Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March 2016

[Rawex]

i believe it. Germany had no mercy whatsoever

But since you won your basketball bets maybe follow my 3 team parlay? Odds not that good but its pretty much a lock to hit.

 

[iGnP]

But since you won your basketball bets maybe follow my 3 team parlay? Odds not that good but its pretty much a lock to hit.

haha the dreaded "L" word. ill throw a small bit on it. i dont normally tail w a big amount anyway. BOL man

 

[Rawex]

haha the dreaded "L" word. ill throw a small bit on it. i dont normally tail w a big amount anyway. BOL man

I know should not use that word but 9/10 times in this stage of Asian WC qualifiers Australia, Japan and South Korea look like Prime Germany with that look in their eye.

 

[plekz]

I know should not use that word but 9/10 times in this stage of Asian WC qualifiers Australia, Japan and South Korea look like Prime Germany with that look in their eye.

It's pretty daft doing 3-team parlays paying out @ 1.20 when it's enough to have a red card or a water drenched pitch to fk you completly. Oh and plenty people saw a Brazil collapse coming (not a 7 - 1 collapse) but enough to put huge stakes backing Germany in that game, Neymar getting injured (who was the soul of the whole team) and then Thiago Silva (who was the backline leader) taking a yellow in the game against Colombia and being suspended the +odds on Germany were a gift. As were backing Holland HUGE in the 3rd prize game.

 

[Rawex]

It's pretty daft doing 3-team parlays paying out @ 1.20 when it's enough to have a red card or a water drenched pitch to fk you completly. Oh and plenty people saw a Brazil collapse coming (not a 7 - 1 collapse) but enough to put huge stakes backing Germany in that game, Neymar getting injured (who was the soul of the whole team) and then Thiago Silva (who was the backline leader) taking a yellow in the game against Colombia and being suspended the +odds on Germany were a gift. As were backing Holland HUGE in the 3rd prize game.

Maybe but these 3 advance from this part of qualifying without breaking a sweat (Australia won 7-0, Japan 5-0 up, South Korea still at 0-0 but they are dominating). Sadly i bet on the over 1.5 in Japan-Afganistan in first half and bet failed.

Yeah i did bet on Germany (and Netherlands) against Brazil but 5-0 in what 28 minutes, was something else.

 

[plekz]

Maybe but these 3 advance from this part of qualifying without breaking a sweat (Australia won 7-0, Japan 5-0 up, South Korea still at 0-0 but they are dominating). Sadly i bet on the over 1.5 in Japan-Afganistan in first half and bet failed.

Yeah i did bet on Germany (and Netherlands) against Brazil but 5-0 in what 28 minutes, was something else.

South Korea have had 2 shots on target in 70 minutes. AGAINST Lebanon, on what planet is that ''dominating'' are they bossing possession? sure they are, but possession is worth dick if you are just kicking the ball around midfield and can't create to save your life. Now will they probably scrape a 1 - 0 or 2 - 0? Yeah because Lebanon are beyond shite, but you've done a triple here paying out at a meager 1.20 calling them ''locks''

A lock, doesn't struggle to score a single goal for 70 minutes.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

South Korea have had 2 shots on target in 70 minutes. AGAINST Lebanon, on what planet is that ''dominating'' are they bossing possession? sure they are, but possession is worth dick if you are just kicking the ball around midfield and can't create to save your life. Now will they probably scrape a 1 - 0 or 2 - 0? Yeah because Lebanon are beyond shite, but you've done a triple here paying out at a meager 1.20 calling them ''locks''

A lock, doesn't struggle to score a single goal for 70 minutes.

how you doing, Plekz longtime no see.

 

[plekz]

how you doing, Plekz longtime no see.

I'm good man, life taking up most of my time, and the ''redesign'' by the rejects that did myspace is why i hardly post here anymore. How's life for you?

---------

So South Korea finally manage a goal in the last minute of overtime, when they were paying 13x to win the game in liveplay.

 

[Rawex]

So South Korea finally manage a goal in the last minute of overtime, when they were paying 13x to win the game in liveplay.

Yup i got that bet wrong. Also i didnt bet on them to win, was over bets in first half. 1.84 odds.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I'm good man, life taking up most of my time, and the ''redesign'' by the rejects that did myspace is why i hardly post here anymore. How's life for you?

---------

So South Korea finally manage a goal in the last minute of overtime, when they were paying 13x to win the game in liveplay.

I'm pretty good bruh, glad to see you back. Agree, the redesign is pretty bad lol.

 

[EzFlyer]

1.53u rosol -102 ml
1.08u coric-istomin o22 -108

And another 0.2u wawrinka Miami +2800 hehe.

Tempted by kudla +3.5, seppi-young o22... But just the two above I think.

 

[cs02132]

I did under 6.5 in Saudi Arabia vs Malaysia. I know nothing about these teams besides looking at their recent games. But I'll take an u6.5 in a soccer game even if it loses

Edit: looking good 0-0 in the 50th. Should have done more, I don't think there will be 7 goals in this half lol

 

[cs02132]

God damn it. My GoalLive app didn't have Spain v Italy listed today so I was unaware it was on, I thought it was tomorrow. I was planning on putting $ on the draw but I was just waiting for the line ups to be sure. Ended 1-1. Fuck !!

Frustrated about today..Should have done more on the SA/Malaysia game and then the Italy/Spain game. I could have been up $100 today which is a great day for me betting wise

 

[MYSTXRIVL]

Whats the best way to hedge and make money in this situation, I put 100 on both Kansas at +1200 and Villanova +1600 before the tournament started and now they're matched up against each other before the final four. Not sure if i should just leave it kinda unfortunate they got put into the same bracket.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Bad beat sob story: I livebet Duke +13.5 and with almost no time left they stopped fouling down by 11, game's pretty much over almost no time left. Then some bastard from Oregon throws up a deep three b/c the shotclock's running out and hits it and I get fucking backdoored at the last second. Fuck that one hurt lol.

 

[mkess101]

Whats the best way to hedge and make money in this situation, I put 100 on both Kansas at +1200 and Villanova +1600 before the tournament started and now they're matched up against each other before the final four. Not sure if i should just leave it kinda unfortunate they got put into the same bracket.

Leave it. You have one team in the final 4. Hedging now makes no sense imo.

If you want to hedge wait until the final 4. Of course odds will be down on the other teams you're hedging with but the flipside is there's only 3 others instead of 6 (6 being if you waited until after tomorrow night's games).

 

[EzFlyer]

2u verdasco -130
1u pospisil +107

and i like tampa -150 in hockey.

 

[cs02132]

Once again GoalLive letting me down. Didn't know France v Holland was today. France dominating this game like I expected, up 2-0 at the half. +114 was a great line

Guess I have to check BM for when games are on lol

 

[Mki]

NHL Tomorrow
Col-Min
Very big game for both teams. Both are fighting for the last playoff spot so basically it's a 4 point game. I'm hoping
both teams really try to avoid mistakes and play defense first.
I'm thinking stabbing u5 maybe even u4.5. Too bad there are no odds yet and don't even have time tomorrow
check lineups/goalies.
It's a gamble (and kind a stupid one without checking lineups) but if odds are right I'm putting down 200€ u5 , 50€ u4.5 and maybe 50€ Parise to score.

Thanks Ez for the Verdasco tip and BOL to everyone.

 

[Sharkey]

Bad beat sob story: I livebet Duke +13.5 and with almost no time left they stopped fouling down by 11, game's pretty much over almost no time left. Then some bastard from Oregon throws up a deep three b/c the shotclock's running out and hits it and I get fucking backdoored at the last second. Fuck that one hurt lol.

Hey Blunt. I've been looking over some videos and some past performances getting ready for the Louisiana Derby tomorrow, and while I'm not crazy about any of these horses' chances as of now as far as the Derby goes, I'm going to be dropping down some money on Gun Runner to win this race tomorrow.

He won the last prep race at this track when he took the Risen Star, and I think that win is actually much more impressive than his margin of victory indicated since he was stalking behind a past pace all throughout the race whereas the 2nd and 3rd place finishers came from way back in a race that should have benefited their style. Gun Runner also made a couple of nice early moves in that race that suggests good tactical ability. The race tomorrow shouldn't have nearly the fractions that last race did, and his tactical speed says that he'll be in a good position to get first run on the leader(s). His Risen Star performance, as well as him being a Candy Ride colt, says the extra distance should be no issue at all. His workout patterns says he's ready to run as well. He fired a bullet in his 2nd to last workout and then had a maintenance work last time out. I always like to see that, and especially when it comes to a Steve Asmussen trained horse. That pattern alleviates some of what I think may be my only concern about Gun Runner in this race. Quite often a horse will underperform (or bounce if you will) in his next race after a big effort in his first start off a layoff, but that pattern suggests that that shouldn't be an issue tomorrow for Gun Runner.

Gun Runner will probably be the 2nd or 3rd choice in the betting tomorrow behind Mo Tom for sure, and possibly Greenpointcrusader. I wouldn't touch Greenpointcrusader tomorrow, though, since his best race was in the slop, has only had one race since in the past 5 months and that was 2 months ago, plus his recent workouts have been slow. I don't think he's ready to fire his best tomorrow and I've not seen evidence that his best effort on a dry track would even be good enough even if he was at his best. He's an auto-fade. Mo Tom is dangerous though. He had an excuse against Gun Runner in his last race as he had to check up some in the stretch. But he also had a pace setup that was much more to his advantage in that race as well. Plus I'm not sure if it really made a difference in the result since that little bit of trouble happened when he was well out of it. He reminds me of Keen Ice in a lot of ways in that he's a closer that starts his late run way too late. Makes him a good bet to fill out exotics, but not really a good bet to win unless there's a pace meltdown in front of him, which I definitely don't see happening tomorrow.

Speaking of pace and if looking for some value, Candy My Boy could offer a lot if looking for a longshot to play. There's a decent chance that he ends up being the lone speed in the race tomorrow, and if he gets an easy lead he could carry this field a long way since he is another Candy Ride colt that should have the stamina. He faded to 4th in the Risen Star, but it was still a good effort considering he was the pacesetter all throughout and finished less than 3 lengths back at the line. With a slower pace he could close that distance some and maybe even all the way to pull the upset. Tom's Ready had a very poor effort in the Risen Star, but he fits one of my favourite betting angles if looking for a longshot to fill out tris and supers. Closers who are forced to run fast early and mid race in their last race before fading late have been really good to me in the past. Tom's Ready has already showed this pattern twice before in fact and he's rebounded both times. Forced to run fast early in the Hopeful and then faded to 5th beaten by 12 legnths. In his next race he won by over 3 lengths. Forced to run fast early in another and then faded to finish 8th beaten 13 lengths. Came back in the race after that and finished 2nd by a neck. These races where closers have been forced to run fast early tend to be real lung openers for them and they tend to produce good results in their next race. I don't think Tom's Ready is a real win candidate considering competition. But I expect him to run well above what his odds indicate.

Not sure what bets I place beyond a win bet. But if I am looking at some exotic plays I may go;

Win bet: Gun Runner

Exacta: Gun Runner over Candy My Boy with maybe a smaller reverse

Trifecta: I'd probably box those two with Mo Tom and hope for the best. Maybe key Tom's Ready in the 3rd spot behind those other three on a few tickets.