- Joined
- Sep 4, 2004
- Messages
- 15,887
- Reaction score
- 1,183
Honestly Shark, based on all the info/videos you've been posting it's hard not to really like Hence. I'm kind of regretting not putting at least a full unit down on him to win when he was at +2500.
As for other horses, I'm interested in seeing the numbers on Sonneteer when they become available and hearing your final thoughts. I'll most certainly be playing some combination of the 4 horses you've narrowed it down to in exactas, tris, maybe even a super. I'm pumped for Saturday, that's for sure.
And Hence drew great too with a lot of early speed to his inside. The connections of Fast and Accurate have already said that they'll be gunning for the lead and the inside draw forces their hand. Always Dreaming is going to be up close regardless if he relaxes by race day or not. If he doesn't relax he may be a runoff and cause a speed battle since he's surrounding by speed types to his inside and outside. State of Honor is going to show early speed. Thunder Snow likes to sit pretty close early, and the post almost forces his hand. Untrapped might go too. Based on what I'm seeing, Hence is going to have a lot of room to move over and get whatever position he wants. He should be no worse than the 2 path around the 1st turn. If the early pace is only average then he has enough tactical speed to sit just behind the leaders in a nice stalking position. And if it's faster then he could sit back a little more, save ground the whole way, and then make a strong late run. He's in a great spot. Of course, after saying all that, and anything else I said about him in this thread, I'm really expecteding about a 12th place finish from him. Ugh.
I put a request into TDN for Sonneteer's thorograph sheet to be uploaded by them, so hopefully they can get that done. If not I should be able to come up with a pretty accurate estimate after watching some videos and comparing him to what the sheets of some of the horses he's ran against have. I could probably get within a 1/4 point or so either way. My quick guess without watching the races again is that he got around a 5 for the Rebel and 3 for the Ark Derby. In that range. But hopefully TDN adds it and eliminates any guess work. It should very well be a positive looking pattern, though.
State of Honor is a horse that keeps nagging at me. I start out thinking I'm going to play him, and then I eventually lean against that. Then after I made the decision yesterday to play against Classic Empire, and then after Practical Joke drew a post that isn't exactly ideal (I'll still use, though, just not s much), State of Honor of has been creeping back into the thought process for me. I have a hard time seeing the circumstances that see him to the winner's circle, but can certainly see them for him to hang around and grab and piece of it in 3rd or 4th at the end. He's always been the honest, hard trying sort who always runs his race, and judging by the way he's lokked out there in the mornings I don't see any reason why that won't be the case once again on Saturday. Plus he's ran good for me the couple of times I've bet him and he profiles well enough compared to most of these horses. The distance is a question with him, but you can say the same thing about 75% of this field, so why can't he be one of the ones who stick around til the end to round out a trifecta or super. I think I'm going to find myself using him like that by the time I make my bets afterall.