UFC 262 Chandler vs Olivera

[Omni1]

the problem is i dont know what the holland fight says, its not enough footage, i wish it went on longer. He looked slow but is that enough when Andre is not a good standup fighter. His best bet is a stick and move or wrestle and control his guard. I just dont feel secured with him, he is chinny too. If this was the first fight of the card i'd pick Andre, but its the middle fight, it would burn a lot of wins and end my night short.

This fight is unbettable.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Every time I post on here late at night when I’m contemplating bets they end up losing horrendously so let’s see...

Edson @ + is ridiculous. Grapple fucked by Khabib and Lee. Dismantled Hooker, Kod by gaethje. Beat Felder, beat ige. He’s going to kick the shit out of Shane’s legs and avoid anything significant. When you come at Edson with no threat of a takedown and being able to hold him down he fucks everyone up (I consider gaethje on a way higher level than ‘everyone’ and Edson made the mistake of the stand and bang game with him very early on instead of keeping range)

Also think Olivera is going to piece Chandler up on the feet. His boxing was ridiculously sharp vs Tony, if chandler can get consistent takedowns (which I also doubt) he’ll get caught in a transition over 5 rounds.

parlaying both ML heavy ‍

I'm very much with you on the Barboza at + odds. I haven't seen anyone suggest any rationale why Burgos should be favoured other than "he puts on pressure." Ok, cool. He gets hit and dropped a decent amount too. He leaves his lead leg out there. He keeps his hands down.

Since nobody wants to offer much insight into what might be the tastiest odds on this card, I decided I'd play devil's advocate for myself.

How does Burgos win? Well, as people who have discussed it briefly pointed out, pressure. I've seen the Gaethje fight as something people think Burgos can replicate. I don't believe that. Burgos does not hit like Gaethje, he's not in the same ballpark.

So what's another loss that Barboza has to a pressure fighter? Michael Johnson, back in 2015. It was a close fight, but one that Johnson absolutely won because of his pressure. It was almost 100% a kickboxing match, and Johnson won it. Barboza did very little with his hands in this fight. He threw the occasional wide looping shot, but it seemed like every major strike he landed was a kick. This was also, in hindsight, one of the very best versions we've seen of Michael Johnson (and when he's on, he's a pretty effective MMA kickboxer).

Johnson put on not just a high pace, but also featured an absolute ton of movement. Compared to Burgos, Johnson was moving a lot more. Barboza never found a great opportunity to land kicks on Johnson, the few times he went for the flashy stuff Johnson was long gone (though he did land one nice spinning back kick later in the fight). Johnson's movement, pressure and volume won him the day.

The biggest takeaway here for me, aside from how effective Johnson was, was how much Barboza has improved his hands from 2015-present.

How about another loss Barboza has to a notoriously high-paced fighter in Tony Ferguson. Immediately off the bat, Barboza's hands look better, and this is in the same year (beginning vs Johnson, end vs Ferguson). Ferguson, like Burgos, is hittable. Barboza lands some good shots on him while Tony chases him around. They end up on the ground, and Tony hits him with an illegal upkick that seems to rock Barboza a bit. Tony continues to chase him around, but is losing most of the striking exchanges by eating counters as he charges in.

At the end of the first, Tony's pressure seems to be draining Barboza, something that didn't seem an issue vs Johnson. The second round starts out with much the same, Tony chasing and eating counters but he lands an elbow that busts Barboza open real bad. A nice spinning elbow from Tony and a scramble ends with him snatching his siggy D'arce choke and that's the fight.

Textbook Tony fight. Lost the first round (imo, 2 of Sherdog's 3 play-by-play scores had it 10-8 due to a point deduction, other had it 9-9).

Is Burgos capable of replicating this? I doubt it. He doesn't bring quite the same pace that Ferguson does, not will he offer a ground threat (Tony went for a bunch of Imari rolls).

If anyone is going to bet this, I would suggest watching Charles Rosa vs Burgos. Rosa is like a bum-tier version of Barboza, and he has no problems landing kicks and overhands on Burgos.

In conclusion, Burgos does not move like a Tony Johnson or an MJ, and does not have the kill power of a Gaethje.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

 

[Jordan3399]

Every time I post on here late at night when I’m contemplating bets they end up losing horrendously so let’s see...

Edson @ + is ridiculous. Grapple fucked by Khabib and Lee. Dismantled Hooker, Kod by gaethje. Beat Felder, beat ige. He’s going to kick the shit out of Shane’s legs and avoid anything significant. When you come at Edson with no threat of a takedown and being able to hold him down he fucks everyone up (I consider gaethje on a way higher level than ‘everyone’ and Edson made the mistake of the stand and bang game with him very early on instead of keeping range)

Also think Olivera is going to piece Chandler up on the feet. His boxing was ridiculously sharp vs Tony, if chandler can get consistent takedowns (which I also doubt) he’ll get caught in a transition over 5 rounds.

parlaying both ML heavy ‍

Random comeback flying knee vs Dariush aside, when has Edson ever beaten a pressure fighter? It's not the TD threat that is an issue.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

What on earth has happened to Betanysport? Looks they updated the site Tuesday and I am not a fan. Props not available. Some fights aren’t available

I actually liked the simplicity of it

now the layout is awful

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Random comeback flying knee vs Dariush aside, when has Edson ever beaten a pressure fighter? It's not the TD threat that is an issue.

Losing a round to Dariush is not as bad as losing a round in striking to Charles Rosa. Burgos brings an in your face but methodical pressure. The guys who beat Barboza move a lot more or come grappling.

What fight would you point to in particular? I've watched so many of Barboza's at this point now, but not too much of the old old stuff. If Barboza had appeared to be slowing down I'd be more inclined to believe this. I'm sure he's probably close to at this point in his career, but I don't think he's there yet.

 

[Jordan3399]

Losing a round to Dariush is not as bad as losing a round in striking to Charles Rosa. Burgos brings an in your face but methodical pressure. The guys who beat Barboza move a lot more or come grappling.

What fight would you point to in particular? I've watched so many of Barboza's at this point now, but not too much of the old old stuff. If Barboza had appeared to be slowing down I'd be more inclined to believe this. I'm sure he's probably close to at this point in his career, but I don't think he's there yet.

I agree Rosa is in a way a trash version of Barboza but the key advantage Rosa has over Barboza is cardio and output. It's not that Burgos wasn't moving forward there he wasn't throwing enough so got outvolumed early cause Rosa was throwing 100+ sig strikes a round. Barboza's cardio wasn't great at 155 as it was and he never came close to that output, at 145 now he's clearly slowing in lower paced fights and looked poor in both R3s accepting getting stuck on his back. The closest Barboza has ever got to that kind of volume was with Hooker and he was exhausted in R2, Hooker just faded worse. You can make the argument Barboza's power negates volume somewhat but Burgos forward pressure even like he did with Rosa will force Barboza to constantly work circling and resetting at his range tiring him.

I think at a minimum Barboza is gassed by R3, likely earlier with how he's looked at 145 and while his boxing has improved it's not on the level of Burgos still and there is a big difference in durability. As long as Burgos is moving forward to force boxing exchanges like normal I think he is fine, Barboza might just put him out cold in R1 but he's never been a huge puncher and Burgos chin is tough so I think it's not a high % outcome. Not to mention it'll open him up to getting KOd too, he probably gets forced back repeatedly and gasses instead using explosive actions trying to keep Burgos off.

Overall, I give Barboza a reasonable chance of winning R1, especially if Burgos fights dumb like he has before but if he's throwing volume it's probably close. The KO is possible but it's rare for Barboza to KO anyone with his hands, with Burgos size and stance he probably needs a spinning hook kick which landing perfectly on the backfoot is tough to say the least. Beyond that I think it's Burgos fight to lose and he stops Barboza eventually. Maybe Barboza can squeak out R2 with a blast double and some big moments to edge a dec but it's not something I'd count on and even then he's got to survive the third.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

You think he's looked worse at 145? I don't, I was afraid he was going to lose durability on the drop down because of the weight cut, but he seemed to have no issues there vs Ige or Amirkhani. I thought he won all 3 Rds (including a 10-8) against Amirkhani. Two judges thought the same, less the 10-8, and one judge gave Amir Khani the 3rd. All three from Sherdog, for whatever that's worth, had it 30-26, too. The same Amirkhani who won a round against Burgos.

While Barboza lost the 3rd to Ige, I thought he pretty clearly won the first 2. But Ige likely won that 3rd round with a takedown and some ground and pound toward the end.

I'm not sold that was on Barboza being too tired, but rather (foolishly) feeling comfortable that he was winning. He seemed to learn the lesson somewhat against Mr Finland, where he put a higher rate on him. A finish would have been nice, but it's not as if Burgos finish over Amirkhani is terribly impressive. He finished him with 30 seconds in the 3rd round.

Food for thought on the statistics:
Barboza lands 3.98 sigs per minute and has 43% accuracy
Barboza absorbs 4.03 sigs per minute and has a 60% striking defence

Burgos lands 7.31 sigs per minute and has 50% accuracy
Burgos absorbs 5.81 sigs per minute and has a 60% striking defence

If those stats are taking in time spent on the ground (I assume those numbers are based on total fight time) and features any ground and pound as significant strikes, I think that pretty heavily decreases Barboza's sigs per minute, and mildly increases (the Khabib and Lee fights come to mind) his strikes absorbed.

Burgos on the other hand, spent the majority of his career in striking matches, and absorbs a pretty significant amount of damage.

I'm gonna keep watchin' more of these fights. I'm just of the opinion the odds should be swapped. If Barboza was coming in as having wins over Amirkhani, Ige and Felder, he'd be the favourite almost certainly, no?

Thanks for the insights though @Jordan3399, respect your opinion.

 

[Jordan3399]

You think he's looked worse at 145? I don't, I was afraid he was going to lose durability on the drop down because of the weight cut, but he seemed to have no issues there vs Ige or Amirkhani. I thought he won all 3 Rds (including a 10-8) against Amirkhani. Two judges thought the same, less the 10-8, and one judge gave Amir Khani the 3rd. All three from Sherdog, for whatever that's worth, had it 30-26, too. The same Amirkhani who won a round against Burgos.

While Barboza lost the 3rd to Ige, I thought he pretty clearly won the first 2. But Ige likely won that 3rd round with a takedown and some ground and pound toward the end.

I'm not sold that was on Barboza being too tired, but rather (foolishly) feeling comfortable that he was winning. He seemed to learn the lesson somewhat against Mr Finland, where he put a higher rate on him. A finish would have been nice, but it's not as if Burgos finish over Amirkhani is terribly impressive. He finished him with 30 seconds in the 3rd round.

Food for thought on the statistics:
Barboza lands 3.98 sigs per minute and has 43% accuracy
Barboza absorbs 4.03 sigs per minute and has a 60% striking defence

Burgos lands 7.31 sigs per minute and has 50% accuracy
Burgos absorbs 5.81 sigs per minute and has a 60% striking defence

If those stats are taking in time spent on the ground (I assume those numbers are based on total fight time) and features any ground and pound as significant strikes, I think that pretty heavily decreases Barboza's sigs per minute, and mildly increases (the Khabib and Lee fights come to mind) his strikes absorbed.

Burgos on the other hand, spent the majority of his career in striking matches, and absorbs a pretty significant amount of damage.

I'm gonna keep watchin' more of these fights. I'm just of the opinion the odds should be swapped. If Barboza was coming in as having wins over Amirkhani, Ige and Felder, he'd be the favourite almost certainly, no?

Thanks for the insights though @Jordan3399, respect your opinion.

Yeah I don't like Barboza at 145, I bet him in both fights there and Felder prior to that, think he won all 3 too but I'm not a fan recently of his ability to win minutes. Makwan was a huge step down and he did the bare minimum to win. Against Ige as well I thought he was losing minutes and it was hurting Ige that was winning him rounds. I expect Burgos to be a lot harder to hurt than Ige or Makwan, plus he'll keep Barboza working to gas him so don't see any easy win paths. On the other hand I think Burgos walking forward doing his thing should be enough, although there is only so much faith you can have in a guy like that.

Do agree Burgos wasn't great against Makwan either but think that more relates to him specifically being bad at defending the rear bodylock wrestling so Makwan had a safe position to grind until he gassed, we saw Cub do similar to Burgos also. It's a hole in his game but I don't think it's too relevant here.

 

[mkess101]

What on earth has happened to Betanysport? Looks they updated the site Tuesday and I am not a fan. Props not available. Some fights aren’t available

I actually liked the simplicity of it

now the layout is awful

They have no props and one ML (Barboza/Burgos) avail for Saturday night. They have some over/unders.

It's a trainwreck right now.

 

[Bakayoko]

Chasing to get back is rarely a good idea. Especially on a fight like that where either guy could kill the other quickly.

I favor Oliveira by a decent margin but would very much recommend against max betting this fight to make up losses.

I also took a beating this weekend so I am looking for spots as well, but Oliveira/Chandler is way too close to chase your losses through this fight.

Dariush/Ferguson, in favor of Dariush, is a better spot and even in that fight there are too many unknowns to bet the house on one guy.

The May cards do not have many good spots, but the June cards have a ton of juicy ones with some amazing value so would recommend just being patient.

Yeah,I dropped the idea,was just hot from losing money on going full retard betting Delija at PFL and then losing money on Klein in a fight where he seemed off.However,after analysis I will be betting solid both Oliveria and Dariush,so here's my take:
Oliveira-Chandler
As a few guys mentioned my biggest concerne in this fight is that Oliveira is for sure hittable.He's not an in&out,defensive magician,more likely he just likes to exchange and Chandler has got that KO power.So,Chandler KO is definitely there.That being said,while Chandler is explosive and hits hard,his striking is pretty basic,consists mostly of 1-2 punch attacks and the right hand is more dangerous against guys who fear takedowns which Oliveira is not.Good things for Oliveira on the feet is that his chin seems better and 155 and his more versatile offensivelly.When it comes to any kind of grappling I apsolutelly give the advantage to Oliveira.I think he's on another level than Chandler there.I think Chandler's TDD is overated and Charles will bring him down and if Chandler doesn't go in ful defense mode on the ground there is a high chance he'll get submited,Oliveira just needs a little to pull it off.All together put on paper I give it 70%-30 % in favor of Oliveira,and the bookies have it 55-45 so Oliveira is a value pick for me.
Darisuh-Ferguson
Sure,Tony's got a path to victory too.Probably,overwhelming Dariush,specially if he gasses,or doing damage with elbows or some shit.But,as I was thinking about this fight and watching tape,then reading other guys comments,the most mentioned reason why not bet Dariush is "because it's Tony".Kind of like the mystique is still there.But,let's put it this way-if you watched the last two Tony fights and it wasn't Tony but some other John Smith,what would the odds be in this match?I bet Dariush would be a -300 favorite.I don't think Tony will magically turn beast mode here,he is old and shot and in for a bad match up in Dariush.

 

[sonhow]

I like the Barboz-Burgos talk but in the end I see a close fight and that means the Houston judges will just pick a name out of a hat and award the fight to him.

 

[AK-47]

see a lot of people on both sides of the fence with the Main event and can see both sides of the arguements aswell. I was on Chandler when the fight first got announced and after taping im still on Chandler.

Charles is a few inches taller with slightly longer reach but doesnt use his reach well preferring to move forwards and close the distance + clinch body lock against the cage as opposed to using his range and keep opponent on the outside. this kind of approach requires good head movement which olivera doesnt have. his diversity of attack patterns however is better than chandlers boxing based striking approach. Oliveira best success if he uses it will be low kicks from distance and knees if he gets closer. Chandler has very good lateral movement and moves his head well when closing the distance and should be able to avoid Charles stright line attacks and land. Chandler has power in both hands and will be in a good position to land a significan strikes from whichever sides he moves to. One thing i noticed with chandler which could be bad for him is how low he dips with entering into distance which could be an oppurtunity for charles to land a knee and put him out.

chandler is a natural LW and oliveira has fought mostly at FW but Charles has looked good so far in his lightweight stint so I wouldnt say this is much of a factor. I think chandler is the physically stronger of the 2 fighters and has the advantage in that respect.

in the grappling department its a bit dicey. charles has a brilliant submission game with long limbs suited to snatch chokes from variety of different angles but is strongest from the top and in scrambles. on the other hand chandler is short and stocky has a thick neck and big traps and will be difficult to choke with anything other than a RNC. also chandler has excellent submission defence which is evident by never being submitted in his pro career. he also has a nasty guillotine himself and would not be suprised at all if he catches Oliveira in a choke. whilst Oliveira has a wicked offensive submission game his sub defense game is lacking and has been caught in guillotines himself more than once. Chandler is training at Sanford MMA and rolls regular with Gilbert Burns so you would have to think his Sub defense is going to be on point. He also has great GnP and could easily finish the fight there. even though i would give the BJJ edge to Oliveira I belive Chandler has more ways to finish if the fights hits the mat.

durability and heart i give the edge to chandler by a clear margin. by this i am discounting a knockout or submission becuase either fighter can get caught and finished and durabilty at this point is disregarded. but general fight durabilty and absorbing punishment and still fighting to win is where i feel this fight will favour chandler. Oliveira has also never been in a 5 round fight and chandler has multiple times. Oliveira is excellent when hes dishing out the punishment but when the roll is reversed he will fold and has shown this multiple times. this is also something i dont believe can be trained out of a fighter. Oliveira has always fallen short at the big moments and doesnt deal with pressure well. Both his last fights were in the Apex with no crowd. Saturday night he will be headlining his first ppv event infront of thousands of fans who will be rooting for the american. If oliveira gets hurt with anything he will not recover and the fight is over. Oliveira best path to victory is catching a submission after he hurts Chandler with strikes or some crazy scramble like he did Kevin Lee as I dont believe he will be able to get a static submission from top or from bottom.

My prediction Late Round 1 KO or Mid round 2 Chandler

 

[Monster Meat]

I like the Barboz-Burgos talk but in the end I see a close fight and that means the Houston judges will just pick a name out of a hat and award the fight to him.

yep huge value on the ferg +375 dec prop. I locked that one in

 

[mkess101]

Oliveira is excellent when hes dishing out the punishment but when the roll is reversed he will fold and has shown this multiple times. this is also something i dont believe can be trained out of a fighter.

Lee was putting it on him fairly well in round 1 (and part of rd 2 iirc) in that fight. Lee is about the fastest starter there is in MMA, I don't think he's ever lost the first round that I can remember. Oliveira wore it fine, didn't fold, just regrouped and turned the fight around as Lee faded.

I would agree that Charles isn't proven at all in some sort of 5 round war though, that much is true for sure. But I would disagree that fighters can't change when it comes to battling through adversity. Once a guy does it once, he's then proven to himself he's capable of it and it makes him less likely to look for a way out the next time. Similarly a guy who's never folded previously but then does finds it easier to do it going forward it seems.

 

[Juan Bombadil]

Gut says Chandler and Dariush

My heart wants Charles and Tony

 

[Ryan Kelly]

chandler has excellent submission defence which is evident by never being submitted in his pro career.

he also has a nasty guillotine himself and would not be suprised at all if he catches Oliveira in a choke. whilst Oliveira has a wicked offensive submission game his sub defense game is lacking and has been caught in guillotines himself more than once.

I see this fight basically exactly like you do. Sprinkled a little on Chandler sub +2000. Charlie has shown he is absolutely capable of quitting and just giving up his neck. Chandler also has the ability to drag him into that deep water where he’s uncomfortable. Also have a hard time seeing Mike getting subbed. But I’m also a huge mizzou homer so my objectivity is questionable.

 

[Oblivian]

Oliveira being subbed happened in fights where the opposition was welcoming the grappling and the scrambles. I'd be extremely surprised to see Chandler drop back on a guillotine. If he were to get a sub, I'd say an arm triangle would be far more likely. I don't even see him giving up any positioning to even try to get the back. If he's on the ground, he'll likely want to be on top and staying very tight.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

If one is to bet Chandler I like Chandler Round 1,2 or 3 at +250

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Burgos heavy on the lead leg, hope we see vintage Barboza tomorrow night

Barboza TKO round 3 due to leg kicks

 

[Pappetta]

weird stuff on weigh-ins.