Official UFC Fight Night 76 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Oblivian]

Same drill as always - post bets, discuss bets/matchups, and other sports in spoilers.

Spoiler

Singles
Smolka: $12.50 to win $10.42
Gilbert Smith: $10 to win $5.95 $15.95
Pendred: $5 to win $10.50
Fitch: $3.75 to win $6 $9.75
Elkins: $3.75 to win $2.59
Madadi (+3.5): $3.75 to win $2.50
Ray ITD: $2.50 to win $5.48
Rinaldi: $2.50 to win $2.27 $4.77
Frausto: $2.50 to win $1.52 Loss
Ontiveros/Page over 1.5: $1.25 to win $2.19Loss
King: $1.25 to win $4 Loss

Risk of $43.75

Parlays
Vinny + Glenn: $10 to win $6.26 $16.26
US wins President Cup (Golf) + Poirier/Duffy doesn't start 5: $5 to win $3.88 $7
Field over Rory (Frys) + Reyes/Seery over 2.5: $3.75 to win $3.83
Field over Rose (Hong Kong) + Ashkam (scorecards = no action): $3.75 to win $2.30
Field over Rose (Frys) + Frelow/Bibulatov ITD: $2.50 to win $2.13 Loss
Field over Rose (Frys) + Mehmen/Ivanov over 1.5: $2.50 to win $2.41 $4.91
Newell + Vitkay: $2.50 to win $2.43 $4.93
Yamauchi + Halsey + Ward: $2.50 to win $2.11 Loss
Field over Kjeldsen (British Masters) + Jasper: $2.50 to win $1.95 Loss
Field over D. Johnson (Hong Kong) + Daly/Almeida dec: $2.50 to win $1.79
McLellan/Bush ITD + Dalby/Till dec: $1.25 to win $2.23

Risk of $38.75

TOTAL RISK OF $82.50

TOTALS FOR 2015: Initial Risk was $95, Running total is $159.37 Running Profit: $64.36 Approximate ROI for year 1.8561%)
TOTALS FOR 2014: Initial Risk was $127.50 Running Total is $148.35 Running Profit = $20.85 (Approximate ROI for year 0.74%)
TOTALS FOR 2013: Initial Risk was $232.50, Running total is $583.75 Running Profit = $351.25 (Approximate ROI for year: 9.34%)
TOTALS FOR 2012: Initial Risk was $275, Running Total is $1030.18 Running Profit = $755.18 (Approximate ROI for year: 15.56%)
TOTALS FOR 2011: Initial Risk was $44, Running Total $1271.39 Running Profit = $1227.39 (Approximate ROI for year: 27%)
TOTALS FOR 2010: Initial Risk was $29, Running Total $225.92 Running Profit = $196.92 (Approximate ROI for year: 13%)
GRAND TOTAL FOR 2010 THROUGH 2014: $29 into $2619.88 Total Profit = $2590.88 (Approximate ROI: 12.76924%)

 

[piglord]

i like a smolka and miocic double

if it wins i'm going in on poirier

 

[Card]

Here are my guesses - Favorites on the left:

Joseph Duffy vs. Dustin Poirier
Stipe Miocic vs. Ben Rothwell
Nicolas Dalby vs. Darren Till
Louis Smolka vs. Paddy Holohan
Norman Parke vs. Reza Madadi
Stevie Ray vs. Mickael Lebout
Neil Seery vs. Jon Delos Reyes
Scott Askham vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Aisling Daly vs. Ericka Almeida
Tom Breese vs. Cathal Pendred
Darren Elkins vs. Robert Whiteford
Garreth McLellan vs. Bubba Bush

 

[Card]

The two close fights so far:

- Smolka vs. Holohan
- Dalby vs. Till

I remember watching tape of Till before his last win over Wendell de Oliveira Marques, Till was impressive. Had wrestling to boot.

Opening odds -

Current odds -

 

[Sham5916910]

More Smolka to watch but just watched Smolka/Seery. Going off memory here but I am pretty sure Smolka took Seey down easier than Pickett could. Pickett's wrestling isn't bad so I can really see Smolka dominating Holohan similar to how he dominated Seery.

Like I said need to watch all Smolka and Seery's UFC fights. I did bet Smolka against Richie and I thought my £££ was done for so he does scare me a little bit.

 

[Sham5916910]

Definitely like Till as a dog too, Dalby did not impress me in his debut.

 

[rille31]

personally I like dalby but its a wery close fight, hard to cap

not sure how the line will move, on tapology till is favoured with 75% but Dalby has the better resume

 

[Card]

Hometown fighters:

Joseph Duffy
Norman Parke
Patrick Holohan
Cathal Pendred
Aisling Daly

 

[Winded Walrus]

bookmarked

 

[jrwfsl147]

Interesting line on PP for UK bettors.

Can bet on McGregor's next opponent post-Aldo...

Edgar 9/4
Aldo rematch 9/4
Mendes 9/2
Faber 9/2
Anyone not listed 10/1
Holloway 16/1
Cerrone 22/1
Duffy 22/1
Diego 22/1
Dos Anjos 30/1
Lamas 40/1
Mayweather 100/1

Think Cerrone's a massive price there. Think if they both lose their title fights that'll be what they do.

 

[gspfedkobe24]

Reza is gonna make Norman tap book it.

 

[Sham5916910]

Interesting line on PP for UK bettors.

Can bet on McGregor's next opponent post-Aldo...

Edgar 9/4
Aldo rematch 9/4
Mendes 9/2
Faber 9/2
Anyone not listed 10/1
Holloway 16/1
Cerrone 22/1
Duffy 22/1
Diego 22/1
Dos Anjos 30/1
Lamas 40/1
Mayweather 100/1

Think Cerrone's a massive price there. Think if they both lose their title fights that'll be what they do.

I saw that and thought the opposite that if they both win they could well book it. Definitely worth £50.

 

[jrwfsl147]

I saw that and thought the opposite that if they both win they could well book it. Definitely worth £50.

Think if McGregor loses, he's moving up at which point Cerrone (coming off a loss) would be the obvious fight.

If McGregor wins and decides to forfeit the belt and move up, obviously he'll be getting an immediate title shot.

 

[MindSpin]

The hooligan wont be losing on home soil, sorry smolka backers.

 

[Sham5916910]

The hooligan wont be losing on home soil, sorry smolka backers.

You can't just put that dude. Care to elaborate?

 

[Oblivian]

You can't just put that dude. Care to elaborate?

Location: Dublin

 

[Ukram]

You can't just put that dude. Care to elaborate?

He's from dublin so gets a pass

 

[Sham5916910]

Haha good spot!

 

[wack3d]

i really hope my countryman Dalby can pull off the victory.. but once again i am considering a bet on his opponent (kinda win win lol)

i hoped Dalby would switch camps to something better but he is still training here in denmark and from looking at his twitter it looks like he is doing more teaching classes then actually getting pushed it in training..

at 30 y/o with this level of training i doubt we will see much improvement from him.

on the other hand i was super impressed by Till coming in on short notice and getting a good win i was also super impressed with the tape i watched on him before that fight.. at 22 y/o with a full camp and better training partners then Dalby he will most likely improve a ton each time he fight.

still gotta watch some tape to see how they stack up against eachother.. but at this point i am leaning towards the younger fighter

 

[Sham5916910]

i really hope my countryman Dalby can pull off the victory.. but once again i am considering a bet on his opponent (kinda win win lol)

i hoped Dalby would switch camps to something better but he is still training here in denmark and from looking at his twitter it looks like he is doing more teaching classes then actually getting pushed it in training..

at 30 years with this level of training i doubt we will see much improvement from him.

on the other hand i was super impressed by Till coming in on short notice and getting a good win i was also super impressed with the tape i watched on him before that fight.. at 22 y/o with a full camp and better training partners then Dalby he will most likely improve a ton each time he fight.

still gotta watch some some tape to see how they stack up against eachother.. but at this point i am leaning towards the younger fighter

Completely agree. I really thought Till looked good in his debut and Dalby not so.

Ps thanks for the tip on swapping JB for DC/Gus over 1.5. I know JB won but the over bet was far safer. I already had JB in a £500 bet and I really didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket.