UFC Fight Night: Smith v Rakic

[Sono07]

can someone explain why magny decision is -125 and his moneyline is -250? i do not see him finishing robbie.

Recency bias I guess. Maybe we have Ben Askren and Herb Dean to thank.

 

[theTKDguy]

can someone explain why magny decision is -125 and his moneyline is -250? i do not see him finishing robbie.

Agreed, if you think magny wins might as well go with his dec prop.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

I have no idea why people are so confident in NEIL MAGNY. People are getting persuaded by the price. I can guarantee Magny does not look like a strong favorite in there against a “washed up” Lawler. Magny is not that good, Lawler would have definitively beat Rocco Martin.

 

[mkess101]

I have no idea why people are so confident in NEIL MAGNY. People are getting persuaded by the price. I can guarantee Magny does not look like a strong favorite in there against a “washed up” Lawler. Magny is not that good, Lawler would have definitively beat Rocco Martin.

It's because people know Magny will 100% try to replicate exactly what Colby did to Robbie. And he only needs to do it for 3 rounds (really just 2 of 3 rounds).

I agree that a motivated Robbie who refuses to be held on the cage and who decides to throw punches right away should not be this much a dog vs Magny. But I honestly just don't know how much Robbie cares anymore. If he's content to be backed up against the cage and just try to wing the occasional power shot, Magny may cruise to a decision. If Robbie comes to fight, really fight, he will make these odds seem way off.

I know Magny isn't as good as Colby in terms of this style, but if Robbie fights like he did vs Colby, Magny can still easily still win rounds that way.

To me it just comes down to what you think you're gonna get from Robbie.

 

[sonhow]

If someone from the camp gets Robbie's mindset on point is there anything that Magny can do to stop the two flurries of doom and Robbie gaining the 29-28? Just seems kinda pointless for Robbie to get in there and not even try anything.
Magny doesn't have the power to drop Robbie and his takedowns are not that great.

 

[ill800]

Robbie Lawler is happy to finally be back at UFC on ESPN+ 33, especially because it took longer than he wanted.

Lawler (28-14 MMA, 13-8 UFC) will meet Neil Magny (23-7 MMA, 16-6 UFC) in Saturday’s headliner, which takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The former UFC welterweight champion hasn’t seen action since an August loss to Colby Covington, which marked a three-fight skid for him.

It was Lawler’s hope to not sit out for more than a year, and he said the only reason he didn’t have to wait longer is because Magny’s original opponent, Geoff Neal, was forced out of the matchup due to a health scare.


“I’ve been looking to get back for a while and just couldn’t get anything together, then they just offered this one on a few weeks’ notice and I’m like, ‘All right, I guess I’m going to fight,'” Lawler told reporters, including MMA Junkie, during Wednesday’s UFC on ESPN+ 33 virtual media day. “It is what it is. I’m going to fight. I haven’t fought for a while, so it’s nice to get back in there.”

At 38, Lawler enters UFC on ESPN+ 33 in unchartered career territory. He’s won just once in five attempts since losing the 170-pound belt to Tyron Woodley at UFC 201 in July 2018. He doesn’t seem to be overthinking the situation, though, and said he’s not strapping any major goals to his career outside of beating magny
“Right now I’m just competing,” Lawler said. “One step at a time. You have to get past this fight and showcase your skill and let people know who you are. … Everyone at Sanford (MMA) has done a great job with me, and I’m excited to get out there.”

In what looks on the outside to be a must-win for his career, Lawler doesn’t appear to have any intention of taking a cautious approach to the matchup with Magny. He said he intends to produce the same action he always does in what he hopes is a bounce-back effort.


“I always fight a certain way, and that’s always to try to get in the guy’s face and create a fight and get into a fight,” Lawler said. “That’s what this sport is about, I believe. Obviously guys are technical and you try to use that technique, but when push comes to shove, you try to do some damage in there.”

 

[ill800]

Translation: I’m 38, no where near a title shot. I got decisively beat by magavington in my last fight where I looked pathetic. What am I even fighting for? I guess if I don’t win i could be released. Whatever. I just like fighting, I think. Maybe I’ll try for a couple minutes until things dont go my way. Then I’ll just bob and weave my way to bellator

 

[TrueAscension]

Magny could potentially do the same thing to him. Robbie just sounds so disinterested

Magny is nowhere near the takedown threat that Colby is

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

If the Lawler that fought Askren shows up Magny is going to take a nap. That performance is why I'm betting Lawler here. Hopefully Science Lawler is back with a vengeance.

 

[Red_2]

Translation: I’m 38, no where near a title shot. I got decisively beat by magavington in my last fight where I looked pathetic. What am I even fighting for? I guess if I don’t win i could be released. Whatever. I just like fighting, I think. Maybe I’ll try for a couple minutes until things dont go my way. Then I’ll just bob and weave my way to bellator

I look at Lawler and think, Jesus he kind of lucked out becoming a champ. Maybe I'm just being biased towards his poor performances in these later years in his career.

 

[Sono07]

Magny is at least a little familiar with Robbie. He meantions training at Robbie's gym when he was first starting out. Between the layoff and Lawler only having 2-3 weeks notice I doubt we see the best version of the Ruthless one.

Probably just talk but Neil claims to have left the video games at home for a more serious approach than his last fight as well. Cardio, motivation and recent activity all seem to favor Neil here.

 

[ill800]

Magny is nowhere near the takedown threat that Colby is

He could press him against the cage like he seems to do to everyone, Land a few takedowns. Seems like lawler may
mentally check out If he gets stalled early.

 

[Card]

Alex Caceres (145) vs. Austin Springer (151)*
Hannah Cifers (117)^ vs. Mallory Martin (115.5)

* Springer missed weight by five pounds and was fined 30 percent of his purse
^ Cifers missed weight by one pound and was fined 20 percent of her purse

 

[Broe.]

So springer missing weight by 5 pounds should be in his favour in the grappling department, but it makes you wonder in what kind of shape he is and how his cardio will hold up.

 

[2020Tracked]

So springer missing weight by 5 pounds should be in his favour in the grappling department, but it makes you wonder in what kind of shape he is and how his cardio will hold up.

He looks in good shape, but he hopefully cardio deaths after 2 minuets gets finished

 

[PuertoRican]

Robbie Lawler's fight history during the past 5 years:

• loss vs. Covington (August 2019 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Askren (March 2019 - A controversial stoppage, depending who you ask. I thought he was out and woke back up when Askren let the choke go.)
• loss vs. RDA (December 2017 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• win vs. Cerrone (July 2017 - A 2-1 decision for Lawler; he won R1, lost R2, and R3 was very close.)
• loss vs. Woodley (July 2016 - Quick KO.)
• win vs. Condit (January 2016 - Condit landed almost double the significant strikes and landed the most strikes in every round, but still lost a split-decision. Striking stats are at the bottom of this page.)
• win vs. MacDonald (July 2015) MacDonald was on his way to winning a unanimous decision on all three of the judges scorecards -- I attached the scorecards in the spoiler below -- until his nose shattered via a jab on his nose in Round 5, and he said he could only see black and had to quit.

Spoiler

Lawler hasn't finished anyone in 5 years, and that last finish was against Rory via shattered nose in Round 5. Prior to that, Lawler's last finish was 6+ years ago against Jake Ellenberger. You have to go back to 7+ years ago to see Lawler consistently finishing fights, which is what most people think about when they hear/see Robbie Lawler's name.

 

[PuertoRican]

So springer missing weight by 5 pounds should be in his favour in the grappling department, but it makes you wonder in what kind of shape he is and how his cardio will hold up.

Springer took the fight on 2-3 days notice, missed weight, and got fined 30% of his prize purse.

Seems harsh, considering the position he is in.

 

[TrueAscension]

I look at Lawler and think, Jesus he kind of lucked out becoming a champ. Maybe I'm just being biased towards his poor performances in these later years in his career.

Do you look at Magny and think "jesus he lucked out winning in that last fight?"

 

[StewDogg11]

Translation: I’m 38, no where near a title shot. I got decisively beat by magavington in my last fight where I looked pathetic. What am I even fighting for? I guess if I don’t win i could be released. Whatever. I just like fighting, I think. Maybe I’ll try for a couple minutes until things dont go my way. Then I’ll just bob and weave my way to bellator

Eh if you’ve followed Lawler at all you’d know he’s had an apathetic attitude his entire career.

 

[ill800]

Eh if you’ve followed Lawler at all you’d know he’s at apathetic attitude his entire career.

Definitely haven’t.