Elections Biden Surges to 14-Point Lead Over Trump After First Debate

[drstrangelov]

The Economist is currently giving Trump a 4% chance of winning the electoral college.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

I guess the fact that they’re not an American news outlet gives them a little more freedom to make big, early predictions. Less cost to the Economist if they get it wrong, since their primary audience isn’t looking to them for insights into American elections.

We know these types of analyses, chance to win, are pretty meaningless. They’re not that far off from Nate Silver’s forecast though, and he really can’t afford to be wrong again.

 

[hillelslovak87]

I love the "removal of ballot boxes" one, it shows how ignorant you are.

You do realize the Dems install ballot boxes everywhere and then encourage illegal voting correct?

The removal of the boxes was a measure to contain election interference.

You are......such a dumbbell!

 

[Ares Black]

I guess the fact that they’re not an American news outlet gives them a little more freedom to make big, early predictions. Less cost to the Economist if they get it wrong, since their primary audience isn’t looking to them for insights into American elections.

We know these types of analyses, chance to win, are pretty meaningless. They’re not that far off from Nate Silver’s forecast though, and he really can’t afford to be wrong again.

They are not making a "big, early prediction". They have been running an election tracker all year. Trump's chances are at an all-time low.

Seriously, I recommend looking into their methodology. It's not some "expert" making a guess.

 

[drstrangelov]

They are not making a "big, early prediction". They have been running an election tracker all year. Trump's chances are at an all-time low.

Saying he’s got a 4% chance to win is a big prediction since it’s a completely unhedged claim of near certain outcome more than a week out. The early in that context means they’ve gone past the point of no return with more campaign left to go. I’m not saying it’s not consistent with their ongoing analysis, only that it’s a bigger swing than anybody else is taking at this point.

You’re not seeing that level of certainty from American outlets, and the ones that went that far in 2016, even as late as Election Day, pretty much stopped analyzing polls after.

 

[Ares Black]

Saying he’s got a 4% chance to win is a big prediction since it’s a completely unhedged claim of near certain outcome more than a week out. The early in that context means they’ve gone past the point of no return with more campaign left to go. I’m not saying it’s not consistent with their ongoing analysis, only that it’s a bigger swing than anybody else is taking at this point.

You’re not seeing that level of certainty from American outlets, and the ones that went that far in 2016, even as late as Election Day, pretty much stopped analyzing polls after.

Read the methodology.

 

[drstrangelov]

First good Nevada poll in a while is coming today, if Trump pulls ahead there he’s can make Biden’s path to victory a little trickier, though taking Pa, Wi, Mi should still seal it for him.

 

[luckyshot]

I guess the fact that they’re not an American news outlet gives them a little more freedom to make big, early predictions. .

Saying he’s got a 4% chance to win is a big prediction since it’s a completely unhedged claim of near certain outcome more than a week out. The early in that context means they’ve gone past the point of no return with more campaign left to go. I’m not saying it’s not consistent with their ongoing analysis, only that it’s a bigger swing than anybody else is taking at this point.

You’re not seeing that level of certainty from American outlets, and the ones that went that far in 2016, even as late as Election Day, pretty much stopped analyzing polls after.

The Economist's "prediction" is not an editorial choice; they are running a computerized election model whose algorithms were written before the election cycle even started, just like fivethirtyeight.

 

[drstrangelov]

Read the methodology.

I read it in full before posting. They’re not using substantially different methodology than everybody else, they’re just going further out on the limb with that conclusion than any American news outlet worth a damn ever would with 8 days to go. I wouldn’t be surprised if many moved in that direction between now and Election Day, but I also assume the models Americans use wont go past 90% as a way to save face if they’re wrong.

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

Lieberman... baby just drop out already

 

[drstrangelov]

The Economist's "prediction" is not an editorial choice; they are running a computerized elecection model whose algorithms were written before the election cycle even started, just like fivethirtyeight.

Sure, but I don’t believe for a moment that any American publication looking at the same data would publish a similar statement this far out. There’s built in conservatism in our press, certainly after 2016. The Brits don’t need to be as cautious.

 

[Oceanmachine]

Lieberman... baby just drop out already

I cant see a Democrat win in Georgia. Up against too much. Expect meddling there

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

@Limbo Pete lol

 

[PolishHeadlock2]

 

[andnowweknow]

Loving the participation numbers.

 

[Starman]

Trafalgar and a few other big data analytics firms that were among the few to accurately predict Trump 2016, Brexit, and the mid-terms are all predicting another Trump victory in 2020. Some of the problems that the polling companies got wrong in 2016 are being repeated now, many likely intentionally.

1.) They are over-sampling: democrat voters, college educated, and suburban Republican women.

2.) They are over-sampling registered voters vs. likely voters.

3.) They are under-sampling rural voters and those with just a high school diploma.

4.) They aren't weighing social desirability enough, if at all. In other words, they aren't accounting (enough) for the "shy Trump voter."

The polling companies and big data groups that called 2016 and Brexit (this is a very small number) accurately did so because they accounted for these factors, many if not all of which are once again being ignored or underreported by the MSM and the pollsters they've hired.

Trump is going to win again, and all I want is for all the "oof, Biden up by 14 points" retards to come take their lumps when it is over. Please don't disappear for a month, and then come in and tell us how the polls were right all along when they gave Biden a 98% chance at victory, and Trump supporters are just too dumb to understand what a 98% chance of victory actually meant.

Trump is going to win. Again. The polls are wrong. Again. Come back and admit you were wrong when it is over and don't blame it on Russia this time.

 

[TheBlondBomber]

Uh oh. Now you’re all in BIG trouble!

 

[Starman]

Uh oh. Now you’re all in BIG trouble!

A Pennsylvania win will be a miracle. The fix is in with them accepting ballots with signatures that don't match, no signatures, and for days after the election with no postmarks.

Trump will win election night but the media will not call it. They will caution people to hold off until "all the votes are counted." Then we're going to spend days watching mail bag after mail bag show up, all for Democrats, as they try to steal the election and overturn the results. I just hope the GOP and the American people have the stomach for the dogfight that is going to be on our hands.

 

[TheBlondBomber]

A Pennsylvania win will be a miracle. The fix is in with them accepting ballots with signatures that don't match, no signatures, and for days after the election with no postmarks.

Trump will win election night but the media will not call it. They will caution people to hold off until "all the votes are counted." Then we're going to spend days watching mail bag after mail bag show up, all for Democrats, as they try to steal the election and overturn the results. I just hope the GOP and the American people have the stomach for the dogfight that is going to be on our hands.

i don’t see a path to 270 for Trump without Pennsylvania. How do you see it?

 

[Bloody Pulp]

A Pennsylvania win will be a miracle. The fix is in with them accepting ballots with signatures that don't match, no signatures, and for days after the election with no postmarks.

Trump will win election night but the media will not call it. They will caution people to hold off until "all the votes are counted." Then we're going to spend days watching mail bag after mail bag show up, all for Democrats, as they try to steal the election and overturn the results. I just hope the GOP and the American people have the stomach for the dogfight that is going to be on our hands.

PA case headed back to the now fully staffed SC. Anticipate them quashing the 3-day after Election Day counting fuckery based on their own precedent from the WI ruling yesterday.

 

[Starman]

PA case headed back to the now fully staffed SC. Anticipate them quashing the 3-day after Election Day counting fuckery based on their own precedent from the WI ruling yesterday.

That's what I'm hoping for.