Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Wow, Arrogate came on hard at the end but Collected got it done! Nice call @Sharkey, seems like a lot of late money came in on Collected unfortunately but we get some back at least.

 

[Sharkey]

The Travers has 14 horses listed as 'probable' right now meaning they should get a full field entering the gates on Saturday;

Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, Fayeq, Girvin, Guiseppe the Great, Good Samaritan, Gunnevera, Irap, Lookin At Lee, McCracken, Outplay, Tapwrit, Timeline, and West Coast.

There's probably at least a half dozen in that group that may go off as the betting favourite once the gates open. I have no idea how the public is going to see this race. Shit, the favourite may end up going off at 5/1. It should be a fantastic betting race, though, if we can somehow figure out who is ready to run 2nd out of this inconsistent bunch and round out the exacta. We do already know who the winner is going to be afterall. Right guys?

 

[Sharkey]

Reading on twitter from some DRF guys that both Outplay and Timeline are expected to skip the Travers in favour of the G1 Pennsylvania Derby next month. So be it. 12 it is then unless we have a surprise entry tomorrow. We still have a very deep, well matched field filled with graded stakes winners, though. 9 of the 12 have won graded stakes before with 8 of the 12 having won at least a G2 race. 7 of the 12 are multiple graded stakes winners. The field of 12 have 20 graded stakes wins in total with none of them having more than 3. I guess that's one of the benefits of having an inconsistent bunch. Still a much better field than we had for either the Preakness or the Belmont. According to the Watchmaker Watch at DRF we'll be seeing 8 of the top 10 horses in this 3 year-old crop in this race, with only Classic Empire really being the one who's missing. The 10th ranked horse on that list, Practical Joke, will be racing on that day on the undercard in the King's Bishop. Even if this year's crop has been an inconsistent bunch as a whole, you really can't ask for a much better field than that for this year's Travers. But then again, this race generally always produces deep fields, and as I tried to illustrate with those videos a few pages back, it generally produces some great racing as well.

 

[t6p]

The Travers has 14 horses listed as 'probable' right now meaning they should get a full field entering the gates on Saturday;

Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, Fayeq, Girvin, Guiseppe the Great, Good Samaritan, Gunnevera, Irap, Lookin At Lee, McCracken, Outplay, Tapwrit, Timeline, and West Coast.

There's probably at least a half dozen in that group that may go off as the betting favourite once the gates open. I have no idea how the public is going to see this race. Shit, the favourite may end up going off at 5/1. It should be a fantastic betting race, though, if we can somehow figure out who is ready to run 2nd out of this inconsistent bunch and round out the exacta. We do already know who the winner is going to be afterall. Right guys?

Are we liking Good Samaritan in the Travers, Shark?

 

[Sharkey]

Are we liking Good Samaritan in the Travers, Shark?

I think so, T. Lots to like about that one even if we didn't have some luck with him last time out. He's very likely to be my win bet and key use in exotics as well since he's really the only horse who has shown consistently in this field against top competition. I feel really good about him continuing to run a good race. The issue for me is finding other horses to play with him in the exacta and tri. Gun to my head, without looking at PP's yet, I'd probably go with Tapwrit as a 2nd option just because this race requires a horse to have good stamina because of the 10F distance and how demanding the track tends to be (I also want to go back and give some more focus to stride length here, which both Good Samaritan and Tapwrit have). But I also have a sneaky suspicion that Tapwrit ends up as the favourite, though. The draw is later on today I do believe, so we can start to narrow things down once the PP's come out. This race looks like it's going to be a giant puzzle, but I kinda love that it's that way. Some great payouts to be had if we can somehow land on the right horses.

 

[Sharkey]

There's a lot of great racing on Saturday at Saratoga with 6 race of the G1 variety, but I don't know if there's going to be a whole lot of great price plays in those races. There might be once we see the PP's. But it doesn't seem like it just looking at the probables. I'm going to try to find something to beat Songbird with in the G1 Personal Ensign, although I'm not going to force a bet in that case if nothing is there. I'm also likely to bet American Anthem again in the G1 King's Bishop because that's what I do, but he's not going to be much of a price in that race. He may end up the favourite there depending how people play Practical Joke. If betting anything other than the Travers that day we might have to try to hit and exacta or two to find anything of value. We'll see.

 

[Sharkey]

Post positions and morning line odds for the Travers;

1 - Cloud Computing - 8/1
2 - Guiseppe the Great - 20/1
3 - West Coast - 4/1
4 - Tapwrit - 7/2
5 - Good Samaritan - 5/1
6 - Girvin - 10/1
7 - Always Dreaming - 6/1
8 - Lookin At Lee - 30/1
9 - McCracken - 12/1
10 - Irap - 8/1
11 - Gunnevera - 20/1
12 - Fayeq - 30/1

 

[Sharkey]

Post positions and morning line odds for the Travers;

1 - Cloud Computing - 8/1
2 - Guiseppe the Great - 20/1
3 - West Coast - 4/1
4 - Tapwrit - 7/2
5 - Good Samaritan - 5/1
6 - Girvin - 10/1
7 - Always Dreaming - 6/1
8 - Lookin At Lee - 30/1
9 - McCracken - 12/1
10 - Irap - 8/1
11 - Gunnevera - 20/1
12 - Fayeq - 30/1

I think the morning line maker made a mistake in the amount of separation he has here with these 8 horses that are bolded just because the public is going to find a lot of reasons to bet on any single one of them. I doubt very much that the public allows horses like Girvin and McCracken to go off at 10/1 or higher, as it's tough to see horses like Tapwrit, West Coast or Good Samaritan getting double the backing those other two get nevermind nearly triple. I think we have a real chance to see the favourite go off at 5/1 with a blanket of horses all being in that 5/1 to 10/1 range. There's just too many options in this race for the public to gravitate to.

 

[Sharkey]

Holy shit, this Travers Day card at Saratoga is so ridiculously good, and contrary to what I said earlier, there actually might be some opportunities for plays at decent odds with some of the other G1 races besdies the Travers. Even that G2 race with the girls on the green stuff is a G1 quality race with Lady Eli, Antonoe, and a couple of others entered.

Race 6 is a G1. Race 7 is a G1. Race 8 is a G1. Race 9 is a G1. Race 10 is a G1. Race 11 being the Travers is a G1. And Race 12 is a G2 with G1 caliber horses. I mean, come on. That's basically 7 G1 races in a row.

http://www.drf.com/race-entries/track/SAR/country/USA/date/08-26-2017

Now we have to try to figure out how to make some money with all these races.

The Brisnet PP's (including morning line odds) for the card for anyone interested;

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

 

[Sharkey]

Just looking at the PP's of the G1 Personal Ensign, Going for Broke looks kinda interesting to me. Remember her guys? Some of us bet her last year when she ran 2nd as a big longshot to Songbird in the Alabama, and we were able to make some money that day. She's 5/1 on the morning line, but I would expect she goes off quite a bit better than that once the gates open and ends up in the 8/1 to 10/1 range just because the public should be backing Songbird heavily here, and then looking at Forever Unbridled as the primary alternative. Going for Broke had a very nice return to the races after a big long layoff in her last start when she had to overcome horses setting a soft pace up front and just missing out at the wire when Carina Mia beat her to the line by a neck. I think Going for Broke may have even won that race too if she didn't react so strongly to the way Carina Mia veered down into her during the stretch. There was no contact made, but there was a clear reaction to the veering, which may have stunted Going for Broke's momentum just a little bit. Who knows. You would think Going for Broke would be setting up for a better performance with this being her 2nd start off that 8+ month layoff, and she'll be doing it over a track that she's always ran well on (a win and 2 place finishes in 3 starts here). Highest last out Brisnet figure in the field for a trainer/jockey combination that have been winning a ton at this meet. Might be worth a few bucks on the win end, and then maybe a saver exacta underneath Songbird, who may have a big tactical advantage in this race even if she has tailed off some this year.

 

[Sharkey]

By the Moon looks most interesting to me in the G1 Ballerina just because I suspect that Paulassilverlining gets bet heavily in this race and goes off at something close to an even money favourite. If that's the case then By the Moon, who's 3/1 on the morning line, likely drifts up some into the 5/1 range maybe. Those two raced each other last time in the G2 Honorable Miss, and I think By the Moon was a little unlucky with the way she was ridden and the trip she got. The jock put the choke on her a couple of times along the backstretch to take her back, which then forced By the Moon to make a deep outside move on a track that had a heavy rail bias during that week at Saratoga (one of the reasons Good Samaritan's run in the Jim Dandy was even more impressive in addition to closing into a softish pace being set by a loose leader, as he closed on the worst part of the track). By the Moon still made a run at the end, though, to finish less than a length back of Paulassilverlining at the wire. There's very little speed signed on for this race on Saturday, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if those two are the two early leaders. By the Moon drawing outside Paulassilverlining should mean that By the Moon gets that prime piece of real estate of with an outside stalking trip over moderate fractions. That's the position that By the Moon wins when she gets it, as she has done in each of her last two wins. She's not nearly as effective if she is forced to come from off the pace a little. She might be worth a play in the Ballerina I'm thinking.

 

[Sharkey]

After a quick look at the King's Bishop PP's (race is named after Jerkins now, but whatever...it's still the King's Bishop), it looks like Practical Joke may be the most likely winner, although No Dozing may offer the value in the race at his 12/1 morning line odds just because of how much early speed is signed on with Takaful, Coal Front, Phil Beta Express, and Wild Shot. Looks like that race should very well open up in the end for a mid/late runner. Not sure I want to bet American Anthem in this spot as the favourite afterall, but we'll look at it more later on.

 

[Sharkey]

Where the hell is the pace in the G1 Forego. Shit, this field may allow Drefong to walk on the lead the way it looks on paper, although if he's not up to the task Divining Rod at 5/1 looks like a nice alternative as he'll probably be sitting up close on a rather paceless race himself.

 

[Sharkey]

Bigger Picture looks best out of the North American runners in the Sword Dancer, although I have no clue what either of the two European runners (Erupt and Idaho) have to offer. Just on class alone, though, it looks like the two Euros may be tough to beat. We'll see though. The turf course is likely to be sitting there baking in the sun leading up to the race, which would make it that much firmer to run on, so maybe the Euros will have trouble with it. Not sure.

 

[Sharkey]

Jesus, as deep as this Travers is I'm finding it to be a case of "I don't want to bet this guy" for the vast majority of the horses. Besides Good Samaritan that is.

I don't want to bet Cloud Computing in this race because he only has that one race to his name and that's a race where he got a perfect setup taking advantage of two horses that were dueling on the lead the whole way. His race over the track last time out left a lot to be desired as well, and left him exhausted after the race.

I don't want to bet Guiseppe the Great because, well, he's really not all that good, and it's hard to see him having much of a chance in a 10F race over a demanding track when he's spent most of his career as a sprinter who tended to lose ground in the late going more often than not.

I don't want to bet West Coast because he's going to be bet heavily based on what Baffert did with Arrogate last year, and with this horse being nothing like Arrogate at all in talent or running mechanics. He's a short little strider who Baffert has uncharacteristically handled with kid gloves for one reason or another. Baffert is almost always putting his good horses in G1 races 3-5 races into their career. Not their 7th race. This horse has also gotten great race setups against weak competition his last 2 wins. No thanks.

I don't want to bet Tapwrit to win just because he's the morning line favourite and lacks the speed at any portion of a race to warrant that favouritism. He does have the stride length and proven stamina to be a factor to finish top 3, though, and isn't completely without a shot to win if the race becomes simply a test of endurance at the end. No concern at all with the layoff, as that was the plan all along, and Pletcher might be the best at having a horse primed in a big race off a layoff.

I don't want to bet Girvin because he's Girvin and his best effort likely isn't as good as most of these horses best efforts. He also had the perfect race setup last time out in the Haskell when he was able to lag behind and take advantage of a 3 horse pace duel up front.

I don't want to bet Always Dreaming because he's going to be overbet as the Derby winner, has fallen off form since that race, and had no business losing the Jim Dandy last time out even if he was a little short fitness-wise considering he was given an easy lead over softish fractions on the best part of the track. He also looks like a weak minded horse as well, who'll be in a lot of trouble if herd dynamics come into play. Plus I've just never been all that high on him.

I don't want to bet Lookin At Lee because he's nothing but a pure plodder who's likely never going to win a race like this, or even come close to winning one. Maybe if the race comes completely apart late he can clunk up for a 3rd or 4th to round out exotics, but even then there are likely better options in that scenario.

I don't want to bet McCracken because why would I when he has lost ground in every race he's had so far at 9F or more, including his last race when he had that thing in the bag late after getting it set up for him only to see him fade and get ran down by Girvin in the Haskell. He's not a 10F regardless of the track, but especially a track like Saratoga. Plus he has a fanclub out there and likely gets overbet as well.

I don't want to bet Irap, because...well, maybe I do for no other reason than I'm running out of options here. He's okay. Might be up against it from a class and distance standpoint, but he's okay. And should be a pretty decent price too. Beat McCracken and Tapwrit in the Blue Grass, which has been a key race for this year's cop so far. Beat Girvin in the Ohio Derby. Easily beat Colonelsdarktemper in the Indiana Derby and that one came back to win the WV Derby a couple weeks back. Irap is okay. I can't knock him.

I don't want to bet Gunnevera because he peaked already in the spring, fell off form, and it's hard to envision him getting back to form here after having only that one nothing race a few weeks back against nobodies. But he'll be a big price here, and maybe he'd be the longshot in the field worth playing at 20/1 to round out exotics. He was pretty good when he was good and has shown good stride length when he was good, so he maybe able to run a good race if he's put that weight back on that he lost this spring and is in prime condition. Can do worse than him probably.

I don't want to bet Fayeq because I would never bet a duck in a horse race. Seriously, go do your waddle, waddle running in an allowance race somewhere. Ah, I shouldn't be too hard on this guy. He has a funny way of running, but he might not be all that bad even though he's very likely up against it in a big way in this race here.

So I don't know, maybe these are the options?

Good Samaritan
(daylight)
Irap
Tapwrit
Gunnevera

Maybe?

 

[Sharkey]

@t6p

You have any thoughts on this Travers field? After sleeping on it and with a second look, I think I'll probably end up passing on Tapwrit and Gunnevera too just because I think I'd rather back horses who have shown recent form and have been on the improve in recent months. Both Good Samaritan and Irap fit that logic. The others have either fallen off form or have too many other knocks against them for my liking. It's kinda narrow trying to hit the exacta with only two horses, but I may end up trying that just because I'm really not sure what else to do. Is there anybody that you see that could be another option?

 

[t6p]

@t6p

You have any thoughts on this Travers field? After sleeping on it and with a second look, I think I'll probably end up passing on Tapwrit and Gunnevera too just because I think I'd rather back horses who have shown recent form and have been on the improve in recent months. Both Good Samaritan and Irap fit that logic. The others have either fallen off form or have too many other knocks against them for my liking. It's kinda narrow trying to hit the exacta with only two horses, but I may end up trying that just because I'm really not sure what else to do. Is there anybody that you see that could be another option?

I was actually thrilled to see you looking to use Tapwrit and Gunnevera. I'm loyal to horses who've won for me before and they came through for us in the Tampa Bay and Fountain of Youth respectively (Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy too of course). No one else is really standing out for me at the moment, but obviously my wealth of knowledge isn't even on the same planet as yours so I can't be much help unfortunately bud. I do think I'll have to use that trio of Good Smararitan/Tapwrit/Gunnevera in some fashion though come Saturday.

 

[Sharkey]

I was actually thrilled to see you looking to use Tapwrit and Gunnevera. I'm loyal to horses who've won for me before and they came through for us in the Tampa Bay and Fountain of Youth respectively (Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy too of course). No one else is really standing out for me at the moment, but obviously my wealth of knowledge isn't even on the same planet as yours so I can't be much help unfortunately bud. I do think I'll have to use that trio of Good Smararitan/Tapwrit/Gunnevera in some fashion though come Saturday.

Good point, T. Backing a horse that you've had luck in the past with is always something that factors. I do it all the time myself. In fact I'm probably going to be backing a few horses this Saturday who I've backed in in the past regardless if I've had luck with them or not (Going for Broke, Practical Joke, Bigger Picture, Good Samaritan, etc). If you feel good about playing Tapwrit and Gunnevera in this race then I could as well. I'd like a couple more options anyways since it's such a good betting opportunity with the amount of options available to the public, and the price on Gunnevera will at least be worthwhile if he does manage to finish well this race. Okay, let's do it.

 

[Sharkey]

I got this fantastic Saratoga card finished as far as any capping goes because, why the hell not. I can't wait for it to be honest. We have the best race of the year in the Travers, which is about as good a betting race as you'll see. And we also have tremendous supporting races as well. So this is how I plan to play it all;


G1 Personal Ensign (race 6) - Going for Broke to win for 1u and then a Going for Broke, Forever Unbridled exacta box for 0.5u. It's a gamble leaving Songbird out completely and it's not likely to hit. But if she's 1/5 off of her having some backward form then the odds say it's worth the gamble to me.

G1 Ballerina (race 7) - By the Moon to win for 2u.

G1 King's Bishop (i.e. Jerkens) (race 8) - Practical Joke to win for 2u and then a couple of exactas with both Practical Joke & American Anthem over No Dozing for 0.5u each.

G1 Forego (race 9) - Divining Rod to win for 2u.

G1 Sword Dancer (race 10) - Bigger Picture to place for 2u. Not sure he can beat both the Euros, but in 9 of his last 10 races he's either won or been within a length of winning, so I feel confident he shows that same consistency and is there at the end again.

G1 Travers (race 11) - Good Samaritan to win for 5u and then a bunch of exactas with Good Samaritan, Tapwrit, Irap over Good Samaritan, Tapwrit, Irap, Gunnevera for 0.5u each (6u total).

G2 Ballston Spa (race 12) - Antonoe to win for 2u. She won for me two races back, and then ran a hell of a race last time out when she broke through the gate before the race (horses hardly ever run well after doing so), got squeezed and impeded in the stretch by a pair of horses to her outside and still only lost by a length to Lady Eli, who'll be a big favourite in this race.


I gave myself a $300 budget for this card (all my units are $10...yeah, I'm cheap), so I still have $60 left over to play around with. I'll probably just play a $2 trifecta box in the Travers with the 4 horses I have there ($48 total), and then maybe a $2 trifecta box in the King's Bishop as well with the 3 horses I'm playing in that race ($12). But we'll see. Gormely, Battle of Midway, and some others are also running on Saturday in a stakes race at Del Mar, so there may be something I like in that race instead.

 

[Dragons Roar]

Nice one Sharkey, really appreciate the effort to share with us