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Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - February 2016

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Rawex, Feb 1, 2016.

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  1. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Spotlight was better to me, but thats probably good since my favorite film of the year never wins. Revenant reminded me of that space movie with Sandra Bullock where its a cinema experience more than anything due to unbelievable cinematography. Pretty sure the Bullock movie lost.

    These noms really showcase how mediocre last year was for films. I think all favorites won for the Grammys if thats any sign of things to come.
     
  2. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Sorry man haven't been on sherdog for most of the day. Hope you played it, you were spot on. For tomorrow, think Houston -1.5 is a trap? Considering dropping two units on it
     
  3. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Yeah thx i hit pistons ml for the w
     
  4. Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    Tough one, the thought of betting the Rockets this season always makes me cringe lol.

    Haven't looked at anything for tomorrow yet though.
     
  5. Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    Just an unreal day. The type that doesn't come around that often. Up about 27 units lol. Hope you guys made out as well.
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Congrats man. That is awesome!
     
  7. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Wow these asshole Oscars just fucked Sly out of the win. I'm scared for the money I have on The Revenant now. Can't believe I have money on this movie politics shit
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Son of bitch Stallone didn't win! Two small parlays busted! It's 6 days until 196 and I'm already down 1.5u!
     
  9. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Yeah they opened as moderate favorites. Was wondering if I should've put money down just cause of line movement. Not liking anything too much.

    I wanna say Taker is a lock, but idk too risky. Ambrose might get stabbed if he hits +300.

    Can't believe no insider shit came out to make lines ridiculously shift last PPV. Hopefully with this being WM some of these rats put it in work and we can catch the lines on the move
     
  11. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I'm thinking about betting Ambrose too. Is Roman Reigns still a lock?
     
  12. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    So pissed at myself for betting the Oscars. Money down the toilet.

    Hes getting boo'd to death but yeah I think so. HHH isn't even an active wrestler, so there is just no way they have him win
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    LOL the Revenant lost too. Serves me right for trying to cap what these people think. Now down 2.5u on UFC 196 six days before it even happens. Ugh.
     
  15. thesharktank Brown Belt

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    Cant believe they robbed Stallone like that. Bridge of Spies was one of the worst movies of the year hands down. Absolutely horrible. While Rylance had an unmistakable draw and charisma his character was completely one note, robotic and not believable in the slightest. Stallone built the most iconic pure cinematic character in history over 30 years and turned in his deepest/best performance and the Oscars hand it to some guy who shmucked it up in a Spieldberg flick that would have felt cheesy 20 years ago.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2016
  16. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Ouch. Best picture loss hurt
    ....paid so much juice to lose
     
  17. sonhow Silver Belt

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    Damn at Stallone getting robbed. It's like Penn over Rourke again.
     
  18. Slohog Green Belt

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    So I've been up from 2am Swedish time livebetting until between 2pm and 5pm four days in a row with good results on the dota 2 major in Shanghai. I've watch all but one match (I fell asleep and had to have a break the last day). Now the group stages are over and it's a two day break before the main event. I've put down a few plays thought for the first rounds in the brackets.

    Since I'm doing good this time I figured my two cents might have some value.

    In the winner's bracket I have:

    5u Alliance vs Liquid @1.4
    2u Alliance vs Liquid -1.5 @2.3
    2.1u MVP vs LGD @2.7


    In the loser's bracket I have:

    2u Virtus Pro vs Vici Gaming @2.0


    Reasoning for the bets
    Alliance vs Liquid
    I rated Alliance a B+ during the group stages, they had unpredictable and varied but good drafts, won all their games, had some amazing team fight execution and seems to be on the same page for the most part. They're 12-1 in the last 13 matches (in non-captains draft) against some of the best teams in the world and before that the only big slip ups the last months happened when they played on almost no sleep due to some kind of snowstorm that messed with flights to Belarus.

    Liquid got a Slohog-rating of C+ for the group stage performance going 1-2 vs VP, 2-0 vs CoL and then winning their last match vs VP 2-0. I think they had one draft win and one draft loss vs VP in the first round, lost the somewhat even draft and then was a size too big for CoL (despite CoL being underrated) and ending the day with a 2-0 stomp over VP who at this point looked really tilted and or tired. When VP's Captain FNG instapicks stuff during the draft I think it's a fairly good sign they'll lose the game, last time I saw it was the last two games vs EG at the Summit 4.

    Team Liquid has looked very shaky for a long time and while a lot of that was due to them not really giving a shit about smaller tournaments I really feel that their coordination has been off too and that just won't cut it against Alliance.

    As for the match up I think A can just ban out Liquids Void + AOE-teamfight combos which they've been successful with or just come prepared for it. Given how the recent months have looked A is much better in the late game, has a better drafting phase and has better team fight coordination. They might give up one game if they decided to do their Jon Jones impression and just give Liquid whatever the crap they want and then try to outplay it while playing Liquid's game. A more likely scenario in my mind is however that they'll just run Liquid over in straight games and keep trucking until they run into OG or EG in he winner's bracket's final where they might have a bunch of issues.

    MVP vs LGD
    LGD is a better team then MVP, they're more proven, they have on of the all time best captains in rOtK and their players ranges from very solid veterans to on of the new superstars of Chinese dota in Maybe. However, it's been chinese new years which means that all the teams from China has ranged from "absolutely awful" to "much worse then I expected" in their performance this tournament due to spending time with their families and whatnot instead of practising computer games 35 hours per day. To be fair LGD did not look as awful as for example CDEC or Vici Gaming, but they do not look anything like in prime shape. I gave them a C for their group performance.

    MVP on the other hand has looked like shit for the most part since the International last summer and they don't even have the same squad given that their captain had to do military service in South Korea. However, they destroyed their group going 4-0 with quick and dominant victories over Team Secret and Ehome and three of their five players are ranked in the top 10 on the Chinese MMR leaderboard (#1, #5 and #10). This squad is in shape, coordinated and has a clear idea about how to play at least the early game of this patch. A team like Alliance, EG or OG might be able to survive the early onslaught and take over the game later but I don't think LGD is the team to do it given their recent shape and I have to bet MVP here at 2.7. If this game was played today I'd say they would be the straight up favourites with some margin and despite LGD getting a few days to prepare I think there's a much better chance that MVP wins then the odds indicate. I'll probably ad to this bet if odds keeps solid or climbs.

    VP vs VG
    I love Vici Gaming but anyone who saw their group preformance and says that they're playing well is either on drugs, without any knowledge at all about Dota 2, or someone you really shouldn't buy a used care from. It's best of one which increases variance and just the pure talent on Vici Gaming keeps me away from going big on Virtus Pro at evens, but yea, if group stages is any indication VP should have this in the bag. Vici looked really god damn awful. I gave them a D+, the 2nd lowest rating I gave to any team while VP got a C+.
     
  19. iGnP Silver Belt

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    @Dusty Trunks

    Regarding the Houston game I mentioned earlier, I'm gonna take a small stab at the Bucks even though I hate betting them. I think this line is just begging for a Rockets bet. I'm gonna hold off until right before tip off to place it since I think it's very possible the line creeps up to 2 or maybe 2.5. Not trying imply you should tail, but I just wanted to update you after looking into the game a bit more
     
  20. Slohog Green Belt

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    Prediction on non-bet games for Shanghai.

    Winner's bracket
    EG B vs Fnatic C+
    Fnatic looks ok but they'll probably get beat here. EG looks good and they're probably one of the favourites to win it all. Think the odds looks about right.

    OG B vs Secret C+

    Loser's bracket
    Spirit C vs CoL C
    Bummed about this match up, was hoping to get both at dog odds against some random out of shape china team. Flip a coin, gun to my head I think I'd take CoL since they seem to be in good shape, in full try hard mode and took a game of EG. Also players known to over preform from time to time.


    Ehome C- vs Archon D
    Ehome should win even if they're out of shape. Odds reflects that. No bet


    CDEC C- vs Newbee C-
    Guessing Newbee takes it but I don't like the odds.
     
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