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Prettymuch. Peak Rory -1000, gets off the bus Rory -500, Jose 'Rory MacDonald' Aldo pick 'em.
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Bellator 222 MacDonald vs Gracie
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If Rory could handle Demian Maia, Gracie should be cake, no?
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Got:
1.5u Machida @-200 + Dillon Danis @-400
1.2u Bandejas @-125
I think this will be a fun event, good luck to everybody.
1.5u Machida @-200 + Dillon Danis @-400
1.2u Bandejas @-125
I think this will be a fun event, good luck to everybody.
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Not a bad fighter, but if he cant find takedowns here he will likely get pieced up on the feet.
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This forum always confuses me. People will dismiss fights from 2-3 years ago when a fighter is still pretty much the same fighter, yet they'll reference a fight from 5 years ago when it is very clear the fighter is not the same guy. I think it's pretty safe to say the Rory that fought Maia is not around anymore. I know Mousasi was up a weight class, but many fighters have jumped a weight class and not looked like that. It was very apparent in that fight that Rory has declined or really wasn't prepared. It was enough for me to think people playing Rory over Fitch in the mid to upper -300s were nuts. It showed in that fight that he's definitely not the same guy. You then have the post fight comments that did not look good.
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Ok, with the recent line movement I'm on Horiguchi.
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Does this mean you're not playing Rory, or you are playing Gracie?
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I'm on Gracie at +150.
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Does humphries have any value at +925? Dannis has one pro mma fight, and has name value/hype pushing the odds.
Sage Northcutt was the last one that felt like this. Or Aaron Picograms last fight(tempted to bet against him again depending on the odds).
Sage Northcutt was the last one that felt like this. Or Aaron Picograms last fight(tempted to bet against him again depending on the odds).
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I wanted to put money on him, with the same logic, but then I washed tape and i was like "Fuck this dude sucks, big time" so, not.
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Do you think Gracie beats the version of Rory that fought Fitch? I personally think its hard to take a ton away from that fight. Fitch is a founder of the grind and is roided to the gills. He still took a ton of damage from Rory, including multiple flush headkicks that would finish most. Gracie has shown no such chain wrestling or tenacious pursuit of takedowns. I understand fading Rory based on his interview comments, but I stand by my claim that his mind will have to already be kneeling on the pew in church on Sunday for him to allow Gracie to not only get this to the ground, but do it in 3 of 5 rounds or sub him.
Despite the huge size difference and my early bets on Caldwell, I allowed myself to be talked into switching to Horiguchi at +150. I lost on Caldwell in their Rizin bout, I don't want to do it twice. He told Danny Segura that he prefers fighting in the cage and he is so skilled. Five rounds is a long time, so even if he gets wrestle-fucked and loses the first two rounds I think he can win the late rounds or even stop Caldwell late. Now I have an effective net price of +163 on Horiguchi after resolving wagers on both sides and that is too good to resist.
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I do think Gracie would have beat that form of Rory. Let's not act as though Fitch being a grinder and roided to the gills wasn't well known before the fight. There were still people betting Rory way up into the -300s and even into the -400s. Quite frankly, I think people are overestimating Rory at this point in his career. On the flip side with Gracie, people just underestimated him big time. I had him at above +300 against Ruth and he even looked solid before the sub.
I'm not totally disrespecting Rory here. If he was totally shot, I'd cap Gracie even higher. I realize it's very possible he may have something left in him still. But with this going 5 rounds, I think there is a high possibility for Rory to fold here.
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I 100% agree with you that the Rory line against Fitch and Gracie line vs Ruth were outrageous, but that had everything to do with style matchups for me. I honestly didn't think Rory looked that bad against Fitch, obviously a bit more tenative at times than he would have been in his hayday, and showed a dissapointing lack of urgency when on the mat, but still showed more than enough striking acumen to have a field day against Gracie anytime this fight is standing and in general always stuffed the initial takedown. Fitch was just relentless with his pursuit of the takedown and chained nicely. I do agree back in the day Rory wouldn't have accepted those positions as easily, however.
If I recall from previous Bellator cards, I think the limits might go up to $1,000 or $2,000 at least if not the $5,000 you can expect on UFC moneylines. You can re-bet immediately when the line adjusts however in the meantime.
