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UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

Shotcy said:
He does! What calculated that %? You seem to know a lot of things I don't. Please teach me.
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I see you’re joking with the guy, but some really can’t read between the lines. Hopefully no new sherdoggers/beginner bet makers get the wrong idea here.

Gane’s implied win probability is about 80% (based on the 1,25 / -400 odds). I think he has a magician’s hat and got those percentages from there.

Gane is very green in his MMA career (at 6 fights deep) compared to JDS, but he’s rightfully the clear favorite here. He seems to be pretty well rounded, doesn’t overcommit and make much mistakes. He has power, but doesn’t sit down on his punches as much as he could. That makes him a bit less of a threat offensively, but helps him defensively as he doesn’t plant his feet so he can throw faster and get out of the way, also return his hands back to guard his chin quickly.

JDS on the other hand seems to be on his way out as he’s not as quick or explosive as he was before. He makes a lot of mistakes that seem to cost him big time. He probably made some before, too, but got away with them as he was faster and had a granite chin.

I’m talking from what I remember seeing, but against Ngannou JDS went for a telegraphed overhand that was thrown from his grandma’s kitchen with no set up. He overcommitted to it which made him over extend, falling face forward, totally out of position. He made himself extremely vulnerable and to no one’s surprise Ngannou took him out.

Against Blaydes he had his hands down and started to unload a monster of a rear uppercut (similar to what he dropped Werdum with a long time ago), but never got it off as he ate a cross to the chin from Blaydes. The hands down approach was probably because he was waiting to shrug off takedown attempts, but that was rough..

Against Rozenstruik I remember him backing up as Roz pressured, something JDS does a lot and has been doing for a long time. He bit on a feint and tried to counter with a power punch but got flattened himself against the fence.

That’s his last 3, all against very, very dangerous guys... not pretty performances.

All in all, I think there could be some value on JDS based on all the experience, jump in the level of competition for Gane... But the problem is that we don’t know what kind of JDS will show up. He kicked Black Beasts ass a couple of years ago and surprised many. If I was a betting man (and I am) I’d probably look for over 1,5 rounds here.
 
Spath said:
I see you’re joking with the guy, but some really can’t read between the lines. Hopefully no new sherdoggers/beginner bet makers get the wrong idea here.



Gane’s implied win probability is about 80% (based on the 1,25 / -400 odds). I think he has a magician’s hat and got those percentages from there.

Gane is very green in his MMA career (at 6 fights deep) compared to JDS, but he’s rightfully the clear favorite here. He seems to be pretty well rounded, doesn’t overcommit and make much mistakes. He has power, but doesn’t sit down on his punches as much as he could. That makes him a bit less of a threat offensively, but helps him defensively as he doesn’t plant his feet so he can throw faster and get out of the way, also return his hands back to guard his chin quickly.

JDS on the other hand seems to be on his way out as he’s not as quick or explosive as he was before. He makes a lot of mistakes that seem to cost him big time. He probably made some before, too, but got away with them as he was faster and had a granite chin.

I’m talking from what I remember seeing, but against Ngannou JDS went for a telegraphed overhand that was thrown from his grandma’s kitchen with no set up. He overcommitted to it which made over extend, falling face forward, totally out of position. He made himself extremely vulnerable and to no one’s surprise Ngannou took him out.

Against Blaydes he had his hands down and started to unload a monster of a rear uppercut (similar to what he dropped Werdum with a long time ago), but never got it off as he ate a cross to the chin from Blaydes. The hands down approach was probably because he was waiting to shrug off takedown attempts, but that was rough..

Against Rozenstruik I remember him backing up as Roz pressured, something JDS does a lot and has been doing for a long time. He bit on a feint and tried to counter with a power punch but got flattened himself against the fence.

That’s his last 3, all against very, very dangerous guys... not pretty performances.

All in all, I think there could be some value on JDS based on all the experience, jump in the level of competition for Gane... But the problem is that we don’t know what kind of JDS will show up. He kicked Black Beasts ass a couple of years ago and surprised many. If I was a betting man (and I am) I’d probably look for over 1,5 rounds here.
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Thank you! I do see some value on JDS experience.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Go f*ck yourself with your sarcasm and bet cigano
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Your seem awfully angry. How come you dont post any of your bet slips? Nvm answered my own question.

Im not campaigning JDS is likely to win, but the odds dont match up. I was legit looking for some useful information and you were useless. Going threw your posts, you seem like an ass hole. 1% bro, 1%!
 
Shotcy said:
Your seem awfully angry. How come you dont post any of your bet slips? Nvm answered my own question.

Im not campaigning JDS is likely to win, but the odds dont match up. I was legit looking for some useful information and you were useless. Going threw your posts, you seem like an ass hole. 1% bro, 1%!
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There are some people you should just ignore, list
 
Shotcy said:
Your seem awfully angry. How come you dont post any of your bet slips? Nvm answered my own question.

Im not campaigning JDS is likely to win, but the odds dont match up. I was legit looking for some useful information and you were useless. Going threw your posts, you seem like an ass hole. 1% bro, 1%!
Click to expand...
<YeahOKJen>
 
Making my first foray into MMA betting. In the future I intend to research down the card a bit more but for this event just going on feel and having fun with it.

As a fan I want Gane to win as he has potential, but as with the poster above I still see value in the experience of JDS. Gane is super green with his best win being a decision over Tanner Boser (a guy I don't really rate) while I think JDS has the ability to play a point fighting battle and come out on top. Or get KTFO, but I'm doing this for fun and am not betting an amount that really means anything to me.

Single bets on JDS by points and Fig by KO/TKO but really looking for the 3 leg multi with those
bets and Dern.

Screenshot_20201207-230728.jpg

Screenshot_20201207-230708.jpg
 
It's funny how money changes things, because I absolutely agree with that assessment but still feel tempted enough to have a go.

The way I see it is if Gane wins the way he should, it's an exciting fight. If JDS wins it will probably be a boring defensive heavy points fight, in which case I'll be compensated for not getting the expected Gane excitement. Win/win.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Gane is going to pick jds apart. Much faster, more skilled all around striker. 80% seems pretty accurate
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66-68% for me. Like my percentage I assume yours is based on your own knowledge of MMA and just something you conjure up yourself? Nothing but respect and I always thought thats the game we're playing here.

Edit: They both profit about $72... They both seem risky but the other one risk less. Maybe im an idiot.

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Screenshot_2020-12-07-10-36-39.png
 
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Has Hooper developed his game? The guy is 21 but last time had maybe the worst striking in all of ufc and didn't come even close to grounding Caceres. Last time he fought it was made clear here that anyone with some fight iq beats him but once again he is a big favorite. Barrett does have sub losses but at least showed some grit going full 15 with Zalal.
 
Dern / Jandiroba such an interesting fight. As average as her standup is, Dern should destroy Verna. Verna has the most slow motion overhands and legit nothing else. Dern also has a massive athleticism edge. On the other hand the takedown is there all fight for Verna if she wants it. Dern overextends and Verna has a great lvl change. I don't think she can win a fight without using her wrestling and top control. She is like an oldschool Maia. What it boils down to in my opinion, is Vernas top game V Derns guard game.

Inue kept Verna in her guard for long periods of time, but she also never threatened with anything. She was very young and green. Ribas was able to stall Dern on top end of round 1 and for about 30 seconds in second. I tend to feel an experienced Jits practitioner like Jandiroba knows how to stay out of harms way in someones guard, even though this is WMMA. We havent seen anyone good in Dern guard ( minus Ribas for a bit ), and nobody of Derns quality attack Jandiroba from the bottom. Really tough for me to call. Jandiroba DEC might have value as she will probably ride it out on top if she does win. Dern dosent have the IQ or style to sprawl and brawl.

Another thing to consider is if Dern ends up on top. Could have a solid advantage there and catch Verna by surprise. Dont think her TDD is anything amazing
 
Got Figueiredo/Tony/Holland/Gane parlay booked at the moment

will add the same parlay all ITD too when the odds come on my bookie but will leave out Holland from that one.

only pick that has got me a little nervous is Holland v Jacare. But not nervous enough to not pull the trigger!
 
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