Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Honestly Shark, based on all the info/videos you've been posting it's hard not to really like Hence. I'm kind of regretting not putting at least a full unit down on him to win when he was at +2500.

As for other horses, I'm interested in seeing the numbers on Sonneteer when they become available and hearing your final thoughts. I'll most certainly be playing some combination of the 4 horses you've narrowed it down to in exactas, tris, maybe even a super. I'm pumped for Saturday, that's for sure.

And Hence drew great too with a lot of early speed to his inside. The connections of Fast and Accurate have already said that they'll be gunning for the lead and the inside draw forces their hand. Always Dreaming is going to be up close regardless if he relaxes by race day or not. If he doesn't relax he may be a runoff and cause a speed battle since he's surrounding by speed types to his inside and outside. State of Honor is going to show early speed. Thunder Snow likes to sit pretty close early, and the post almost forces his hand. Untrapped might go too. Based on what I'm seeing, Hence is going to have a lot of room to move over and get whatever position he wants. He should be no worse than the 2 path around the 1st turn. If the early pace is only average then he has enough tactical speed to sit just behind the leaders in a nice stalking position. And if it's faster then he could sit back a little more, save ground the whole way, and then make a strong late run. He's in a great spot. Of course, after saying all that, and anything else I said about him in this thread, I'm really expecteding about a 12th place finish from him. Ugh.

I put a request into TDN for Sonneteer's thorograph sheet to be uploaded by them, so hopefully they can get that done. If not I should be able to come up with a pretty accurate estimate after watching some videos and comparing him to what the sheets of some of the horses he's ran against have. I could probably get within a 1/4 point or so either way. My quick guess without watching the races again is that he got around a 5 for the Rebel and 3 for the Ark Derby. In that range. But hopefully TDN adds it and eliminates any guess work. It should very well be a positive looking pattern, though.

State of Honor is a horse that keeps nagging at me. I start out thinking I'm going to play him, and then I eventually lean against that. Then after I made the decision yesterday to play against Classic Empire, and then after Practical Joke drew a post that isn't exactly ideal (I'll still use, though, just not s much), State of Honor of has been creeping back into the thought process for me. I have a hard time seeing the circumstances that see him to the winner's circle, but can certainly see them for him to hang around and grab and piece of it in 3rd or 4th at the end. He's always been the honest, hard trying sort who always runs his race, and judging by the way he's lokked out there in the mornings I don't see any reason why that won't be the case once again on Saturday. Plus he's ran good for me the couple of times I've bet him and he profiles well enough compared to most of these horses. The distance is a question with him, but you can say the same thing about 75% of this field, so why can't he be one of the ones who stick around til the end to round out a trifecta or super. I think I'm going to find myself using him like that by the time I make my bets afterall.

 

[Sharkey]

Oh, and @t6p, hopefully you end up having a little more coverage than I do when it comes to the exotics since I'm going to have a very narrow opinion when it comes to exactas, tris and then a couple of $1 supers. After ousting Classic Empire yesterday I'm pretty sure I'll be playing those tickets with Hence having to win for me to have any chance. Something like this as of today;

Hence / Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer / Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer, Practical Joke, State of Honor (maybe)

I'll probably only focus about 25% to 30% of my budget on exactas and tris, and then use the rest on a win bet, maybe a place bet and maybe a couple of show bets. Basically that's my thoughts this year. Try to spend a little to win a huge amount, and then focus on not trying to lose with some individual bets.

 

[t6p]

Oh, and @t6p, hopefully you end up having a little more coverage than I do when it comes to the exotics since I'm going to have a very narrow opinion when it comes to exactas, tris and then a couple of $1 supers. After ousting Classic Empire yesterday I'm pretty sure I'll be playing those tickets with Hence having to win for me to have any chance. Something like this as of today;

Hence / Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer / Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer, Practical Joke, State of Honor (maybe)

I'll probably only focus about 25% to 30% of my budget on exactas and tris, and then use the rest on a win bet, maybe a place bet and maybe a couple of show bets. Basically that's my thoughts this year. Try to spend a little to win a huge amount, and then focus on not trying to lose with some individual bets.

No worries my friend. I haven't made up my mind on anything yet (other than Hence to win obviously), but I definitely like the sound of what you're thinking with your approach to the race. With the questions surrounding the favorite this year, it seems like a good time to go for a serious payday with some of these horses who are profiling well at longer odds. I'm really intrigued to see what you come up for your final plays.

 

[Sharkey]

Black silks? Check. Adaptable running style? Check. Prepped in the Sunland Derby? Check. Drew the #8 post? Check. On a sloppy track? Forecast says it's entirely possible.

Hence blows by them all to win by 6 3/4 lengths. It just might be fate.

 

[Sharkey]

No worries my friend. I haven't made up my mind on anything yet (other than Hence to win obviously), but I definitely like the sound of what you're thinking with your approach to the race. With the questions surrounding the favorite this year, it seems like a good time to go for a serious payday with some of these horses who are profiling well at longer odds. I'm really intrigued to see what you come up for your final plays.

Yeah, there's no Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, Orb, or I'll Have Another going into this race, so I wouldn't put a single penny on any of the favourites as far as a straight win bet goes. Those past five Derby winners all looked solid going in after putting multiple good races together each. This year none of the four who are short prices on the morning line have been able to do so, and also have a bunch of other questions surrounding them as well. This year kind of reminds me of 2011 when we had a bunch of untested horses with huge questions surrounding them, horses with ugly form, horses looking to rebound of an excuse race, etc., and that was won by a 21/1 shot named Animal Kingdom who profiled remarkably similar to a certain horse we're both on this year. This is a year to take a shot against the shorter priced horses, or if you do like them some use them in some exotic plays. If one of the favourites does go on to buck the history of what the data we came up with says and goes on to win, then no big deal. They're only paying 5/1 or 6/1, and you can get that any weekend of the year with horses in much easier spots than a race like the Derby. The Derby is a once a year opportunity to go big, and in the case of this year, it might be a once in every five years opportunity just because all the favourites look so vulnerable. Let's try to take advantage of that and get paid in a big way I say.

 

[t6p]

Yeah, there's no Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome, Orb, or I'll Have Another going into this race, so I wouldn't put a single penny on any of the favourites as far as a straight win bet goes. Those past five Derby winners all looked solid going in after putting multiple good races together each. This year none of the four who are short prices on the morning line have been able to do so, and also have a bunch of other questions surrounding them as well. This year kind of reminds me of 2011 when we had a bunch of untested horses with huge questions surrounding them, horses with ugly form, horses looking to rebound of an excuse race, etc., and that was won by a 21/1 shot named Animal Kingdom who profiled remarkably similar to a certain horse we're both on this year. This is a year to take a shot against the shorter priced horses, or if you do like them some use them in some exotic plays. If one of the favourites does go on to buck the history of what the data we came up with says and goes on to win, then no big deal. They're only paying 5/1 or 6/1, and you can get that any weekend of the year with horses in much easier spots than a race like the Derby. The Derby is a once a year opportunity to go big, and in the case of this year, it might be a once in every five years opportunity just because all the favourites look so vulnerable. Let's try to take advantage of that and get paid in a big way I say.

Couldn't agree more, Shark. Love that mindset! Really getting excited about the possibilities here.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

A little overwhelming in here with the amount of information, Sharkey! Very informative, thanks

0.25u Hence +2000
0.03u Lookin At Lee +3500
0.02u Sonneteer +5000

 

[Sharkey]

A little overwhelming in here with the amount of information, Sharkey! Very informative, thanks

0.25u Hence +2000
0.03u Lookin At Lee +3500
0.02u Sonneteer +5000

Cheers, Jae, and the best of luck to you in the race. And you're right. This stuff can be both overwhelming and confusing, but I'm not sure how to simplify it without using the numbers to illustrate things. What I'm basically trying to illustrate with all this stuff is that people are best to back horses that have shown consistent or improving recent form, have a recent pattern that says that they're going to run their peak effort, and have the late pace, stride length, and the foundation that says they'll be able to handle the circumstances of the Derby when it comes to distance, field size and whatnot. There's exceptions to every rule, of course. But history shows that the majority of horses who run well in the Derby are going to follow most or all of the above going into the race.

 

[MacPherson911]

Looks like Hence is getting some love from the public. Current Derby winner odds on 5dimes for the horses @Sharkey is looking to play:

Hence +1500
Practical Joke +1600
Looking at Lee +2500
Sonneteer +3000

I got Hence at +2058

 

[MacPherson911]

Cheers, Jae, and the best of luck to you in the race. And you're right. This stuff can be both overwhelming and confusing, but I'm not sure how to simplify it without using the numbers to illustrate things. What I'm basically trying to illustrate with all this stuff is that people are best to back horses that have shown consistent or improving recent form, have a recent pattern that says that they're going to run their peak effort, and have the late pace, stride length, and the foundation that says they'll be able to handle the circumstances of the Derby when it comes to distance, field size and whatnot. There's exceptions to every rule, of course. But history shows that the majority of horses who run well in the Derby are going to follow most or all of the above going into the race.

Sharkey you're a fountain of info! I'm learning so much reading your posts here....are you just a big fan or do you work in racing?

 

[Sharkey]

Sharkey you're a fountain of info! I'm learning so much reading your posts here....are you just a big fan or do you work in racing?

I'm just a fan and gambler, Mac.

 

[Sharkey]

Gunnevera has been looking so damn dull and lethargic out there on the track over the past week or so. He's also going into the Derby on a regressive race (8 pt BSF/BRIS drop and an X race on thorograph) in which he had lost weight and in which his jockey said after the race that the horse lacked his usual "punch" when he was asking it for run around the far turn. On paper he looks like a horse that peaked too soon this spring and is now over the top. And the visual impressions he's been giving this week says the same thing. I would doubt very much that he's a horse that is getting set to fire off his best effort.

 

[Sharkey]

I have no interest in looking to play a horse that needs to rebound in the Derby, but iof there's one horse that could buck the trend and run a good race it would be Tapwrit as he's at least shown some life out there on the track this week unlike Gunnevera.

Also;

Always Dreaming (4): 87, 77.5, 99.5 (99) * 9 1/4, 9 1/4, -0 1/2 (X, X, T) * 1st last race * 22.4 feet * 3/1
Irap (5): 79.5, 86, 96.5 (92) * 10, 7 1/2, 0 1/4 (O, P, T) * 1st * 22.1 feet * 6/2

Very similar looking profiles there between those two horse who also have very similar running styles. The top one is 5/1 on the morning line and the bottom one is 20/1. The top one has also been acting like a nutcase each and every morning he's been on the track over the past week and looks like he may have a lot of trouble relaxing over the 10F trip of the Derby. The bottom horse of those two has been nothing but a pro all week in his training, and has looked about as happy and healthy as anybody out there. I don't have much interest in betting either of them myself due to that big new top angle and data I explained a few pages back (amongst a few other things). But if someone wanted to play either of them then why not take the better behaved 20/1 horse over the 5/1 nutcase when their profiles look so similar? Especially considering that Irap will be ridden and trained by a jockey/trainer combination that have won 2 of the past 5 Derbys, and he's a horse that has been campaigned tough right from the beginning of his career, unlike the case with Always Dreaming who's been handled with kid gloves (his acting up this week likely shows why) and is trained by a trainer who has a horrendous Derby record with the horses he has prepped in Florida over the years.

 

[Sharkey]

The post positions and morning line odds for the Derby;

Holy shit is this year's field ever laughable. I'm trying to go over them again just to see if I can find something to like about the horses I didn't plan on using yet, and all I see are big negatives that dissuade me. "Nope, I can't use that horse because of this and this and this". I'm trying. I'm definitely trying. But besides the ones I plan on using already, I'm seeing nothing from any of the other ones that have me interested. I'm done. I have my Derby horse and then some others that I'll use underneath. I don't need to keep digging through this big pile of horse poo anymore looking for something else that I already know isn't there.

 

[pytycrys]

I have never bet before on Horse Racing, but after reading the last 3-4 pages, I decided to tail you with the following bets :
0.2u Hence +2000
0.1u Lookin at Lee +2500
0.1u Practical Joke +1600
0.1u Sonneteer +4000

The whole thread is amazing, you are giving away so much information and are putting so much time into this! This thread should be a role-model for the UFC threads.
Thank you very much, sir and good luck on Saturday! By the way, what time will be the race on this Saturday? Looking forward to watching it

 

[Sharkey]

I have never bet before on Horse Racing, but after reading the last 3-4 pages, I decided to tail you with the following bets :
0.2u Hence +2000
0.1u Lookin at Lee +2500
0.1u Practical Joke +1600
0.1u Sonneteer +4000

The whole thread is amazing, you are giving away so much information and are putting so much time into this! This thread should be a role-model for the UFC threads.
Thank you very much, sir and good luck on Saturday! By the way, what time will be the race on this Saturday? Looking forward to watching it

Cheers for the kind words, P, and best of luck to you as well. I hope your first bet on the ponies ends up a winning one.

Post time is 6:46 EST on Saturday.

 

[t6p]

Some potentially interesting new lines are up on 5dimes for the Derby:

Hence finishes top 3 +500
Lookin at Lee finishes top 3 +520
Sonneteer finishes top 3 +800
Practical Joke finishes top 3 +535

 

[Sharkey]

 

[Sharkey]

At the 18:00 mark of the following video I don't know whether to laugh or cry with the way Gunnevera looked out there this morning. Poor guy. He's barely moving along on the backstrecth and Classic Empire comes up on him on the inside. Gunnevera thought for a second about running after Classic Empire and then quickly backed off. Almost like he was saying "fuck it, I don't feel like running today". That's the way he's looked every morning too. Just so lethargic and disinterested.

Nice little bit of info on Hence from Brandon Staubs at the 30:00 mark too. Brandon covers Churchill Downs as a part of Bruno DeJulio's clocker/workout analyst team, and Bruno is the best in the business in that field. In addition to talking Hence up Brandon also mentions that they'll be giving Hence 4 stars for each one of his last three workouts. It's not just a schmuck like me who is saying that he's been looking great in his training leading up to the Derby. The pros who do that for a living are saying it too. And some of you fuckers were lucky enough to get him north of 20/1. I'm jealous.

 

[gcoogan1]

sky bet are paying 6 places out for the derby so going to tail a few of your picks for the big race