UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Vettori

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Honestly I'd like Mike Perry alot more here if his family crest wasn't a crimson red flag. Careful betting this one in my opinion. Betting against Mike Perry you are either going against a washed up, lazy boxer or the savage that nearly beat Luque in front of his home crowd in Brazil.

Dude is either going to fuck off his whole training camp or get a bone broken mid fight and keep fighting. I like Drod for his consistency but if Perry actually shows up drinking more than alcohol and lead water this is a very winnable fight for him. I'm waiting until the weigh ins but if Dalby can beat Drod an in shape Perry can.

On the plus side, DRod hasn't been knocked out, and the one fight I've seen him rocked in it was perhaps his worst performance in the UFC. Yet he ended up storming right back and winning. I think so long as he doesn't run face first into a huge Perry bomb with no defensive guard then he's going to win this pretty clearly.

DRod is consistent with his jab, and keeps his hands up. I don't see what training Perry could have gotten in the past few months that isn't going to see his face get mulched from eating jabs. I guess the real question for me is about DRod's mentality. Is he going to get drawn into a brawl? It's possible, but this is a big chance for him. Shine against Perry and he might be able to get himself a fringe contender next time out.

For what it's worth, I'd have taken Dalby over Perry easily. I think Perry would really struggle with Dalby's movement and defence.

Gonna watch some Sodiq/Allen fights tonight, will report back.


EDIT:
Confidence boost courtesy the Heavys?
Media - Mike Perry is having another tough weight cut | Sherdog Forums | UFC, MMA & Boxing Discussion

 

[DonQ94]

Does Arnold have any wrestling like other Tristar guys? From the little tape I've watched of him so far it looks like he mostly just boxes guys up, which surprised me as I thought he was a wrestler. From the tape I've watched on Yusuf although he definitely hits hard he mostly just plods forward throwing bombs with no lateral movement and gets clipped in all his fights, I could definitely see Arnold outboxing him with his crisp straight 1's and 2's if he sticks and moves and doesn't stand in the pocket and try to bang with Sadiq. Sadiq also got taken down in his fights against Gomez and Fili pretty easily although he's such a beast he just powers back to his feet. If Arnold has good wrestling like other tristar guys and he mixes in his takedowns with his nice boxing I can see a clear path to victory for him, I just don't know if he has the TD ability I need to watch more of his fights.

I think Allen's takedown defense is pretty bad, especially in the open cage. He got ragdolled by Mads Burnell. Offensively he doesn't use much wrestling himself and he's definitely not gonna keep Yusuf down.

 

[DonQ94]

I only rewatched his last fight so far so I might not have the full picture. Seems like Allen's grappling is more defensive than anything but he does have subs on his record. He seemed very uncomfortable when Lentz tried to close distance on him. Honestly I expect Sodiq to be the one wrestling here. I want to say he won most of r2 against Fili by pinning him to the mat.

My problem with Allen sticking and moving is his footwork is pretty predictable and he doesn't counter punch when pressured. He doesn't punch much while moving at all, usually prefering to plant his feet at range. Sodiq's footwork isn't great but Allen's movement is super easy to read. He doesn't utilize many angles and usually backs straight up when pressured before circling either left or right to reset his range. It's possible Allen has gotten better but unlike Fili I do not like Allen's inability to punch while backing up and discourage his opponents from advancing. I think if Sodiq can force trades and make it a less technical type of fight Allen will struggle to adapt. Allens lack of KO's and use of mainly single shots over combinations has me favoring Yusuf as well. I could see either man winning a decision but I think Yusuf has a better chance at getting a stoppage.

Yup that's pretty much my read and I have watched all of his UFC fights. He just doesn't have that much power nor the volume to break people.
I rate his movement a bit higher than you do. Circles fairly well imo, light on his feet and uses the jab to go in and out of range.
But Yusuf has great leg kicks and should be able to take away some of that movement before forcing exchanges where his power is vastly superior.

 

[Sono07]

On the plus side, DRod hasn't been knocked out, and the one fight I've seen him rocked in it was perhaps his worst performance in the UFC. Yet he ended up storming right back and winning. I think so long as he doesn't run face first into a huge Perry bomb with no defensive guard then he's going to win this pretty clearly.

DRod is consistent with his jab, and keeps his hands up. I don't see what training Perry could have gotten in the past few months that isn't going to see his face get mulched from eating jabs. I guess the real question for me is about DRod's mentality. Is he going to get drawn into a brawl? It's possible, but this is a big chance for him. Shine against Perry and he might be able to get himself a fringe contender next time out.

For what it's worth, I'd have taken Dalby over Perry easily. I think Perry would really struggle with Dalby's movement and defence.

Gonna watch some Sodiq/Allen fights tonight, will report back.


EDIT:
Confidence boost courtesy the Heavys?
Media - Mike Perry is having another tough weight cut | Sherdog Forums | UFC, MMA & Boxing Discussion

Personally I would recommend waiting until the weigh ins at least if you want to bet Drod. I really think an in shape Perry is dangerous here. As far as boxing technique goes Perry actually isn't that bad he just fights like a wild man sometimes. The issue I see with Perry is a lack of discipline honestly. He looked like crap in his last 2 fight but he also wasn't really training at a gym.

The benefit I see from Perry having training partners is it will help get his timing and reactions dialed back in. He had the potential to murder Means much worse than DRod did but the guy didn't bother training properly.

I wouldn't put too much stock in that post from the Heavies. Perry is a bit of a social media Diva and I could see him complaining just to complain since he botched his weight cut last time. Last fight there were several videos of him eating ice cream and other garbage like week of the fight. Him complaining about the cut in my opinion means he is taking it more seriously and working on his poor self-discipline.

Not sure if Perry has assembled a proper camp/team but it is good to see him active in the gyms. Looks like he has been between 2 local gyms in Florida. Mma Masters where covington trains and The Goat Shed Academy both seem to be up and coming gyms in my opinion. Sounds like a hole in the wall but the Goat Shed team recently had a good showing at Titan FC 68. They were actually filming a Netflix documentary for the Goat Shed during the Titan FC event (shocker they did so well right?)

I need to dig back into Drod but he has always had this skinny fat look to me like the guy could probably cut to 155. I will disagree about betting Dalby over Perry though. Dalby got flat lined by a 155er on short notice in Jesse Ronson before he beat Drod. Off the top of my head Perry seems like a better version of DRod's former opponent Gabe Green. I think Perry is better at cutting off the cage and applying his pressure too. I could see Perry having alot of similar success the way Gabe did and possibly even being the first to KO Rodriguez.

 

[Sono07]

Yup that's pretty much my read and I have watched all of his UFC fights. He just doesn't have that much power nor the volume to break people.
I rate his movement a bit higher than you do. Circles fairly well imo, light on his feet and uses the jab to go in and out of range.
But Yusuf has great leg kicks and should be able to take away some of that movement before forcing exchanges where his power is vastly superior.

My issue with Allen's footwork is his preference of lateral movement over use of angles. Most high level strikers utilize moving backwards and forwards on angles rather than in straight lines, just watch some of Dom Cruz's striking and movement for an excellent example. It helps to minimize openings for the opponent to strike and is alot less predictable than lateral movement(once again Cruz is an excellent example of this).

I do think Allen moves well but I see room for improvement and personally his movement style seems very easy to read and predict for a striker with better utilization of angular movement. Not sure if Sodiq will be that guy. Still between the way he moves and the fact he doesn't do much counter striking at all it is a recipe that will make him very easy to predict and pressure for high level strikers who move well.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Still taping the Allen/Yusuf fight but I will say I don't think Arnold is much if any better of a fighter than Andre Fili. I bet Allen to beat Lentz and he looked worse than I thought in that fight, especially after rewatching it.

His boxing is good but he isn't the most well rounded and doesn't respond well to being pressured. He is a striker that prefers to reset his range rather than counter punch. Allen has good hand speed but his movements and kicking game are lackluster at best.

I like Yusuf with a grappling and power advantage here. I don't think Yusuf looked great against Fili but I doubt it is easy to hold down a wrestler from Team Alpha Male. I think Sodiq needs to crowd Allen and cut off his range but I could see a 50/50 boxing match if he does not.

Allen is pretty well rounded. Nick lentz is no push over. A lot of people figured that fight would be close.
Sodiq is flashy but he’s really low volume. Not much of a ground game but reasonable takedown defense.
Fight is a pick em to me

 

[Sono07]

Allen is pretty well rounded. Nick lentz is no push over. A lot of people figured that fight would be close.
Sodiq is flashy but he’s really low volume. Not much of a ground game but reasonable takedown defense.
Fight is a pick em to me

I could see that. I won't be surprised with a decision for either man. Personally I'm leaning Sodiq's NSC line. I like his power/strength advantage and Allen's last tko was a doctor stoppage nearly 7 years ago. I might pass all together but I've found more reasons to dislike Allen here. I know Lentz is no scrub but I could see Sodiq replicating alot of success Lentz had in crowding and grappling Allen.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Personally I would recommend waiting until the weigh ins at least if you want to bet Drod. I really think an in shape Perry is dangerous here. As far as boxing technique goes Perry actually isn't that bad he just fights like a wild man sometimes. The issue I see with Perry is a lack of discipline honestly. He looked like crap in his last 2 fight but he also wasn't really training at a gym.

The benefit I see from Perry having training partners is it will help get his timing and reactions dialed back in. He had the potential to murder Means much worse than DRod did but the guy didn't bother training properly.

I wouldn't put too much stock in that post from the Heavies. Perry is a bit of a social media Diva and I could see him complaining just to complain since he botched his weight cut last time. Last fight there were several videos of him eating ice cream and other garbage like week of the fight. Him complaining about the cut in my opinion means he is taking it more seriously and working on his poor self-discipline.

Not sure if Perry has assembled a proper camp/team but it is good to see him active in the gyms. Looks like he has been between 2 local gyms in Florida. Mma Masters where covington trains and The Goat Shed Academy both seem to be up and coming gyms in my opinion. Sounds like a hole in the wall but the Goat Shed team recently had a good showing at Titan FC 68. They were actually filming a Netflix documentary for the Goat Shed during the Titan FC event (shocker they did so well right?)

I need to dig back into Drod but he has always had this skinny fat look to me like the guy could probably cut to 155. I will disagree about betting Dalby over Perry though. Dalby got flat lined by a 155er on short notice in Jesse Ronson before he beat Drod. Off the top of my head Perry seems like a better version of DRod's former opponent Gabe Green. I think Perry is better at cutting off the cage and applying his pressure too. I could see Perry having alot of similar success the way Gabe did and possibly even being the first to KO Rodriguez.

The money is already down on DRod, my friend. I didn't love the odds, but do believe they're accurate. I don't play with much money, because I've been so inconsistently able to really be engaged with the time to follow everything close enough to have an informed opinion. Luckily, that's changed nowadays, which means I have more time to watch tape and share thoughts with you fine people here.

Anyway, on topic: I think Perry's power is a little overblown. I think he's maybe a little above average. I would say between the two, they're probably pretty even in terms of that aspect of their skills. D-Rod has a lot of KO's too, but he's not throwing the same big hooks as Perry. If most of what you throw is massive hooks, well you'd damn well better be KOing people. I don't read much into the Ronson win over Dalby, I think that was something of a fluke. Ronson is a respectable journeyman fighter, and as a +300 in that fight... well he's bound to run into that every once in awhile. Plus, he was juiced. I hear that makes you a super athlete.

I can see your point on the post from the Heavies. Perry is well-known for his diva attitude.

I agree with you on the "skinny fat" build of DRod. Again, without knowing anything about the man as a person, it's something he could certainly rectify if he's taking his career more seriously and is now earning some money to invest in himself. I surely think he's taking his career more seriously than Perry takes his career. He's apparently working out of Cowboy's camp, so that could be a good sign, given Cowboy's past experience with Perry. DRod will have a pretty decent height/reach advantage on Perry too, which should help his jab-focused strategy should he employ it (which, to his credit, he seems to do most of the time).

Interestingly, DRod had one fight at LW, but the next two at 165 before returning to 170. He debuted as a MW, though obviously I don't think there's a lot of stock in that. If anything, I think Perry's built more for LW given his height.

I'm not sure I saw the Gabe Green fight, I'll add it to the list for viewing.

Enjoy our discussions, friend!

 

[Sono07]

The money is already down on DRod, my friend. I didn't love the odds, but do believe they're accurate. I don't play with much money, because I've been so inconsistently able to really be engaged with the time to follow everything close enough to have an informed opinion. Luckily, that's changed nowadays, which means I have more time to watch tape and share thoughts with you fine people here.

Anyway, on topic: I think Perry's power is a little overblown. I think he's maybe a little above average. I would say between the two, they're probably pretty even in terms of that aspect of their skills. D-Rod has a lot of KO's too, but he's not throwing the same big hooks as Perry. If most of what you throw is massive hooks, well you'd damn well better be KOing people. I don't read much into the Ronson win over Dalby, I think that was something of a fluke. Ronson is a respectable journeyman fighter, and as a +300 in that fight... well he's bound to run into that every once in awhile. Plus, he was juiced. I hear that makes you a super athlete.

I can see your point on the post from the Heavies. Perry is well-known for his diva attitude.

I agree with you on the "skinny fat" build of DRod. Again, without knowing anything about the man as a person, it's something he could certainly rectify if he's taking his career more seriously and is now earning some money to invest in himself. I surely think he's taking his career more seriously than Perry takes his career. He's apparently working out of Cowboy's camp, so that could be a good sign, given Cowboy's past experience with Perry. DRod will have a pretty decent height/reach advantage on Perry too, which should help his jab-focused strategy should he employ it (which, to his credit, he seems to do most of the time).

Interestingly, DRod had one fight at LW, but the next two at 165 before returning to 170. He debuted as a MW, though obviously I don't think there's a lot of stock in that. If anything, I think Perry's built more for LW given his height.

I'm not sure I saw the Gabe Green fight, I'll add it to the list for viewing.

Enjoy our discussions, friend!

I'm about the same way, I don't bet anything huge. I only recently started committing more time and slightly larger bets. I do have a habit of being getting tunnel vision or almost falling in love with my reads occasionally. Definitely not here to talk anyone out of a bets though, just sharing thoughts on what I've seen. That and personally I wait until weigh ins for alot of my bets just as a habit or part of my research but I do miss out on line value that way.

I did forget they overturned Ronson's win. Definitely not here to talk anyone out of a bets. Still at risk of being moderated I'd say a pretty high percentage of the UFC roster enjoys the occasional juice cocktail. Guess it isn't cheating if most are doing it but you see examples from champions like TJ Dillashaw to Jon Jones, and those are just the ones who got caught.

You're probably not wrong Drod might be the harder working fighter especially now that he is profiting from it. I will say I think Drod has been with Cowboy's team for a long time so I don't think he has changed anything major there. I don't doubt he has been improving though, his frame looked much more filled out in the Dalby fight. Good call on the Cowboy connection. I think Perry and Cerrone's relationship was muddled by Cowboy leaving Rufus Sport or something but you are spot on Rodriguez should be able to learn from Cerrone regardless.

I could see Drod winning behind his jab but I think he really needs to land a big shot to discourage Perry's pressure. I dont see Perry retreating from a jab heavy offense but Drod could outwork him for sure, if Perry shows up in poor shape. Luque turned Perry into Mr. Potatohead (one of the worst broken noses ive seen) and Mike was still pushing forward even scoring TD's. The height is tough to call William Knight is fighting at 205 on this card and isn't much bigger than Perry, hell former WW champion Woodley wasn't a big guy either.

Best of luck, I would recommend that Green Rodriguez fight. I think is a good comparison here that and it was a decently fun scrap just to watch. Best of luck I wouldn't be surprised if this is DRod's coming out party. To me Perry is a wildcard and I am hesitant to bet on or against him though.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I could see that. I won't be surprised with a decision for either man. Personally I'm leaning Sodiq's NSC line. I like his power/strength advantage and Allen's last tko was a doctor stoppage nearly 7 years ago. I might pass all together but I've found more reasons to dislike Allen here. I know Lentz is no scrub but I could see Sodiq replicating alot of success Lentz had in crowding and grappling Allen.

Sodiq has shown vulnerability to southpaws in the past, first Benitez cracked him in the first round,


Time stamped




and Andre fili switched to south paw in the third round and out pointed him.

Stats | UFC (ufcstats.com)



They don't call it the south paw jinx for nothing.

 

[Sono07]

Sodiq has shown vulnerability to southpaws in the past, first Benitez cracked him in the first round,


Time stamped




and Andre fili switched to south paw in the third round and out pointed him.

Stats | UFC (ufcstats.com)



They don't call it the south paw jinx for nothing.

Not sure if I would call it a jinx as much as a learned/inherent advantage. Good catch I'm not crazy on Yusuf and this could really be a 50/50 fight. At their age and given this much time between fights both men could have probably improved significantly as well. Nothing line or betting specific but I thought this was a good video discussing brain lateralization and hand preference that could be relevant. Solid watch in my opinion.

 

[Sono07]

I hate to suck up all the air here but I'm starting to think Impa's line might not be bad. Sasha is very unconventional but doesn't work well in the pocket or at close range in general. I'm worried about Impa dropping to 170 but Sasha makes alot of mistakes and leaves alot of openings especially in his grappling. Even a dehydrated Impa should have better cardio than Sasha's last opponent. Impa's grappling and close range striking will probably be big factors here.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Why is Kansaganay such a heavy favourite???

Buckley won me some money beating this dude the last time out... Palatnikov at +250 is wild.

What am I missing Sherbros?

 

[Post 2 Decision]

I hate to suck up all the air here but I'm starting to think Impa's line might not be bad. Sasha is very unconventional but doesn't work well in the pocket or at close range in general. I'm worried about Impa dropping to 170 but Sasha makes alot of mistakes and leaves alot of openings especially in his grappling. Even a dehydrated Impa should have better cardio than Sasha's last opponent. Impa's grappling and close range striking will probably be big factors here.

Missed this haha

 

[Sono07]

More fun thoughts for anyone considering the Griffin/Saldana. No memory of Saldana but I think Griffins last loss deserves more context. Jordan Griffin was scheduled to fight Derrick Minner just 2 weeks before he fought Zalal. I believe Griffin made weight for the original fight and then again very shortly after. That probably hurt his performance there and could be misleading. No memory of Saldana atm but Griffin's last loss deserves more context in my opinion.

 

[Sono07]

Missed this haha

I thought that too. Usually a guy gets sent to the shadow realm he isn't this big of a favorite next time out. I'm not done taping but Sasha is unconventional and leaves alot of openings. No bet yet but I think Impa could have alot of success in close ranges and a wrestling gameplan might be very successful against the less conventional fighter here. Impa is probably better than Sasha's last opponent (at least cardio wise) and Cosce nearly finished Sasha early.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

More fun thoughts for anyone considering the Griffin/Saldana. No memory of Saldana but I think Griffins last loss deserves more context. Jordan Griffin was scheduled to fight Derrick Minner just 2 weeks before he fought Zalal. I believe Griffin made weight for the original fight and then again very shortly after. That probably hurt his performance there and could be misleading. No memory of Saldana atm but Griffin's last loss deserves more context in my opinion.

Saldana is making his UFC debut. He was set up to win on Contender Series, got a 3rd round finish on the card with the Hunsucker v Vandera fight and Carlos Ulberg on it

 

[Stat_Collector]

Not sure if I would call it a jinx as much as a learned/inherent advantage. Good catch I'm not crazy on Yusuf and this could really be a 50/50 fight. At their age and given this much time between fights both men could have probably improved significantly as well. Nothing line or betting specific but I thought this was a good video discussing brain lateralization and hand preference that could be relevant. Solid watch in my opinion.

cool video i'm a subscriber, they have a cool video on megalodons.

I think the left hand advantage comes from just not coming across many left handers and needing to make adjustments. Evolution biology further confirms this. I can imagine they use to dealing with slipping a left jab and avoiding the power right but instead they get thrown off by a right jab coming in from the opposite side disturbing their timing.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Why is Kansaganay such a heavy favourite???

Buckley won me some money beating this dude the last time out... Palatnikov at +250 is wild.

What am I missing Sherbros?

Sasha is a ama boxer champ in china and a kickboxing champ in newyork, more striking experience outside of mma. A purple belt bjj tournament winner. Has 5 kos in his record wile Impa has 0. Impa's only chance to win is to outpoint him, but your placing your faith on a college ball player vs a guy with more combat sport experience.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'll be in Las Vegas for this card.

Send me a PM if any of you are going to be there and want to meet up.