UFC Fight Night: Smith v Rakic

PuertoRican said:
Robbie Lawler's fight history during the past 5 years:

• loss vs. Covington (August 2019 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Askren (March 2019 - A controversial stoppage, depending who you ask. I thought he was out and woke back up when Askren let the choke go.)
• loss vs. RDA (December 2017 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• win vs. Cerrone (July 2017 - A 2-1 decision for Lawler; he won R1, lost R2, and R3 was very close.)
• loss vs. Woodley (July 2016 - Quick KO.)
• win vs. Condit (January 2016 - Condit landed almost double the significant strikes and landed the most strikes in every round, but still lost a split-decision. Striking stats are at the bottom of this page.)
• win vs. MacDonald (July 2015) MacDonald was on his way to winning a unanimous decision on all three of the judges scorecards -- I attached the scorecards in the spoiler below -- until his nose shattered via a jab on his nose in Round 5, and he said he could only see black and had to quit.

IMG_1651.0.0.jpg

Lawler hasn't finished anyone in 5 years, and that last finish was against Rory via shattered nose in Round 5. Prior to that, Lawler's last finish was 6+ years ago against Jake Ellenberger. You have to go back to 7+ years ago to see Lawler consistently finishing fights, which is what most people think about when they hear/see Robbie Lawler's name.
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To add onto this, people who are backing Lawler need to ask themselves why he took this fight against Magny on 20 days short notice.

Lawler can fight someone like Magny on a full camp whenever he wants. So why did he accept a short notice fight? I don't think it's because he "just wanted to get back in there." He's at the stage of his career where he can fight almost anyone at welterweight, at any time, on a full camp.

If Lawler needs the money, then I understand. This would mean that he needs quick cash and isn't expecting to win a technical 15-minute decision against someone who will likely beat him via decision. This makes me think that Lawler will start fast in Round 1 like he did against Cerrone, except that with Cerrone he had the ability to take Round 2 off and come back in Round 3 to win a close fight -- Magny won't let Lawler coast to a decision win.

I think Magny will win most of the time in this spot against this version of Lawler in 2020, but I don't feel comfortable betting Magny's decision line, which most people think is his likeliest path to victory.
 
I think I'm going to play Viana by sub @ +500. She is aggressive and has a few sub wins meanwhile Whitmire has 4 sub losses in her career which is her weakness. Think I'm playing Viana ML too.
 
ill800 said:
Definitely haven’t.
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I can’t tell if this was a sarcastic post or not but I wasn’t trying to be rude. It’s just that I don’t think you can take Lawler’s words into account when capping a fight. I still remember Ariel Helwani interviewing him before a Strikeforce card and he was literally staring into space and giving one or two word answers to every question. Then he goes out and knocks out Adlan Amagov with a flying knee in the first round. Magny can absolutely win this fight because sometimes Lawler actually fights apathetically as well unfortunately.
 
@Crimp_Keeper looks like Smith got another tattoo to validate your point. Weird chest piece too, kind of muddling up his whole Lion Heart motif. I do wonder if his commentary duties and new podcast with Laura Sanko have taken any focus from his fighting.
 
Sono07 said:
@Crimp_Keeper looks like Smith got another tattoo to validate your point. Weird chest piece too, kind of muddling up his whole Lion Heart motif. I do wonder if his commentary duties and new podcast with Laura Sanko have taken any focus from his fighting.
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Do you have tattoos? Sometimes you get inspired by a cool piece a buddy gets. Smith was obviously inspired by D-Rod.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Do you have tattoos? Sometimes you get inspired by a cool piece a buddy gets. Smith was obviously inspired by D-Rod.
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I have 2 fairly random pieces myself. To D-Rods credit if the CTE kicks in he can always look down and remember how old he is. Smith looks like he got a punch card and he is still working toward that freebie.

 
PuertoRican said:
Robbie Lawler's fight history during the past 5 years:

• loss vs. Covington (August 2019 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• loss vs. Askren (March 2019 - A controversial stoppage, depending who you ask. I thought he was out and woke back up when Askren let the choke go.)
• loss vs. RDA (December 2017 - Lawler looked lost throughout this fight.)
• win vs. Cerrone (July 2017 - A 2-1 decision for Lawler; he won R1, lost R2, and R3 was very close.)
• loss vs. Woodley (July 2016 - Quick KO.)
• win vs. Condit (January 2016 - Condit landed almost double the significant strikes and landed the most strikes in every round, but still lost a split-decision. Striking stats are at the bottom of this page.)
• win vs. MacDonald (July 2015) MacDonald was on his way to winning a unanimous decision on all three of the judges scorecards -- I attached the scorecards in the spoiler below -- until his nose shattered via a jab on his nose in Round 5, and he said he could only see black and had to quit.

IMG_1651.0.0.jpg

Lawler hasn't finished anyone in 5 years, and that last finish was against Rory via shattered nose in Round 5. Prior to that, Lawler's last finish was 6+ years ago against Jake Ellenberger. You have to go back to 7+ years ago to see Lawler consistently finishing fights, which is what most people think about when they hear/see Robbie Lawler's name.
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I 100% agree Askren was out and woke back up. I think after Lawler's last performance, he will come out aggressive with a good shot to finish.
 
Cifers is the size of an ant how did she miss weight lol. She's lucky to not be released yet with 3 fight skid and she comes here missing weight.. shameful.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Cifers is the size of an ant how did she miss weight lol. She's lucky to not be released yet with 3 fight skid and she comes here missing weight.. shameful.
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Shameful is a bit harsh. I'll never understand why people wig out over someone missing weight, especially by a small amount. I can only think that people have been conditioned by Dana White to think that missing weight is the end of the world. It's not cheating. To compesate for missing weight, they give up 30% of their purse, and I believe the other fighter can always back out if they feel they're at a huge disadvantage for someone going overweight by 1 pound (obviously that would hurt they're pay as well). If you wanna say it's unprofessional, I get that. This is also her 3rd fight in 4 months amidst a pandemic and she's never missed before that I'm aware of.
 
matthew55 said:
Shameful is a bit harsh. I'll never understand why people wig out over someone missing weight, especially by a small amount. I can only think that people have been conditioned by Dana White to think that missing weight is the end of the world. It's not cheating. To compesate for missing weight, they give up 30% of their purse, and I believe the other fighter can always back out if they feel they're at a huge disadvantage for someone going overweight by 1 pound (obviously that would hurt they're pay as well). If you wanna say it's unprofessional, I get that. This is also her 3rd fight in 4 months amidst a pandemic and she's never missed before that I'm aware of.
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Its usually only 20% not sure why the kid fighting Caceres got 30%. And it’s not just Dana fighters in general think it’s very disrespectful and unprofessional to blow off making weight. And Dana has every right to be pissed because if a fighter misses weight in a title fight he can’t win the title which is a bad look if he wins. It is extremely shameful when you bust your ass to make weight only to have someone like Anthony Johnson blow it off and miss by 12 pounds.
 
StewDogg11 said:
Its usually only 20% not sure why the kid fighting Caceres got 30%. And it’s not just Dana fighters in general think it’s very disrespectful and unprofessional to blow off making weight. And Dana has every right to be pissed because if a fighter misses weight in a title fight he can’t win the title which is a bad look if he wins. It is extremely shameful when you bust your ass to make weight only to have someone like Anthony Johnson blow it off and miss by 12 pounds.
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Title fights are different, not what I'm talkin about. Also not talkin about missing weight by 12 pounds, that's obviously ridiculous. She missed weight by a pound, hardly shameful.
 
matthew55 said:
Title fights are different, not what I'm talkin about. Also not talkin about missing weight by 12 pounds, that's obviously ridiculous. She missed weight by a pound, hardly shameful.
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Maybe not to you but to actual fighters it is. Look at Daniel Pineda’s post fight interview after the beatdown he laid on Herbert Burns.
 
matthew55 said:
I 100% agree Askren was out and woke back up. I think after Lawler's last performance, he will come out aggressive with a good shot to finish.
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pretty sure he meant Robbie was asleep but this is all mma math

Magnys never fought anyone on the level of Lawler who is basically a go for broke fuck your mouth fighter. Can Neil fight him from the outside or try and take him down and win by decision? Well ya the odds say that. Can Lawler slap him like a bitch? Absolutely. I’m on the plus money side myself
 
TrueAscension said:
pretty sure he meant Robbie was asleep but this is all mma math

Magnys never fought anyone on the level of Lawler who is basically a go for broke fuck your mouth fighter. Can Neil fight him from the outside or try and take him down and win by decision? Well ya the odds say that. Can Lawler slap him like a bitch? Absolutely. I’m on the plus money side myself
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Oh ya lol that is what he meant. I skimmed thru but I guess my point is I thought Askren was out and woken back up before he got Lawler in the bulldog choke, and I think he"ll mimick a more aggressive approach like that
 
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