UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2, October 21, Abu Dhabi

Elliot +3.5 +250 is a solid play. It hits if he wins or if it goes to a decision and he gets atleast 1 round on all 3 judges scorecards with no 10-8s being awarded. Way better than his +350 ML imo
 
BigSteve said:
Rogue 30-27 incoming like on every single card recently. Be careful of the handicaps.
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Also if Mokaev executes his gameplan enough to win, I don't see how he isn't doing it for all 3 rounds. An Elliot win is possible, but he's going to be defending and sub-hunting more than he's going to have round-winning control imo.
 
rev0lver said:
Also if Mokaev executes his gameplan enough to win, I don't see how he isn't doing it for all 3 rounds. An Elliot win is possible, but he's going to be defending and sub-hunting more than he's going to have round-winning control imo.
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Mokaev has taken some rounds off in some of his recent fights so Tim could potentially win 1 even if he ends up losing.
 
rev0lver said:
Also if Mokaev executes his gameplan enough to win, I don't see how he isn't doing it for all 3 rounds. An Elliot win is possible, but he's going to be defending and sub-hunting more than he's going to have round-winning control imo.
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Hmm...IDK about that. Tim is a good scrambler. I could see a scenario where Mokaev takes him down but at some point Tim forces a scramble and has top position long enough to win the round. My concern would be the same as Steve's--that one judge decides Mokaev still gets the round and it's 29-28, 29-28, 30-27 Mokaev. Still might be a better play than the ML since it's still really nice dog odds at +250.
 
mkess101 said:
Jhavid fantasy score on Prizepicks is 107.5. I'm on the under. Henry never finished, and for Jhavid to go over in a decision win he'd need to hit like 5-6 TD's and land a lot of sig strikes. I don't see it. I think Jhavid likely wins but doesn't come close to this fantasy score.
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i'm kinda digging the over strikes for javid, 75 seems pretty low vs that punch magnet. barcelos and low volume gravely got their career highs landed vs him and i don't think javid will have a ton of wrestling success so it should be mainly striking battle.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
i'm kinda digging the over strikes for javid, 75 seems pretty low vs that punch magnet. barcelos and low volume gravely got their career highs landed vs him and i don't think javid will have a ton of wrestling success so it should be mainly striking battle.
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I like that too, but like his FS under better in case he does have some wrestling success. If he wrestles, he's not landing SS. And vice versa. Without a finish, he'd really need to rack up a TON of other stuff to cover.


I think Jubli's FS is way too high too. It's priced the same as guys who are huge faves to win in round 1. His FT is 10.5 so it's favored to get to rd 3 which would only give him 50 points for a round 3 win, 48.5 is his SS number, and 1.5 TD's. Doesn't add up to me.
 
mkess101 said:
I like that too, but like his FS under better in case he does have some wrestling success. If he wrestles, he's not landing SS. And vice versa. Without a finish, he'd really need to rack up a TON of other stuff to cover.


I think Jubli's FS is way too high too. It's priced the same as guys who are huge faves to win in round 1. His FT is 10.5 so it's favored to get to rd 3 which would only give him 50 points for a round 3 win, 48.5 is his SS number, and 1.5 TD's. Doesn't add up to me.
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Never underestimate Breeden's ability to get mauled quickly.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Never underestimate Breeden's ability to get mauled quickly.
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Oh it's possible. I'm just saying that PP's lines don't make sense in their totality. The fantasy score is crazy high for a fight they predict won't end early, and that they don't predict Jubli to rack up huge stats in. It's kinda perplexing.
 
I ended up watching all three of Javids UFC fights and all three of Henrys yesterday…. Took all evening with no finishes :)
The line cannot be right with Victor being +425.

Javid is good, really good, but he is not that good. No way.

Javid has crazy good defensive wrestling and ability to always end up on top. He is also very heavy from top position. I think this is his strongest game to be honest. His striking is good, but not great. He wants to keep it slow with him dictating the pace where he can jump in for a quick jab or throw a hard kick.
He has good stand-up, but when he gets pressured I feel like the technique is not always there. Look at round 1 vs Mendonca. Mendonca came hard with striking and grappling and at times Javid looked a bit sloppy and out of balance. Now don’t get me wrong, he has really good stand-up, but I feel like at least I had overrated it a bit.

Henry fights the same in all of his three fights and although he has had mixed results, I feel like his performance actually has been pretty consistent. Even when he lost to Assuncao and beat Barcelos I think he was pretty consistent in both fights. It was more the difference in opponent that made the result so different. I have heard a few times that “if you get the version of Henry that fought Barcelos this will happen, but if you get the Henry that fought Assuncao this will happen”. After watching all his fights again, I don’t really buy that narrative. Barcelos was willing to stay in the pocket and swing it out, while Assuncao just went for counters and takedowns. The Barcelos style of fighting suits Henry much better that was the difference imo. I would say Gravely falls somewhere in between Barcelos and Assuncao on the spectra of swinging in the pocket vs sit back and counter.

So how does this fit with the matchup against Javid? Well, I do think he has all the tools to implement the same game plan as Assuncao. Sit back and let Henry come to him and then counter and shot for takedowns. I think this style of fighting suits Javid very well. Therefore, I do lean Javid in this fight.

But, I will say this. If Henry can stuff the takedowns, I think this fight will be very close on the feet. Javid does get hit on the feet, he is a bit low volume and when pressured he doesn’t have the cleanest technique… I know a lot of people wont agree with me on this, but this is my read at least.

The line is in my view way off, there is no way I’m betting Javid at these odds and I would caution anyone who is thinking of parleying Javid.
I ended up making a small bet of 0.25U @+425 on Henry. Mostly because I wanted to follow through on my read when I spent so long time watching tape. For anyone who doesn't like the money line, I also think the point spread on Henry @+195 is solid bet.

TLDR: I think line is too wide. I think it will be close on the feet and if Henry can stuff takedowns he could win with volume.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
I ended up watching all three of Javids UFC fights and all three of Henrys yesterday…. Took all evening with no finishes :)
The line cannot be right with Victor being +425.

Javid is good, really good, but he is not that good. No way.

Javid has crazy good defensive wrestling and ability to always end up on top. He is also very heavy from top position. I think this is his strongest game to be honest. His striking is good, but not great. He wants to keep it slow with him dictating the pace where he can jump in for a quick jab or throw a hard kick.
He has good stand-up, but when he gets pressured I feel like the technique is not always there. Look at round 1 vs Mendonca. Mendonca came hard with striking and grappling and at times Javid looked a bit sloppy and out of balance. Now don’t get me wrong, he has really good stand-up, but I feel like at least I had overrated it a bit.

Henry fights the same in all of his three fights and although he has had mixed results, I feel like his performance actually has been pretty consistent. Even when he lost to Assuncao and beat Barcelos I think he was pretty consistent in both fights. It was more the difference in opponent that made the result so different. I have heard a few times that “if you get the version of Henry that fought Barcelos this will happen, but if you get the Henry that fought Assuncao this will happen”. After watching all his fights again, I don’t really buy that narrative. Barcelos was willing to stay in the pocket and swing it out, while Assuncao just went for counters and takedowns. The Barcelos style of fighting suits Henry much better that was the difference imo. I would say Gravely falls somewhere in between Barcelos and Assuncao on the spectra of swinging in the pocket vs sit back and counter.

So how does this fit with the matchup against Javid? Well, I do think he has all the tools to implement the same game plan as Assuncao. Sit back and let Henry come to him and then counter and shot for takedowns. I think this style of fighting suits Javid very well. Therefore, I do lean Javid in this fight.

But, I will say this. If Henry can stuff the takedowns, I think this fight will be very close on the feet. Javid does get hit on the feet, he is a bit low volume and when pressured he doesn’t have the cleanest technique… I know a lot of people wont agree with me on this, but this is my read at least.

The line is in my view way off, there is no way I’m betting Javid at these odds and I would caution anyone who is thinking of parleying Javid.
I ended up making a small bet of 0.25U @+425 on Henry. Mostly because I wanted to follow through on my read when I spent so long time watching tape. For anyone who doesn't like the money line, I also think the point spread on Henry @+195 is solid bet.

TLDR: I think line is too wide. I think it will be close on the feet and if Henry can stuff takedowns he could win with volume.
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I couldn't read ALL of this ( no offense I read most of it ). I agree line is wide and I think most do. I dont think Javid can fight like Assuncao, not many people can. Assuncao stunts everyones volume he is an expert counter striker. Javid couldn't even stunt Mendocas volume and he was all aggression no technique. Seems like a competitive fight with two solid dudes who throw a ton of volume.. Henry has great get-ups too
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Tbh I think Tim is more likely to fall into a sub early before he gets going.
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yeah early guilotine like he did to Cody.

but 3/5 if his subs were in rnd 3 and one in rnd 2.

tho Elliot has been subbed many times in rnd 1. you’re probably right. rnd 1 sub is a likely choice.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Shara round 3 TKO looks pretty good to me at 7.5

Maybe Dumas sub 4.75 against gassy Azaitar?
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I'm trying to remember Silva's sub losses. Were any of those club n sub where someone dropped him and finished via sub vs pounding him out? Asking because he's never been stopped by strikes and he's had a lot of fights. Shara Bullet is a pretty special striker imo...but Silva showed vs Perreira how tough he is to put away with strikes. Perreira hurt him twice in that fight and when he went for the kill, Silva recovered quickly and was back in the fight right away. And obviously Perreira is about as high level a striker as there is so Silva won't be "wowed" by Shara.
 
mkess101 said:
I'm trying to remember Silva's sub losses. Were any of those club n sub where someone dropped him and finished via sub vs pounding him out? Asking because he's never been stopped by strikes and he's had a lot of fights. Shara Bullet is a pretty special striker imo...but Silva showed vs Perreira how tough he is to put away with strikes. Perreira hurt him twice in that fight and when he went for the kill, Silva recovered quickly and was back in the fight right away. And obviously Perreira is about as high level a striker as there is so Silva won't be "wowed" by Shara.
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Shara isn't going to be going for any subs so I wouldn't worry about that. I think the Pereira fight wrecked him a bit and I don't know if he can take 3 rounds of damage like that again. For me I think Shara is capable of dishing that out. Assuming he's not USADA diminished he maintains a very high level of output in the third which if Bruno is slowing down through damage could imo lead to a mercy stoppage.

If you watch Shara's fights against Ragozin and Martynov they're both examples of what I mean. He's beating the absolute shit out of them in the 3rd. Ragozin managed to make it to the bell, but I think 30 seconds longer and he wouldn't have, dude really didn't want to get off the canvas the last time he had to.
 
mkess101 said:
I'm trying to remember Silva's sub losses. Were any of those club n sub where someone dropped him and finished via sub vs pounding him out? Asking because he's never been stopped by strikes and he's had a lot of fights. Shara Bullet is a pretty special striker imo...but Silva showed vs Perreira how tough he is to put away with strikes. Perreira hurt him twice in that fight and when he went for the kill, Silva recovered quickly and was back in the fight right away. And obviously Perreira is about as high level a striker as there is so Silva won't be "wowed" by Shara.
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Gerald dropped him.

Some say it was cause he was sick.

but I speculate that Gerald having fantastic kicks to the body is what weakened him. That and threat of the takedown.

Shara kicks are tailor made to break Silva down and get a finish.
 
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