Burns chin issues a little overrated imo (not a great chin but not as bad as some claim) but aside from that, Burns is elite off his back. Khamzat tends to ruin guys when he gets on top of them, but Glibert is in that tiny class of guys where Khamzat actually had something to worry about from top position. So much of Khamzat's game is just overwhelming dudes when he gets on top of them, that part was limited to a degree. Usman presents no such issues. Age, bad knees, size all working against him so if Khamzat doesn't finish him standing I think he'll have no issues putting Usman on his back and going Donkey Kong into either a gnp finish or opening up a sub.
I also think with Khamzat recently changing where he fights out to the UAE, he's gonna want extra badly to put on a show. And I think if he hurts Usman at all, could also be a case of a ref having a bit more of an itchy trigger finger to stop it.
Realizing obviously that level of competition changes, Khamzat's only fight to go past 2 rounds out of his 12 pro and 3 ammy fights is the Burns fight. 1 out of 15.
I'm playing essentially under 2 rounds on the daily fantasy sites. So on the off chance Usman found a random fluke KO I'd be covered too. But I think Khamzat probably runs through him.
I've been wrong before, but my lean is strong on this one.