Taped Kyle Nelson v Billy Quarantillo and... It's pretty much priced correctly. In theory Kyle Nelson has a puncher's chance given Quarantillo's chin didn't look super stable v Spike Carlyle. In practice, Kyle Nelson has zero ground game and Quarantillo is a BJJ wizard who never stops looking for the finish. Seems like a pretty clear Quarantillo ITD to me
Re the obvious argument of 'he didn't stop Spike Carlyle", I really don't think Spike is that bad. Dude hits crazy hard, attacks like a fucking wildman (which is difficult to fight against because it's a constant barrage of offence AND you're never really sure what he's going to do), and genuinely has pretty decent submission defence (which I guess is to be expected considering he's been training BJJ for 11 years under Mark Munoz, who beat Demian Maia and was only submitted twice in his entire career
Re the obvious argument of "but Kyle Nelson knocked out Polo Reyes", he was only able to rock him because he made Reyes uncomfortable in the clinch. There are some rumours Quarantillo sleeps in the clinch - It's where he's comfortable and wants to be because of the ease of BJJ transitions from there
If anyone is on Nelson I'd love to hear why, because I'm even considering Quarantillo straight at 1.5