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NFL Super Bowl 50 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Jae Gibbz, Jan 26, 2016.

  1. Mike Panther White Belt

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    Anyone attracted to Cam's first rushing attempt under/over 5.5 yards? I'm liking the under here at approx. -120 (LV Book) as I can see Carolina showing one of those somewhat obvious Newton keepers early in the game and Denver snuffing it out. Newton's first rush could reasonably come in a goal line situation as well and the under would work there.
     
  2. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I am not exactly attracted to it, but I do like the under instead of the over

    EDIT: Actually, now that I think about it, Denver is one of the best if not the best against the run in the whole league and Newton averaged less than 5.5 per rush this season.

    I think I'm going to play that. Ehh I can only get -135. I'll do .4u for .3u
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2016
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Cam hasnt scrambled off of a passing play a lot this season. the majority of his rush attempts are from those QB read option plays. I think thats a big plus for you guys betting the under. I think its likely he gets 6 or more if its off of a passing play where he cant find anyone open
     
  4. touchedbyjab Banned Banned

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    Betting on coin toss, betting tails for .5u.

    Reason: Tails is coming off b2b flips from he past two superbowls and it leads heads 25-24 lifetime. The only other time the panthers have been to the superbowl the coin went tails. Tails has been flipped in the broncos last 3 superbowl appearances. Bet the house on tails boyz.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I'm a moron. I sat there and tried on my laptop like 20 times last night with no luck. Just tried with my phone and worked.
     
  6. vkram Brown Belt

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    Putting my flat up for sale as I type, great find!
     
  7. Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    Loving all the money coming in on the Panthers. Just letting it inflate as much as possible before jumping on Denver. I think 6+ is way too many to be giving against quite possible the best defense in the league on a neutral field with 2 weeks to game plan. Same logic applies to Peyton having additional time to game plan. Phyiscally he is on his last legs yes, but he still is one of the best minds the position has ever seen. This is a legacy game for him that I believe he desperately wants after everyone counted him out weeks ago. Also like that this is in San Francisco and not a cold weather location that will effect Manning's ball.

    I see this as a low scoring game and fully expect the Denver pass rush to get to Cam at times. I think the under has solid value also.
     
  8. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    It is still only a 50% chance, though :( The bookies have the edge unless you got a line that is +100 or better

    Anyway, good luck!
     
  9. letmebangbrah Green Belt

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    i honestly feel like it's a repeat of the seahawks/broncos super bowl and carolina wins fairly comfortably. manning's arm is shot and the broncos run game is no match for carolina's d. feel like manning will turn the ball over leading to short field position/defensive scores and it's all downhill from there having to rely on peyton to throw you back into the game at this point in his career. his lack of arm strength plays into the panthers coverage and i wouldn't be surprised if keuchly scored another pick 6 this week. i have no problem laying -7 if it gets to that.
     
  10. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    .33u Vernon Davis receiving yards o5.5 +155

    Yeah, he has been sucking and has barely been playing much, BUT the Super Bowl is being played in the 49ers stadium. The same team that drafted him and he played for, for 10 years/his entire career until being traded to the Broncos this year.

    I am willing to take a small shot at this
     
  11. iGnP Silver Belt

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    If you're expecting Manning to turn the ball over a lot, put money on those props at + money instead of laying 7. Peyton has turned into the ultimate game manager, i dont expect him to make bad decisions. in reality, i think he will be able to take advantage of some mismatches on defense. people forget how many weapons the broncos have on offense. I also cant see Carolina moving the ball easily against the Broncos defense. +7 points is a no brainer bet in my opinion (probably because the line is +6 but maybe you're getting 7 at some odd book) w the Broncos defense. is it a lock? obviously not. but its the sharp play in my opinion
     
  12. iGnP Silver Belt

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    just FYI guys, if you're planning on betting the panthers, you might want to wait until Sunday. I have a feeling that there will be Broncos money coming in
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    @Jae

    Nice call on the Thomas Davis MVP bet. He's practicing fully, and his line is down to +15000. I missed the +40000 but got it at +30000. If he's good to go and active like it looks like he will be this is a terrific line. Literally a tipped pass that he picks off and a fumble that he happens to be the guy to fall on and we very well could win this bet.
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    For sure, man. And like I said in my original "write up" it could be magnified by the fact that he broke his arm two weeks ago. On top of that, he is also a good dude off the field which you cannot say for most NFL players. I'm not sure that will factor into the decision but it can possibly play a role if he is involved in a close conversation for MVP

    It is still obviously a longshot, but we definitely have a sick line on him. Oh wow, I just checked his odds on BM and it's only +6156! Crazy man
     
  15. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Neither QB will throw for over 300 passing yards -198 (BM) 2.475u to win 1.25u


    Cam Newton - in 16 regular-season games this year, he threw for over 300 passing yards only 3 times. Twice against the Saints and once against the Giants... Both had bad defenses

    Peyton Manning - in 10 regular-season games this year, he threw for over 300 passing yards only two times. Once against the Lions and once against the Packers. Neither of them have good defenses


    Panthers Defense vs QBs - in 16 regular-season games this year, only 4 quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards against them. Luke McCown (flukish because he started for Drew Brees and had a little tape on him and didn't play for a while), Aaron Rodgers (obviously one of the best quarterbacks in the league), Matt Ryan (a good quarterback with one of the best wide receivers in the league), and Jameis Winston (the #1 overall pick this year, and in the last game of the season. You pretty much know what that means)...

    Broncos Defense vs QBs - in 16 regular-season games this year, only 1 quarterback threw for over 300 yards against them. It was Ben Roethlisberger, a great quarterback with one of the best wide receivers in the league


    Obviously anything can happen, but I absolutely love the line on this prop. This and the Panthers turnovers +.5 prop are easily my 2 favorites so far. I might add more to this

    _______________________________________________


    Ronnie Hillman most rushing yards +752 (BM) .25u

    I do not feel like doing it write up, it is basically just a straight up value play
     
  16. Mga223 Steel Belt

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    I'm on Denver at $2.85/+185 and Denver +7 at like +400-500 (need to re check).

    Cam O2.5 TD passes at +400 worth a bet?
     
  17. iGnP Silver Belt

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    R
    Ronnie hillman is a bum tho lol
     
  18. iGnP Silver Belt

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    One prop that I loved was CJ Anderson o2 receptions. I can see some check downs to him during the game
     
  19. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Anderson isn't that much better lol.
     
  20. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Agree to disagree I guess. Andersons 4.7 ypa is very respectable. Ronnies 4.2 isn't
     

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