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To me, it's just a no brainer from a business perspective. If you have millions of people willing to drop another $700-$1000 dollars on a newer console that won't be anywhere near the development costs of the original, you shove those new drivers and chips and whatever into the old box and get that money. That said, MS might not be in the same position Sony is, when it comes to that. They're still trying to find their footing with the Series X.From the Microsoft hardware info leak from the court case against the FTC there wasn't any mention of a mid gen refresh only the refreshes of the X (digital only and new shape) and S (slightly different shape, black and 1tb) plus the shelved stuff like the streaming stick and and custom stuff for controllers.
There was an interview that Phil Spencer said that he saw the X as the mid gen refresh but just available at the start of the gen but I agree with what you said,I wouldn't put it past them if they had something cooking