UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Vettori

[Sono07]

The short notice is definitely going to work against holland. I just wonder if Marvin is a good a wrestler as Bronson, if not how would a kickboxing match go between them.

I'd say Vettori is a much better wrestler than Darren Stewart and Stewart didn't have much trouble holding Holland down, same for Brendan Allen. I still like Vettori on the feet honestly. He is a southpaw and I'm not sure if Holland has much experience against a high level southpaw striker. If you want an idea how Vettori should do here rewatch his fight with Adesanya again.

I know it gets brought up alot but it was a decent fight. That and Holland stylistically really is just a dollar store discount version of Izzy. Both long rangey strikers who utilize their length and movement to set up striking angles against lower level strikers who don't manage distance as effectively. It works for Holland because he can set traps and get lower level strikers to follow him around and bait them into his big ranged shots. Unlike like Izzy though I don't think he can do it against higher level strikers that are capable of crowding him and cutting off the cage and his footwork. Holland does well when he can force opponents to fight at his range but I think he lacks the tools to do so against well rounded strikers with good footwork.

 

[TrueAscension]

How is this even a debate? Vettori is gonna put him up against the cage, take him down, and submit him.

This isn’t some sort of close fight. Vettori is a title challenge fighter, Holland got beat to a pulp by Derek fucking Brunson.

 

[Sono07]

How is this even a debate? Vettori is gonna put him up against the cage, take him down, and submit him.

This isn’t some sort of close fight. Vettori is a title challenge fighter, Holland got beat to a pulp by Derek fucking Brunson.

It almost feels like one of those if it looks too good to be true it probably is kinda things, like it just seems too easy. Aside from an early KO or Vettori's gastank having a massive implosion I don't see a path for Holland. Hell kinda like the Julia Budd fight this weekend on bellator. Looks like the line is on its way up but I would probably cap Budd at -450 to -500 against the random, sloppy brazilian chick. Vettori and Budd are my parlay of the weekend so far.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Brunson even fully gassed was still able to take Holland down. Vettori believes if he wins this fight he has his TS. Anything outside of a flash ko or Vettori being an idiot having zero respect for Holland and Vettori should dominate. He also caught a second wind vs Herm.

Id say Vettori has a 85% chance of winning. I got 3u at 1.36 in a combo with Edwards vs Diaz as diaz ive always been super low on and his hype is unwarranted and Edwards underrated as we saw vs Belal.

Parlay 3u at 1.75 (vettori 1.36, edwards 1.28).

Vettori also is able to take decent punishment and does protect himself by keeping his hands up, really hard to see Holland winning this outside of a beautiful flash ko.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Is Impa good? He's coming off a bad KO loss and dropping down to 170. I watched Palatnikovs UFC debut last night and he looks solid. +250 seems like a good bet what am I missing was Impa some hyped prospect before he got KO'd by Buckley or something?

 

[Sono07]

Is Impa good? He's coming off a bad KO loss and dropping down to 170. I watched Palatnikovs UFC debut last night and he looks solid. +250 seems like a good bet what am I missing was Impa some hyped prospect before he got KO'd by Buckley or something?

I'm not to familiar with Palatnikov but I was surprised to see Impa as such a big favorite. I'm pretty sure Impa was losing to Buckley as a favorite even before the KO kick. Buckley isn't really anything special either. I want to say Impa has decent boxing but I don't think he has been tested and I definitely wouldn't play him as that big a favorite, Sasha might be worth a stab. Just going off memory I want to say Sasha won his last fight mainly due to Cosce having absolutely horrible cardio and gassing like crazy though.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd say Vettori is a much better wrestler than Darren Stewart and Stewart didn't have much trouble holding Holland down, same for Brendan Allen. I still like Vettori on the feet honestly. He is a southpaw and I'm not sure if Holland has much experience against a high level southpaw striker. If you want an idea how Vettori should do here rewatch his fight with Adesanya again.

I know it gets brought up alot but it was a decent fight. That and Holland stylistically really is just a dollar store discount version of Izzy. Both long rangey strikers who utilize their length and movement to set up striking angles against lower level strikers who don't manage distance as effectively. It works for Holland because he can set traps and get lower level strikers to follow him around and bait them into his big ranged shots. Unlike like Izzy though I don't think he can do it against higher level strikers that are capable of crowding him and cutting off the cage and his footwork. Holland does well when he can force opponents to fight at his range but I think he lacks the tools to do so against well rounded strikers with good footwork.

good point im still researching the sodiq fight, but this a pretty sound cap.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Is Impa good? He's coming off a bad KO loss and dropping down to 170. I watched Palatnikovs UFC debut last night and he looks solid. +250 seems like a good bet what am I missing was Impa some hyped prospect before he got KO'd by Buckley or something?

The value is on sasha look at his ufc athlete page, he has championships in ama boxing and a kickboxing belt in new york.

He also looks really sharp in the pads.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

I'm not to familiar with Palatnikov but I was surprised to see Impa as such a big favorite. I'm pretty sure Impa was losing to Buckley as a favorite even before the KO kick. Buckley isn't really anything special either. I want to say Impa has decent boxing but I don't think he has been tested and I definitely wouldn't play him as that big a favorite, Sasha might be worth a stab. Just going off memory I want to say Sasha won his last fight mainly due to Cosce having absolutely horrible cardio and gassing like crazy though.

Cosce won the first half of the first round and put it on Patatnikov but Palatnikov stayed calm and never really looked close to being finished, great chin. Palatnikov won the rest of the fight after that although he grabbed the fence like 5 times and kept claiming to get hit in the nuts to take breaks which on the replay looked kinda questionable. Palatnikov showed good hands though and really good footwork and movement. Offtopic but he seems to have a weird backround a dude with a Russian name fighting out of Hong Kong and made his UFC debut with a 5-2 record? haha kinda weird.

 

[Jordan3399]

a kickboxing belt in new york.

Can't get more legit than that

 

[Deleted member 316645]

How is this even a debate? Vettori is gonna put him up against the cage, take him down, and submit him.

This isn’t some sort of close fight. Vettori is a title challenge fighter, Holland got beat to a pulp by Derek fucking Brunson.

This isn't a slight at you, as I respect the shit out of your takes.

But you were huge on Jack over Jared, you basically said something a long the lines of, "no way Hermansson loses this fight, right?"

Is it possible we're all actually overating Hermansson, and underrating Brunson?

I'm in the same boat as you, my initial thoughts, and current thoughts are Holland is shit, and Vettori wins handedly.

But as I think about it more, if this fight happens before the Brunson/Hermansson fights for each, Holland would be -150.

I just have a really bad feeling this is a trap fight. That being said, I'd never play Holland.

 

[2020Tracked]

Does anyone have a solid dog they like on this card? I haven't found one

 

[Everygoodnametook]

I love sasha palatnikov +245 against impa, irrc he was a +450 dog against louis cosce and took it fuckin to him, like win or lose you know he’s gonna fight for your money

 

[Everygoodnametook]

Does anyone have a solid dog they like on this card? I haven't found one

sasha palatnikov +245 is the only dog i see with great value, I wouldn’t be surprised to see alvey win a ugly decision against marquez but +156 is flaccid

 

[Stat_Collector]

Does anyone have a solid dog they like on this card? I haven't found one

Jordan Griffen ,he has far more exp and better experience against gamer opponents. had a close fight with Dan Ige, his opponent luis got beat a while ago by a 3-3 opponent.

Saldana has 7 sub wins so he knows some stuff, but Jordan has subbed guys like Derrick Minner so he definitely can wrestle, so saldana's ground game is definitely lower than jordan's.

this is a fight from 5 years ago.

RFA 39 video highlights - video Dailymotion



He got dominated on the ground by ground control to Mike Santiago MMA Stats, Pictures, News, Videos, Biography - Sherdog.com

 

[Stat_Collector]

A few hot takes mainly but I figured I would share. About to spend half my day taking care of my lawn and trying to play catch up for Saturday. So far I like
●Vettori- Much better wrestling and better rounded over all

●Sodiq- More powerful striker here. If Nick Lentz can give Allen trouble I think Sodiq can

●Gamrot/Solecki- Similar reasons for both, strong grapplers who should be able to outpace their opponents

A feW NSC lines and overs I'll be keeping an eye out for too. I highly doubt Alvey can stop Marquez, and Julian seems like a slow starter.

That sodiq fight has me a little worried. Sodiq is a beast but Allen has made it this far with a nice record as well, I can see some bull crap decision split going to Allen. Both guys have been wobbled before in previous fights, not anything too significant but enough for concern .

 

[matthew55]

Not trying come off argumentative but honestly asking:

1. How do you see Dern winning? takedowns? she has 1 takedown out of 14 attempts.

Striking? No where near Nina who has been training since 6 years old in tkd , and lit up Claudia who has fought for the title and Angela Hill who is a decent kick boxer.

Submission? Tatiana nor Claudia could do it. And Nina has a 77% td defense and stuffed 9 takedowns from Tatiana who was a world champion wrestler, and has Amanda as her sparring partner.

I think Dern has a 33% chance of winning if she somehow gets Nina from her guard, she got her last two subs off her back. But lets be honest this is very slim chance a striker will follow her there. Nina has good fight Iq too, when she fights grapplers she doesn't try to prove she is a better grappler, she will fight the chuck liddell style of sprawl and brawl. I cant see this going for Dern.

To be fair Tatiana was injured during that training camp and fight which has kept her out so long.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

I think Sodiq/Allen ends up a kickboxing match that Sodiq wins clearly, personally. I need to do a refresh on Allen though

 

[Stat_Collector]

To be fair Tatiana was injured during that training camp and fight which has kept her out so long.

thanks for that detail , still think her with injuries still beats Dern's takedowns at full health. Dern just seems like the type of girl who snacks on ice cream from time to time. Her conditioning always seemed bad to me.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Does anyone have a solid dog they like on this card? I haven't found one

I have to say i haven't seen a fight card with so many fighters being valued at high in odd value.
With some questionable sketchy reasoning behind that.

As for the dogs i think i do like Sasha palatnikov and Dern are most interesting ones i am looking at here. Some might disagree with me on Dern.