lets get into it, pay attention
@mkess101 :
Taira/Candelario: Hard to get a read on Taira, I can only find 4 fights and he has faced zero adversity. I won't pretend like I know all the opponents on his record but Candelario should be by far his toughest test. He is also making his debut and fighting in the USA for the first time. Candelario has had a weakness to being taken down and put in bad positions but he has never been subbed and is a brown belt. The opponents taking him down are all BJJ black belts and have come in with a graple-heavy gameplan. Taira could sub him if he is a better jits fighter than those opponents but again who knows. Candelario is battle-tested, has great boxing and wrestling, and is the same size if not bigger. I don't like how he slows down, but in the one DEC win I have watched Taira didn't push a pace at all on the feet and got a few of his takedowns stuffed against a tiny Asian guy. Big dog or pass for me but probably should be a pass with the unknowns.
Yohan/Green: Personally think the money coming in on Green is crazy. I assume its lazy capping and people thinking Yohan is a gasser, Green isn't and that's enough to beat him. Yohan has two decision wins where he has clearly won round 3 in both with wrestling. Yes, he is huffing and puffing and it's bad optics but he pushes through. He has an explosive double and lands high amplitude takedowns then jumps straight onto the back or mount. Green has negative takedown defense. He is borderline pulling guard, even on the regionals bums are stuffing his takedowns and getting on top into mount and dominant positions. He is comfortable on his back but he isn't too dangerous and he gives up a lot of minutes. Burlinson from contender is a lot more active and dangerous with his jits and Yohan did great passing to side control when he threatened the guilly which shows me he is positionally aware. Gabe spent all of round 3 on his back against Rowe who was very compromised by the end of that fight. Honestly, if Rowe didn't fall over 5 times from a leg kick Green doesn't win that fight 29-28. His wrestling offense is also not good, he mostly just cage pushes. Green is a pressure brawler, has good cardio and good volume, but brawling with Yohan who hits like an absolute truck is not the right move. If Yohan wants to break up the pressure I don't see him struggling for takedowns. In the worst case, I would line this at pick-em, with Yohan winning early, and Gabe taking over late but my personal lean is that Yohan should be the slight fav. All the finishing upside and wrestling advantage.
De Silva/ Figgy: I wanted to hit De Silva at pickem here due to Figgy being so bad and Sila having all the athletism and finishing upside. He is giving me flakey vibes though if he doesn't finish I don't know if he will fall apart every single time. His other loss is a leg injury, thats big glass cannon vibes. Easy pass for me although the U1.5 is 3.00 which is interesting for a guy that never went over win or lose.
Elkins/Connelly: Good matchup for Elkins, Connelly is almost the exact replica of his style but worse. He is unathletic and usually can't get his grappling going until his opponents get tired. Is he going to out grapple Elkins, I don't see it. Someone like Minner is a way tougher opponent until he starts to fall apart. Connelly has no power and is only 1 year younger. Personally, I think Cub does the exact same thing to Connelly if they ever fight. There is something stopping me from playing Elkins, I know he is washed to bits but I also don't think Connelly can take advantage. Passing for now I guess.
Vera/Font: Good fight to end the night. Both are tough fighters with good cardio and output. I have no doubt Vera is going to be giving up the first round, he picks up the pressure as he goes but in the first, he gives space and usually loses. If he gives Font space no doubt Font will land his jabs and kicks to steal it. He might even get the second, I can see this going down to the third round, with Vera taking over in the 4th and 5th. I can maybe see Vera finishing Font, but I think 10-8s could be more likely since he is more an attrition finisher rather than a 1 punch guy. As much as Font gives me chinny vibes, he is tough and has a great gas tank. Vera doesn't really have a coherent game plan when he fights, he looks to force mistakes by coming forward, doesn't box much, and does most of his work in the clinch with knees and elbows. His wrestling isn't the best but he drags fighters down from the clinch. He won round 2 over Aldo with cage pushing and clinch strikes alone. I think Fonts wrestling is underrated, he takes a lot of fighters down including Simon, but his TDD is a bit average. He also doesn't check kicks and is heavy on his lead, being predominantly a boxer. I think Font can get takedowns like Frankie but I don't think he can control Vera as easily. I think this fight has so many angles to break down, especially in the 5 round aspect. I think Font starts off great, and Vera closes the gap the longer it goes. To beat Vera you have to outpoint him to a dec without slowing down or falling apart because he is probably the most durable guy in the UFC and he won't stop coming forward. Pick-em is probably my line here, so I would side with the slight dog. Live bet you might get better odds on Vera, and Font DEC is the only way I would play him.
