UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2, October 21, Abu Dhabi

[MidgardSerpent]

He needs to show up, get finished quickly, and collect his check.

Usman's response :

This is why no one reads this shitty ass blog. At what point while I was lightly drilling did you hear me say that to Justin. Stop with the clickbait you idiot.

(Can't seem to link to his account for some reason)

 

[Brockstar]

I just went heavy on Khamzat ITD at -110.

Usman is broken.

 

[mkess101]

Usman's response :



(Can't seem to link to his account for some reason)

Ha I assumed there was nothing to that video. I'm fully assuming a healthy Usman is gonna get wrekt in round 1.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Ha I assumed there was nothing to that video. I'm fully assuming a healthy Usman is gonna get wrekt in round 1.

I would advice caution either way. That dude that posted the video might have misinterpretted the footage either intentionally or not, or Usman is trying to do some damage control.

I got Chimaev at -250 in a parlay, and I feel okay with those odds in both scenario's.

 

[mkess101]

I would advice caution either way. That dude that posted the video might have misinterpretted the footage either intentionally or not, or Usman is trying to do some damage control.

I got Chimaev at -250 in a parlay, and I feel okay with those odds in both scenario's.

I'm basically all in on fight doesn't start rd 3. I think Khamzat smashes Usman and does it pretty quickly.

 

[BigSteve]

I'm basically all in on fight doesn't start rd 3. I think Khamzat smashes Usman and does it pretty quickly.

what makes u say that? I get Usman is hurt in every fight, his recovery is decent though. If Khamza was going to run through anyone it really should have been a chinny Burns

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I'm basically all in on fight doesn't start rd 3. I think Khamzat smashes Usman and does it pretty quickly.

I also have an uncomfortable amount of units on Khamzat. At this point I have 3U on the ML and 1.5U on ITD. Which is way more than I usually have on a single fighter.

 

[sonhow]

what makes u say that? I get Usman is hurt in every fight, his recovery is decent though. If Khamza was going to run through anyone it really should have been a chinny Burns

Burns only chinny when hit with jab or short straight. Seems to handle everything else.

 

[sonhow]

I actually think Usman has a shot if he doesnt take too much damage in rd 1. Thats why Id say Kham rds 1-2 or Usman ml or livebet. Being as aggressive as Kham has its downside. Its that gastank he needs to look out for.

Normally Id say the narrative and history suggests Kham easy win. But Im not so sure anymore. He isnt the first guy to ruin his career due to surrounding himself with wrong people and making poor choices regarding his training. Its too early to know for sure but I wouldnt be surprised either way.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I actually think Usman has a shot if he doesnt take too much damage in rd 1. Thats why Id say Kham rds 1-2 or Usman ml or livebet. Being as aggressive as Kham has its downside. Its that gastank he needs to look out for.

Normally Id say the narrative and history suggests Kham easy win. But Im not so sure anymore. He isnt the first guy to ruin his career due to surrounding himself with wrong people and making poor choices regarding his training. Its too early to know for sure but I wouldnt be surprised either way.

Completely agree... I'm not comfortable with the bets. I do think Usman has the chance, but for me it's just too many red flags on the Usman side.
I would feel a lot better if Khamzat had stayed in Sweden with Andreas Michael.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Islam KO/TKO is +700 while sub is +210 (dec is +220)



Makes no sense. If you played Islam sub based off Ortega fight that makes sense.... But fight showed Islam had little ability to sub Volk even in dominant positions. Meanwhile Islam hurt Volk on the feet multiple times. Yair also cracked Volk bad at one point in his last fight. He is vulnerable to be countered.

Club and sub is only way I see Islam getting a sub.... Which might happen but KO/TKO is way too wide IMO. GNP TKO is prob even a better bet than subbing Volk for Islam. Islam wont have weightcutting or rehydration issues in Abu Dhabi like he did in Australia and size advantage will be more pronounced. Volk has Craig in his corner and in general his sub defense and ability to get out of bad positions or stall is great.

Islam KO/TKO is +500 now. I could see it shortening more post weigh in too maybe down to +400/+375. +700 was value af safe to say I beat market for that prop.

 

[mkess101]

what makes u say that? I get Usman is hurt in every fight, his recovery is decent though. If Khamza was going to run through anyone it really should have been a chinny Burns

Burns chin issues a little overrated imo (not a great chin but not as bad as some claim) but aside from that, Burns is elite off his back. Khamzat tends to ruin guys when he gets on top of them, but Glibert is in that tiny class of guys where Khamzat actually had something to worry about from top position. So much of Khamzat's game is just overwhelming dudes when he gets on top of them, that part was limited to a degree. Usman presents no such issues. Age, bad knees, size all working against him so if Khamzat doesn't finish him standing I think he'll have no issues putting Usman on his back and going Donkey Kong into either a gnp finish or opening up a sub.
I also think with Khamzat recently changing where he fights out to the UAE, he's gonna want extra badly to put on a show. And I think if he hurts Usman at all, could also be a case of a ref having a bit more of an itchy trigger finger to stop it.
Realizing obviously that level of competition changes, Khamzat's only fight to go past 2 rounds out of his 12 pro and 3 ammy fights is the Burns fight. 1 out of 15.
I'm playing essentially under 2 rounds on the daily fantasy sites. So on the off chance Usman found a random fluke KO I'd be covered too. But I think Khamzat probably runs through him.
I've been wrong before, but my lean is strong on this one.

 

[IPFreely]

Shara looks like a point fighter relying on kicks. Doesn't seem to like exchanges. He's faster than Bruno but I don't really like his head movement to punches and I think Bruno can be dangerous with his long range straight punches here. Bruno has waded into variance on several occasions so if he starts going for it anything could happen. Shara could have stamina, chin or grappling problems and I don't really see much head movement. Not to mention only having one eye. I took a dog shot on Bruno. Shara is fighitng like a gtd/overs fighter. Bruno has never been KO'd although he's been dropped. I definitely wouldn't feel confident on Shara. I don't think the current price is correct but it's hard to line. I'll probably stab Shara decision also. Small bets just for having an interest.

Dudakova is mispriced. She isn't even good on top at all and ends up on bottom sometimes. Frey is a disappointment but shes game and has experience. Shes the better striker and I'm not even sure shes the worst grappler in the match. I took a unit on her. Crazy price on Dudakova and I hope the parlay boys get busted on this fight.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

Shara looks like a point fighter relying on kicks. Doesn't seem to like exchanges. He's faster than Bruno but I don't really like his head movement to punches and I think Bruno can be dangerous with his long range straight punches here. Bruno has waded into variance on several occasions so if he starts going for it anything could happen. Shara could have stamina, chin or grappling problems and I don't really see much head movement. Not to mention only having one eye. I took a dog shot on Bruno. Shara is fighitng like a gtd/overs fighter. Bruno has never been KO'd although he's been dropped. I definitely wouldn't feel confident on Shara. I don't think the current price is correct but it's hard to line. I'll probably stab Shara decision also. Small bets just for having an interest.

I don't know if I'd call him a point fighter but from what I've seen he gives his opponents a lot of respect and is happy to pick them apart from the outside instead of taking unnecessary risks. The guys I saw him fights had good record but were kinds just punching bags. Hard to say if that's cause they were punching bags or because Sharas Striking is so good he made them look like punching bags. Either way I don't think Bruno will just let Shara pick him apart I think eventually he'll try to corner Shara and go after him, when he does that I could see him getting caught, he's been getting hurt on the feet last couple of fights. I'm gonna sprinkle Shara round 2 and round 3 KO/TKO.

Dudakova is mispriced. She isn't even good on top at all and ends up on bottom sometimes. Frey is a disappointment but shes game and has experience. Shes the better striker and I'm not even sure shes the worst grappler in the match. I took a unit on her. Crazy price on Dudakova and I hope the parlay boys get busted on this fight.

Dudakova is way overpriced. I assumed she was good after seeing the line. She looked pretty green in her contenders series fight. She's young and big so she'll probably just bully and push Frey against the cage to win a decision but you're right Frey is at least a lot more experienced. I could see it being a parlay buster.

 

[IPFreely]

Wood gets hit but I think he should be landing his leg kicks and has a decent speed advantage. Naimov will be moving laterally and Wood on the front foot. Naimov is going to get outvolumed, especially with the annoying kicks Wood does. Maybe he can get there with a body kick or something but I think Wood should own him. Wood isn't the kind of guy pushing for finishes but I notice Naimov gave his back to get up and seems to slow down after the second round and the way he should be getting outclassed I could see a finish for Wood. 140 is probably the ideal division for Wood so he is a bit out sized at 145. Naimov winning a decision would shock me. Wood locked up the body triangle from bottom vs Fili in round 2 which you never like to see but maybe he was recovering from almost being KO'd. I wouldn't think Naimov has a grappling path. It comes down to Naimov catching Wood with something which many people have done so it's not totally out of the question. I would hope for something like that to happen so I could then back Wood live at a good number but as it stands I don't think I'm playing anything despite Wood ITD standing out to me. I just hate the way he hangs out on top doing nothing and can't pass. Plus he shows no urgency to get finishes but he has been matched against tough guys in his recent run. So I'm betting the ITD as a fade on Naimov which is good but I also want my guy to be an aggressive finisher for that type of bet. Naimov also liable to go low volume and into survival mode but after taking 50 leg kicks and also getting tagged to the head a good few times, he might be ready to give up.

 

[TrueBias]

Jesus fucking christ. I've had every Saturday off due to bouncing at another job and this week, I work the real job and that's when these assholes are gonna fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Burns chin issues a little overrated imo (not a great chin but not as bad as some claim) but aside from that, Burns is elite off his back. Khamzat tends to ruin guys when he gets on top of them, but Glibert is in that tiny class of guys where Khamzat actually had something to worry about from top position. So much of Khamzat's game is just overwhelming dudes when he gets on top of them, that part was limited to a degree. Usman presents no such issues. Age, bad knees, size all working against him so if Khamzat doesn't finish him standing I think he'll have no issues putting Usman on his back and going Donkey Kong into either a gnp finish or opening up a sub.
I also think with Khamzat recently changing where he fights out to the UAE, he's gonna want extra badly to put on a show. And I think if he hurts Usman at all, could also be a case of a ref having a bit more of an itchy trigger finger to stop it.
Realizing obviously that level of competition changes, Khamzat's only fight to go past 2 rounds out of his 12 pro and 3 ammy fights is the Burns fight. 1 out of 15.
I'm playing essentially under 2 rounds on the daily fantasy sites. So on the off chance Usman found a random fluke KO I'd be covered too. But I think Khamzat probably runs through him.
I've been wrong before, but my lean is strong on this one.

I don't believe Usman needs a fluke ko to win. Usman could simply out box him or put on a veteran performance or big brother Khamzat with superior experience. It's a 3 round fight, and Usman has a superior jab and cardio. I'd also give him the ring or cage movement advantage. Khamzat displayed poor ring iq when he kept walking into Burn's overhand. Mistakes like that against a better opponent can cost him the fight. I also see Usman having a decent enough chin to survive the onslaught.

I do see a scenario where Khamzat tkoes Usman on the feet against the cage and the ref stepping in. Usman on short notice may very well make him fight dull and get overwhelmed and stopped by the younger hungrier fighter.

 

[mkess101]

I don't believe Usman needs a fluke ko to win. Usman could simply out box him or put on a veteran performance or big brother Khamzat with superior experience. It's a 3 round fight, and Usman has a superior jab and cardio. I'd also give him the ring or cage movement advantage. Khamzat displayed poor ring iq when he kept walking into Burn's overhand. Mistakes like that against a better opponent can cost him the fight. I also see Usman having a decent enough chin to survive the onslaught.

I do see a scenario where Khamzat tkoes Usman on the feet against the cage and the ref stepping in. Usman on short notice may very well make him fight dull and get overwhelmed and stopped by the younger hungrier fighter.

Usman of 3-4 years ago, absolutely. The one we just saw vs Edwards...don't see it. Maybe he turns back the clock, I doubt it. And I definitely don't see a "big brother" scenario. Usman will be smaller and weaker, he's moving up because there was nowhere left to go at 170. Khamzat is at MW because he's just too big for WW. In fact, not having to kill himself to make 170 may well help his cardio. That said, if cardio comes into play all my action is dead anyway most likely since I have it ending inside 2 rounds.
Usman's chin has been solid during his career, but having his head almost kicked off his shoulders fight before last isn't gonna make him more durable. Doesn't mean he's glass jawed now, I just don't see him being super durable up a weight class against a guy who has destroyed guys with strikes already up there.

I think it will also be tough for Usman to outbox him for 10 minutes without getting tagged and hurt. Khamzat isn't the most technical guy defensively, but his offensive onslaught is impressive.

It's not that I think Usman **can't** win. I think if he does, most likely it's something where Khamzat is over aggressive and Usman lands a bomb that shocks everyone. I think far more likely is Khamzat either blitzes him standing and destroys him, or takes him down and smashes him until the ref stops it or Usman gives up a bad position and gets subbed. Either way, I have a pretty high confidence level this ends inside 2 rounds. Nothing guaranteed ever of course, but this is where I've planted my flag on this fight LOL.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Think Im on Breeden +225 after taping these 2.... Didnt think Id have any action here

How does Jubli cover -300? Hernandez and McKinney rekt Breeden in a minute but theyre 2 of the most athletic and explosive fighters in the division known for 1st round finishes and both have finished much better fighters than both Breeden and Jubli.

Jubli isnt explosive at all.... His fast twitch is non existent and hes like a Makdessi level athlete lol. He was the underdog in his last 2 fights against nobodies from Road to UFC.... Now hes a 3 to 1 favorite?

I think best case for Jubli it looks like the Levy fight an ugly win but Breeden probably won a round in that one and I dunno how much better Jubli is than Levy if at all. From his tape he doesnt look like a legit finisher to me which he has to be to come close to covering. Jubli also doesnt check leg kicks at all and is one of the only things Breeden is somewhat consistent or decent at.

 

[PuertoRican]

Everyone made weight except for Breeden and Dudakova:

Anshul Jubli (155.5) vs. Mike Breeden (159.5)

Viktoriia Dudakova (116.6) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (116)