lose.
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The question is when there's value on the fighter

Jones's losses had near exclusively been split decisions against good competition in ACA. +400 was well steep as a result, especially since Valiev isn't a finisher

Agapova had one fight in the UFC and Shana Dobson had started training at Team Elevation after the KO loss to Priscilla Cachoeira. Agapova also hadn't really left the first round before. Granted I didn't think Shana Dobson had a chance until the commentators mentioned the Team Elevation fact, but +950 was way too steep for near anybody because of the chaos puncher's chance factor of MMA. I bet on the U1.5 because I figured Agapova would go hard in the first, she did, wasn't anticipating the Dobson victory but the fact it came early as a result of Agapova gassing was a logical conclusion

Unless a fighter is an amateur or the favourite is someone like Nunes, +400 or more is always going to indicate value for the underdog since that chaos factor covers about 20% win chance. The rest comes down to just watching tape and considering external factors which may impact the bet
 
Tirimasuperman said:
The question is when there's value on the fighter

Jones's losses had near exclusively been split decisions against good competition in ACA. +400 was well steep as a result, especially since Valiev isn't a finisher

Agapova had one fight in the UFC and Shana Dobson had started training at Team Elevation after the KO loss to Priscilla Cachoeira. Agapova also hadn't really left the first round before. Granted I didn't think Shana Dobson had a chance until the commentators mentioned the Team Elevation fact, but +950 was way too steep for near anybody because of the chaos puncher's chance factor of MMA. I bet on the U1.5 because I figured Agapova would go hard in the first, she did, wasn't anticipating the Dobson victory but the fact it came early as a result of Agapova gassing was a logical conclusion

Unless a fighter is an amateur or the favourite is someone like Nunes, +400 or more is always going to indicate value for the underdog since that chaos factor covers about 20% win chance. The rest comes down to just watching tape and considering external factors which may impact the bet
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Yes but the thing is when the odds are extremely lopsided it's usually for a very good reason. Not sure about the 20% maybe that's accurate enough. I just think you're going to lose money the vast majority of the time so I don't see it being a great tactic. Agree with your last point though if you've done your research and you think the odds are wrong then it's worth taking a chance. Prospect fights are where the profits can be made but it's also tricky because prospects can easily be overrated. I've just been doing parlays lately with mostly favorites to stack the odds somewhat safely. You can risk a small amount and the chance of big profits are there.
 
mkess101 said:
Man so did I at first glance. Then I rewatched that Glover fight and...that was one of those life altering beatings. Smith was too tough for his own good there, and the ref seemed to maybe want him to die. It was maybe a little shy of Cain/JDS 2 and 3, but not by much.

That said, I also can't imagine paying this much juice on Rakic here. So...IDK. Might just take the tiniest stab on Smith rd 3 and Smith dec and look to live bet. I'm also a fan of Smith as a person (seems like a very normal dude who's a dedicated family man, and he seems to shoot straight about most things unlike a lot of guys). Need to set my bias aside too...
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Yeah Smith looked like dog poo poo in his last fight. He gassed really really hard. I also really like him a lot as a person but this is a dude that went 5 with JJ. I think he just tried to get Glover out of there too hard in his last fight so I am hoping he takes a smarter, more methodical approach
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Wait fuck, Smith v Rakic is three rounds???

Still playing Smith because... Well, I already have money on him, but that's really bad news for him
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Yeah, I feel like that's not in favor of Smith,
TrueAscension said:
Yeah Smith looked like dog poo poo in his last fight. He gassed really really hard. I also really like him a lot as a person but this is a dude that went 5 with JJ. I think he just tried to get Glover out of there too hard in his last fight so I am hoping he takes a smarter, more methodical approach
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The fact that this fight is just 3 rounds should lower the chances of Smith gassing really hard. He comes across as a fairly smart dude so he should be able to analyse what cost him against Glover.
 
If you're a 'value side' guy then Smith has to be the play, Rakic isn't the one. He might beat Smith but he's just whatever in my opinion. Dangerous early, when he's not busy getting rocked and dropped repeatedly by Devin Clark that is, but after the first 3/4 minuets that early explosion starts to diminish.

Can't see any reason Smith can't go with a Volkan type of game plan, keep the pressure on and just look to walk Rakic down, keep close and clinch and brawl, look for trips against the fence.

Obviously Smith is a major stunt puller and got pummeled by a geriatric 3 months ago and that has to be accounted for, but if Rakic doesn't get the early big KO (which he may well do) then what happens?

Also Smith was absolutely tooling Glover in the first two rounds, maybe that's all he needs
 
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