I ended up watching all three of Javids UFC fights and all three of Henrys yesterday…. Took all evening with no finishes
The line cannot be right with Victor being +425.
Javid is good, really good, but he is not that good. No way.
Javid has crazy good defensive wrestling and ability to always end up on top. He is also very heavy from top position. I think this is his strongest game to be honest. His striking is good, but not great. He wants to keep it slow with him dictating the pace where he can jump in for a quick jab or throw a hard kick.
He has good stand-up, but when he gets pressured I feel like the technique is not always there. Look at round 1 vs Mendonca. Mendonca came hard with striking and grappling and at times Javid looked a bit sloppy and out of balance. Now don’t get me wrong, he has really good stand-up, but I feel like at least I had overrated it a bit.
Henry fights the same in all of his three fights and although he has had mixed results, I feel like his performance actually has been pretty consistent. Even when he lost to Assuncao and beat Barcelos I think he was pretty consistent in both fights. It was more the difference in opponent that made the result so different. I have heard a few times that “if you get the version of Henry that fought Barcelos this will happen, but if you get the Henry that fought Assuncao this will happen”. After watching all his fights again, I don’t really buy that narrative. Barcelos was willing to stay in the pocket and swing it out, while Assuncao just went for counters and takedowns. The Barcelos style of fighting suits Henry much better that was the difference imo. I would say Gravely falls somewhere in between Barcelos and Assuncao on the spectra of swinging in the pocket vs sit back and counter.
So how does this fit with the matchup against Javid? Well, I do think he has all the tools to implement the same game plan as Assuncao. Sit back and let Henry come to him and then counter and shot for takedowns. I think this style of fighting suits Javid very well. Therefore, I do lean Javid in this fight.
But, I will say this. If Henry can stuff the takedowns, I think this fight will be very close on the feet. Javid does get hit on the feet, he is a bit low volume and when pressured he doesn’t have the cleanest technique… I know a lot of people wont agree with me on this, but this is my read at least.
The line is in my view way off, there is no way I’m betting Javid at these odds and I would caution anyone who is thinking of parleying Javid.
I ended up making a small bet of 0.25U @+425 on Henry. Mostly because I wanted to follow through on my read when I spent so long time watching tape. For anyone who doesn't like the money line, I also think the point spread on Henry @+195 is solid bet.
TLDR: I think line is too wide. I think it will be close on the feet and if Henry can stuff takedowns he could win with volume.
