UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Dos Anjos

[Gugabe]

This fight reminds me a lot of Thugnasty vs Fili, where a lot of people here were on Fili at dog odds. Questions about whether Mitchell could actually take Fili down, but not about Mitchell's grappling when it got to the mat. Fili clearly the better striker, etc.

Similar questions heading into this fight. Allen is the better grappler IF he can get Strickland down. But can he?

I'll say the same thing now as I did with that fight when I advocated a play on Mitchell: You don't have to be an amazing takedown artist to have success as a grappler if you have good cardio, fight IQ, and a DOGGED determination to get the fight to the mat. You can't be utter shit with TD's, but you don't have to be GSP blasting a double or Khabib doing what he does against the cage.

Allen KNOWS what his strength is. He has good cardio. And he's okay (but not great) at taking opponents down. Strickland isn't a garbage grappler either, (nor was Fili vs Mitchell) but he's a clear level below Allen imo. At evens, I'm gonna take the guy who will go nonstop at forcing the fight to the area he knows he has the edge.

I will say, I'm less confident in Allen than I was in Mitchell for what that's worth. I do still think Allen gets it done though.

Allen good cardio? Daukaus pulled away hard down the stretch, and I'm kinda concerned about the whole 'Allen was supposed to not fight for the rest of the year due to serious facial damage' thing. If a guy who's almost entirely reliant on blind zombie-aggression has lost some durability, it's not good for him.

 

[mkess101]

Allen good cardio? Daukaus pulled away hard down the stretch, and I'm kinda concerned about the whole 'Allen was supposed to not fight for the rest of the year due to serious facial damage' thing. If a guy who's almost entirely reliant on blind zombie-aggression has lost some durability, it's not good for him.

Wait, am I remembering Allen/Daukus wrong? I remenber Allen winning Rd 1, losing Rd 2, then coming back strong and clearly outgrappling Daukus (a very good grappler himself) Rd 3. Maybe I need to watch again but I swear that's how it went?

Edit: I just did a quick rewatch of rds 2 and 3. I was wrong. Allen won the first 2 and lost Rd 3.

That said, it was a crazy high paced fight. And while Allen did drop the third, he had plenty of energy left to defend and stay in the fight. And again, that's against what's very likely a much better grappler than Strickland.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Allen good cardio? Daukaus pulled away hard down the stretch, and I'm kinda concerned about the whole 'Allen was supposed to not fight for the rest of the year due to serious facial damage' thing. If a guy who's almost entirely reliant on blind zombie-aggression has lost some durability, it's not good for him.

Wasn't it a high pace grappling match and Daukus being another bjj black belt. daukus was also undefeated prior to that fight.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Anyone on Miranda Granger? Just watched her last 2 fights and Yoder's last 2. Although its wmma and I'm an idiot for even looking into it, Granger is -160 for me, seems like she should be -240.

 

[SolarSeiko]

For the first time ever I like Smolka in a fight. Jose is a bum, Smolka is better everywhere

He might.. "Smolka" this bum too
Get it?!

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Allen good cardio? Daukaus pulled away hard down the stretch, and I'm kinda concerned about the whole 'Allen was supposed to not fight for the rest of the year due to serious facial damage' thing. If a guy who's almost entirely reliant on blind zombie-aggression has lost some durability, it's not good for him.

That match was a high level grappling match because Kyle Daukaus is LEGIT. Almost on Allen’s level if not he’ll be there in 6 months. That was a great test of Allen’s conditioning IMO and he showed he can hang.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

After rewatching tape Im changing my pick from Smolka to Jose.
He will have cardio advantage, nice leg kicks and size advantage.
And this is a value pick because Jose has a real chance to win this. Not like Illl800 Markos ,,value bet" lol

@SolarSeiko I wrote that on page earlier, changed my mind about that fight

 

[rev0lver]

Like @mkess101 said, his bottom game/guard is better than RDA's. His top game/takedowns aren't. And Oliveira came incredibly close to submitting him if I recall correctly.

But RDA is a legit high level grappler, but because of his recent walk down the murderer's row of the WW division, people have seem to forgotten about it.

Felder has been taken down by damn near everyone of his opponents. Against Hooker, a fight in which was primarily a striking affair, Felder was gassed at the end of 5 rounds.

I mean it was a war so I understand, but that was the first time we've seen him go 5 rounds -- if RDA employs a grappling strategy early, it's not unreasonable to think that Felder is incredibly tired going into the championship rounds, despite him "training for a triathlon".

RDA wasn't able to submit Pettis/Diaz over the course of 5 rounds, but both of them have a much higher grappling pedigree then Felder does, and they both had full camps.

Felder could come out and KO him early, but I just don't see it. Felder's career is riddled with split decisions, despite his power. Unless the weight cut takes a significant toll on RDA, he should dominate this fight, and probably submit/TKO Felder in rounds 4/5.

edit: also Felder is talking about retirement even after a win, so that's another huge red flag.

I think everything you're saying is possible but you could also be overrating current RDA/underrating Felder's actual ability here. Felder's been in wars with harder strikers than RDA, has (arguably) fought better grapplers than RDA, and has only been finished by a cut. RDA is a better all-around fighter than most of his opponents but it's hard for me to say he'll just finish a guy who hasn't been finished in 14 UFC fights.

RDA generally has great cardio, but he's crossing over to his late 30's and is cutting to LW for the first time in 4 years. Doesn't always bode well. I wouldn't be ultra confident here if it's a high paced fight.

Just so tough to get a read here imo and I can't be confident either way. Felder is tough and scrappy and can go toe to toe with anyone, but hasn't fought a single divisional top 5. RDA has been absolutely outclassed in 4 of his last 5, but mostly against top tier fighters. RDA could look like he did against Pettis or be completely washed. Felder can bust him up on the feet/gnp or just look like an aging mid-level dude on a short notice fight.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I was thinking about playing gravely but the line is about right where it. De Freitas had value at +170 for sure. He’s the better rangier striker and has enough grappling to not get stuck vs gravely. He also has the cardio to not get burned out by gravelys pressure game.


His fight iq and top control leave much to be desired. He’s too aggressive with his subs and loses position and he will probably try to take gravely down

 

[Broe.]

de freitas fights for your money, he is a dog you want to put your money on!

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I was thinking about playing gravely but the line is about right where it. De Freitas has value at +170 for sure. He’s the better rangier striker and has enough grappling to not get stuck vs gravely. He also has the cardio to not get burned out by gravelys pressure game.


His fight iq and top control leave much to be desired. He’s too aggressive with his subs and loses position and he will probably try to take gravely down

Aye aye captain.

 

[rev0lver]

Anyone thinking of playing Roque Martinez here? Mayes is just not very good and has poor cardio. Roque is by no means a world-beater, but he's tough as nails and got thrown to a wolf in his debut against a high-level wrestler. He's a pressure fighter who likes clinching, has a lot more experience, doesn't get knocked out, and seems fine going 3 rounds. Almost like a poor man's Tanner Boser. Besides not being a grappler, he seems like a pretty bad matchup for Mayes. Unless I'm missing something +185 looks fantastic

 

[TrueAscension]

Marleys picks for this poo poo doo doo caca card:


Rafael dos Anjos (-170) vs. Paul Felder (+150): Felder via TKO

Felder took this fight on short notice and he has to cut a lot of weight for a fight that is scheduled for five rounds. Dos Anjos has fallen off lately, with losses in four of his last five. Felder has been looking great and, even in his last loss, he looks like the best version of himself we have seen. Felder is the older fighter, which surprised me, but it looks like he has more left in the tank. This should be a fight that mainly stays standing and it is close on the feet. Dos Anjos has the edge on the mat, but I might give Felder the slight edge on the feet. There is no way I would pay close to -200 on either one of these guys. Felder doesn't strike me as a guy who will have cardio issues on a short-notice fight, so I think he can win a decision, but I will take him to land a hard shot and put RDA away.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-230) vs. Khaos Williams (+195): Alhassan by TKO

This should be a violent striking fight. Both guys throw heat and will be looking for the knockout early and often. I think Alhassan is the better and more powerful striker, so he is going to be the pick. I was hoping him coming off a loss and Williams coming off a win would have helped this price, but he is still a fan favorite and we have to pay up for him if we want an investment.

Julian Marquez (-280) vs. Saparbek Safarov (+240): Marquez by TKO

Safarov is a wild man and he could land a knockout. That might be his only path to victory because I think Marquez is the better striker and grappler, so it's hard to see Safarov winning any other way. The first round should be the closest and Safarov's best chance, but after that Marquez should take over and probably get a finish of his own.

Eryk Anders (-140) vs. Antonio Arroyo (+120): Arroyo by decision

This is a close fight. Anders gets the power and wrestling edge, but the technique and grappling edges go to Arroyo. This fight should stay standing for the most part. Either guy could get a knockout but, if this plays out over 15 minutes, I would rather take the underdog.

Sean Strickland (-115) vs. Brendan Allen (-105): Allen by submission

Strickland just fought two weeks ago, and Allen was supposed to fight last weekend but the fight fell through. Now, they are making this fight at a catchweight of 195 pounds on less than a week's notice and this is one of the better fights on the card. Strickland gets the striking edge, but Allen should have the size edge, which should also provide him the wrestling edge. Both are solid grapplers, but I would slightly favor Allen just because I think he is more likely to have top control.

Kay Hansen (-220) vs. Cory McKenna (+190): McKenna by decision

Both are decent grapplers, but Hansen might get the slight edge on the mat. McKenna looks like the better striker and she might be the better wrestler as well. This line should be a lot closer to even, and I think the hype behind Hansen is playing a factor in the odds. The biggest worry is McKenna getting caught in a submission. If that doesn't happen, I don't see how Hansen wins this fight anywhere close to 70 percent of the time, as the odds suggest.

Miranda Granger (-130) vs. Ashley Yoder (+110): Yoder by decision

Granger gets the edge on the feet and the grappling advantage goes to Yoder. I don't see a knockout from Granger coming, so she would need to win a striking battle that goes the distance. Yoder should be looking to get this fight to the mat and, if she can, then she can use her grappling to lock up a submission or just win rounds.

Alex Morono (-185) vs. Rhys McKee (+165): McKee via TKO

McKee got destroyed in his UFC debut by Khamzat Chimaev. But if we throw that fight out, I don't know how Morono is this big of a favorite. Morono is the better grappler but he can't wrestle like Chimaev, so this fight mainly plays out on the feet and McKee is capable there. I think McKee is the better striker and he is the taller and longer fighter as well. Give me the underdog in this spot to get a TKO or a striking-based decision win.

Louis Smolka (-135) vs. Jose Quinonez (+115): Smolka by decision

I give Smolka the advantage in striking and grappling and he is the higher-paced fighter who should be pushing the action. Quinonez is the better wrestler and Smolka will accept takedowns, but I don't see Quinonez having a lot of success on the mat even if he can land them. I think Smolka has more ways to win.

Kanako Murata (-175) vs Randa Markos (+155): Murata by submission

I don't know if I will ever pick Markos again after her last fight, where she jumped in the guard of probably the best grappler in women's MMA, Mackenzie Dern, and got submitted easily. I can't trust her with my money and she only has decent striking and wrestling. Murata looks like she is a better striker and a better wrestler. I also like her grappling a lot more as well, and could see her locking up a submission.

Tony Gravely (-165) vs Geraldo de Freitas (+145): Gravely by decision

Both guys love to wrestle. Gravely averages 4.77 takedowns per 15 minutes and de Freitas averages 4. Gravely should have the edge everywhere and, if the wrestling cancels out, he can win a striking decision or get a knockout. I think Gravely is the better wrestler, so he is more likely to land takedowns. It's hard to find any real advantages aside from height and reach for de Freitas.

Don'tale Mayes (-215) vs Roque Martinez (+185): Martinez by TKO

Mayes is the better striker and the quicker fighter who has an 8-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage. If this fight stays standing, he should be favored. However, I wouldn't lay over -200 on Mayes against anybody in the UFC. Martinez likes to strike so that could be a worry, but he should look to get inside and look for takedowns. If he can get takedowns, he might be able to keep Mayes on the mat the rest of the fight and possibly get a ground-and-pound finish.

 

[rev0lver]

Felder is the older fighter, which surprised me, but it looks like he has more left in the tank.

Dunno where you heard this from but RDA is about 6 months older than him

 

[TrueAscension]

Dunno where you heard this from but RDA is about 6 months older than him

probably the same place you neglected to read that these are Kyle Marley’s picks.

 

[mkess101]

I think everything you're saying is possible but you could also be overrating current RDA/underrating Felder's actual ability here. Felder's been in wars with harder strikers than RDA, has (arguably) fought better grapplers than RDA, and has only been finished by a cut. RDA is a better all-around fighter than most of his opponents but it's hard for me to say he'll just finish a guy who hasn't been finished in 14 UFC fights.

RDA generally has great cardio, but he's crossing over to his late 30's and is cutting to LW for the first time in 4 years. Doesn't always bode well. I wouldn't be ultra confident here if it's a high paced fight.

Just so tough to get a read here imo and I can't be confident either way. Felder is tough and scrappy and can go toe to toe with anyone, but hasn't fought a single divisional top 5. RDA has been absolutely outclassed in 4 of his last 5, but mostly against top tier fighters. RDA could look like he did against Pettis or be completely washed. Felder can bust him up on the feet/gnp or just look like an aging mid-level dude on a short notice fight.

Great point about RDA cutting back down. He allegedly moved up because the cut was so tough. Now he's 4 years older...

 

[Martialbeef]

Have people been hammering Morono McKee fight does not go the distance prop? It literally went from +135 to -135 overnight!

 

[Spath]

Anyone on Miranda Granger? Just watched her last 2 fights and Yoder's last 2. Although its wmma and I'm an idiot for even looking into it, Granger is -160 for me, seems like she should be -240.

@xhaydenx makes most of his profits (?) with WMMA betting, believe it or not, so I think he’d have an idea about this fight too.

I’m not touching that one, but...

 

[longway]

Speaking of WMMA, just watched some of Cory Mckenna's fights and a couple of Hansen's, and I cant see why the line is so wide. I think this should be closer to a pick'em. I also see Yoder v Granger heading to a close decision, if not split.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Granger sucks, Yoder can win this using her wrestling