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Rewatched Leites vs Jotko; Leites did land some decent TDDs in rd 1 and early rd 2, but with Jotko's grappling being quite decent he was able to reverse Leites in some positions and ended up on top, especially in rd where Leites began to gas and couldn't get Jotko off him. I don't think this will be the case vs Alvey, I reckon Leites will be able to get Alvey down at some point and I don't think he has the skills to get back up. Once Leites lands a TDD and is on top for a little while Alvey will slow down severely. I think Leites could finish this in late rd 2 or 3. Hoping the odds are fairly tight.
Also FWIW Jotko is a young, hungry, up and comer approaching his prime, I think he will be top 5 within the next year or so. Compare that to Alvey, even though he's only 30 he's lacks serious athleticism and has shown he's a one dimensional fighter who looks to defend TDD's and bang.
Also add to that, that Leites had an awful cut. He looked way of in that fight, compared to his pace against Bisping.