Elections Biden Surges to 14-Point Lead Over Trump After First Debate

[Jack V Savage]

Better to look at aggregates than highlight outliers. 538 average is an 8-point lead for Biden, which is still a blowout these days.

 

[Hollywood Jack]

Wow more polls and stats!

Polls can be unreliable (though still within the margin of error), but you're a fool for dismissing the actual stats from the election and how they divulge greatly from the polls this time and the polls from last time too were pretty accurate for that election. Trump was running against the most hated nominee of all time. He's not this time. And Biden's biggest fan base is seniors and voters over 50 who hated Trump and they also make up the biggest block of the electorate.

 

[HOLA]

Is this poll pre diagnosis?

Cause Trump fan boys are now clinging to the idea an abusive sociopath who has spent the last 6 years spewing toxic venom at everything that moves will garner enough sympathy to turn around the election.

Bottom line is Trump, best case scenario, will have spent days in the hospital getting himself pumped with various drugs to fight off a disease he constantly downplayed for political expediency, as thousands died. Sympathy isn't what it results in. Lots of cognitive dissonance though, as MAGA Hatters struggle to justify their Dear Leader being hospitalized over the "Democrat Hoax."

 

[Hollywood Jack]

Better to look at aggregates than highlight outliers. 538 average is an 8-point lead for Biden, which is still a blowout these days.

Fair enough. I have 538 bookmarked on my phone, but I'm on my desktop now and this was the best source I found when I Googled about Biden's lead.

 

[Overtures]

If Trump loses another sherdog poll like this he might as well drop out.

 

[terrapin]

He's a crybully.

I can't imagine how unbearable he is in private if that is how he acts on stage in public view.

now just realize that a large percentage of his base saw his performance as a show of strength......... being tough..... on the offensive.....


these people are less evolved emotionally and psychologically than the rest of the country.

 

[blaseblah]

That may have been one of the worst Trump performances I've ever seen. I think only the most diehard supporters could defend how he acted like. No one likes people acting like that and even if you don't like Biden, it was so obnoxious that it may sway you in his direction just to not have that kind of personality in charge.

When Trump was calm and actually answered questions, he actually had several good moments. The constant childish interrupting negated any valid points he had.

Yeah I think it was a bad look for the undecided, moderate voters. Also the narrative going in was that Biden was in terrible shape and would get slaughtered but he showed up and appeared coherent, even though he didn't perform all that well.

 

[Hollywood Jack]

now just realize that a large percentage of his base saw his performance as a show of strength......... being tough..... on the offensive.....


these people are less evolved emotionally and psychologically than the rest of the country.

Absolutely. His base will be there for him. But that's not what swings elections. Trump hyped up his base but lost everyone else that wasn't already in the tank for either him or Biden. Therefore it was a victory for Biden and why Biden and his team wanted to do another debate, at least before Trump tested positive.

 

[terrapin]

Absolutely. His base will be there for him. But that's not what swings elections. Trump hyped up his base but lost everyone else that wasn't already in the tank for either him or Biden. Therefore it was a victory for Biden and why Biden and his team wanted to do another debate, at least before Trump tested positive.

agree completely with this. my point is more sociologically and psychologically oriented. it is curious to me that a certain % of people are that far behind the rest of the country.

 

[Renard]

Trump seemed like a cornered animal. Desperate, and snapping at everyone and everything near him.

I wonder if the virus had an impact on his performance. The median incubation period is 5 days and he was diagnosed formally late night October 1st. He was almost certainly already infected at the debate, but his viral load was too low to be detected on the PCR yet.

 

[laz0001]

Don’t believe the polls at all. The got the uk election wrong, uk Brexit wrong, 2016 us election wrong.

Though I dislike him hugely, trump will smash.

 

[HARRISON_3]

If Trump loses another sherdog poll like this he might as well drop out.

Lol

 

[Hollywood Jack]

Better to look at aggregates than highlight outliers. 538 average is an 8-point lead for Biden, which is still a blowout these days.

Here's those figures for whoever is interested...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

 

[Hollywood Jack]

Don’t believe the polls at all. The got the uk election wrong, uk Brexit wrong, 2016 us election wrong.

Though I dislike him hugely, trump will smash.

The key difference is that those results were still within the margin of error. Trump winning in 2020 would not be. It would be a historically unprecedented outperforming of the polls. HIGHLY unlikely. I would only start entertaining it as likely if Trump narrows the lead in polls closer to the election to within the margin of error. In that case, then there would be parallels with Hillary's polling lead over Trump in 2016. But there's just not now. Hillary didn't have this big a lead, this late in the campaign.

 

[BFoe]

I wonder if the virus had an impact on his performance. The median incubation period is 5 days and he was diagnosed formally late night October 1st. He was almost certainly already infected at the debate, but his viral load was too low to be detected on the PCR yet.

Yeah it’s hard to say. He may not have been feeling well already. It seems like Trump went in with the plan to interrupt Biden frequently, but who knows how Trump was feeling physically and if it had an effect.

 

[burningspear]

Thank God, if Trump got re-elected, it would be a pathetic look for the US.

 

[Oceanmachine]

That may have been one of the worst Trump performances I've ever seen. I think only the most diehard supporters could defend how he acted like. No one likes people acting like that and even if you don't like Biden, it was so obnoxious that it may sway you in his direction just to not have that kind of personality in charge.

When Trump was calm and actually answered questions, he actually had several good moments. The constant childish interrupting negated any valid points he had.

Only high inhibition people dont like what he did which is interrupt and dominate. It takes intellectualism´ to be offended and respect for debate. The masses of humanity and the voting American public have no care for such decorum.

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s national lead against President Donald Trump jumped to a nearly two-to-one margin after Sept. 29’s chaotic presidential debate, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1, two days after the disorderly and caustic debate. The poll was completed just before the announcement that Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus and hospitalized at Walter Reed Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland.

Biden now holds a 14-percentage-point lead against the president, with 53% of registered voters backing the Democratic nominee and 39% supporting Trump. The poll shows a 6-point jump for Biden from a Sept. 20 NBC/WSJ poll. Biden's biggest lead in the poll previously was in July at 11 points.

The biggest declines for Trump were among seniors and suburban women, who are now backing Biden 62%-35% and 58%-33%, respectively.

Forty-nine percent of voters say Biden did a better job at Tuesday’s debate compared to 24% who said Trump performed better. Seventeen percent didn't think either candidate did better than the other.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...lead-over-trump-after-debate-poll/3616228001/

While many people see parallels between Hillary's lead over Trump in 2016 and Biden's lead in 2020, there are key differences. Hillary wasn't up this big, this late. She didn't peak this late like Biden is (and this may not be Biden's peak, just his biggest lead so far). Trump was within the margin of error when he beat Hillary. He's not within the margin of error against Biden and isn't trending well. He won't be able to campaign for the next 10-14 days, and his style of campaigning is frowned upon given the current crisis and his own contraction of Corona and the spikes in cases surrounding his campaign rallies, most notably the death of Herman Cain. I don't see Trump coming back from this...

I believe he will win, Increase the Senate to 55 or 56 seats, lose Arizona. But Win the Senate and lose the House narrowly. I think he will do better in the delegate count than in 2016 but lose the popular vote by a slightly larger margin than before. I think voter turnout will be terribly low and it will be a contested election but Republicans will back Trump on going with election night results. And for days it will show Trump ahead, it either goes to Supreme court and they give the nod to Trump given taking the prior stance in 2000 of Bush v Gore and the BS of extra ballots or time. OR the Republicans muster up the support for the delegates and the delegates vote anyways before December 16th or whenever the Delegate voting deadline is in December.

If it goes to January with the House situation thing then Trump losses, but he has the DOJ and Republican state legislatures on his side.

That is my prediction.

 

[PalmaSoriano]

Polls can be unreliable (though still within the margin of error), but you're a fool for dismissing the actual stats from the election and how they divulge greatly from the polls this time and the polls from last time too were pretty accurate for that election. Trump was running against the most hated nominee of all time. He's not this time. And Biden's biggest fan base is seniors and voters over 50 who hated Trump and they also make up the biggest block of the electorate.

Surely this time right Jackie?

Saw this and thought it was perfect for the doormat bros

 

[D3thr0n3d K1ng]

Doesn't matter the electoral college will 'strangely' choose Trump.

 

[Takes_Two_To_Tango]

Trump is done. For him to get Covid after all he said about Covid being a hoax is just a final nail to his coffin. He looks like a fool now than ever before.

Barring a miracle, Biden is the next President.