Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

Hodge23 said:
Fridays Bets:
Juvenile Turf - ???
Juv Fillies Turf - Hydrangea 2Pts E/W @ 6/1
Dirt Mile - Dortmund 5Pts @ 11/10
Distaff - Songbird 5Pts @ Evs

Struggling with the Juv Turf, 3 or 4 i could make cases for, may just back the biggest price runner of them for small stakes before the off.

Also my pick Suedois is out of the Turf Sprint for some reason, another race i need to rethink now. Any ideas guys?
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I'm looking to play the #10 Ambitious Brew (10/1 ML) in the Turf Sprint myself. Should be pretty nice odds. Also looks to have exactly the type of running style which has won this race the 4 of 5 times this race has been run over the Santa Anita. Him drawing towards the outside is a big plus. He also has experience running over this quirky configuration having ran this track 3 times, winning 2.



Sprint races are also the only races where North American based horses have an advantage over the Euros on the turf, and from what I understand, it's a pretty decided advantage at that. Might be in your best interest to look at the race that way.
 
Another factor that could come into play with that Turf Sprint is a jockey's familiarity with it since it is so unique. Experience over it has got to be a plus, and the jockeys coming over from Europe would have very limited if any experience on it.
 
The speed of the speed on a speed favouring track and your winner of the BC Juvenile is looking like his last effort took nothing out of him at all in his latest workout;

 
I've read a couple of people say that they think the the Juvenile may feature a pace meltdown. Hmm, I guess that's not out of the realm of possibility considering how immature these runners are still. But my question to them is who the hell is going to run with Syndergaard in the early going to produce that pace collapse? Who's even capable of doing it? Better yet, who would want to throw any chance they had out the door even if they were capable and be willing to do it? The answer to all three of those questions is likely nobody.

Theory, who looks like he could be sitting 2nd in the early goings, is running 45 1/2 second half miles in 6F sprint races coming in. Syndergaard is running 44 1/5 in sprints and 44 3/5 in his one route race. Theory isn't hooking up with him early. Three Rules could be up there too, but he's running 45 second half miles in sprints sitting 2nd and 48 seconds in routes when leading. Gormley is 45 4/5 in sprints and 47 in routes when leading. Plus, both Three Rules and Gormley were running those times on faster tracks than Syndergaard's 44 3/5ths at Belmont. Don't see them staying right there with him either. The rest of them have shown to prefer to sit further back.

The speed of the speed on a speed favouring track. The rest of these 2 year-olds better like the look of Syndergaard's big ole bum because they're going to be having a good long look at it all race. From the beginning right to the end. I'm leaning towards making him my biggest play this weekend.
 
Thanks @Sharkey and @Hodge23 for all the info and picks. I been so busy I haven't had a chance to look into any of these races. Tailing the following relatively small:

0.5u Songbird
0.5u Dortmund
0.25u Dortmund/Tamarkuz Exacta
0.25u Hydrangea
0.25u Oscar Performance

Best of luck gentlemen!
 
t6p said:
Thanks @Sharkey and @Hodge23 for all the info and picks. I been so busy I haven't had a chance to look into any of these races. Tailing the following relatively small:

0.5u Songbird
0.5u Dortmund
0.25u Dortmund/Tamarkuz Exacta
0.25u Hydrangea
0.25u Oscar Performance

Best of luck gentlemen!
Click to expand...

Best of luck, T. Let's do this!
 
Race 1 at Santa Anita in the books.

They ran 44.12 seconds to the half in a 7F optional claimer on the dirt and the horses who were 2nd & 1st at that point in the race ended up finishing 1st & 2nd well ahead of the rest. Yet another fast Santa Anita track that is carrying speed.
 


Brad is a west coast correspondant/handicapper for DRF and basically sees all the races out there at the track.
 
Decided upon Lancaster Bomber in the end in the Juvenile Turf. He has the best single piece of form in the race from last time out, finishing ahead of 2 subsequent G1 winners (Rivet, Thunder Snow) and was just over a length behind Churchill, the leading 2yo Colt in Europe and 2017 2000 Guineas Favourite. He was a 66/1 pacemaker for Churchill that day so the form does come with an * , however his form wasn't terrible beforehand, finishing in and around good horses and its possible he has just made rapid improvement over the past few months. A negative would be the stall (1) and if he doesn't get out quickly his race could be over in the first 100yards; also Ryan Moore prefers Intelligence Cross. If he gets out well though and grabs the lead he could be hard to peg back. 4 places being payed out with one bookmaker so thats some good insurance.

1Pt E/W Lancaster Bomber @ 8/1 (4 Places)
 
A 6.5F optional claimer on the turf is up next in a few minutes. Not sure if my eyes are going to be able to see anything beyond just seeing where the winner comes from and how he does so.
 
The #3 horse won that 6.5F turf race in front running style as the odds-on 4/5 favourite after setting a sub 43 second half mile.
 
I'm setting the over/under on the amount of Breeders Cup race records we see this weekend at 5.5. Oh boy.
 
The Marathon is up next at 14F on dirt. Was a part of the Breeders Cup series up until quite recently. I'm predicting it's ran in a sub 2:55.
 
The #1, #8, and #9 in the Marathon were sitting 3rd, 1st and 2nd at the half in a fairly quick 49 seconds for this distance, and ended up finishing 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

 
If the first two races on the dirt are any indication, all I can say is the best of luck if you're trying to beat either Dortmund or Songbird today. Me thinks you'll need it.
 
One more race on the turf (7F) before I have to head out the door and gets some bets in. I'm expecting Jazzy Times to take them the whole way, gate to wire fashion.
 
NBC Sports Network at 430 got it. Goodluck guys tailing the plays.
 
Ha. Now we got the trainers talking about the track being a merry go round.
 
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