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Official UFC fight night 83 Thread

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Roads55, Jan 8, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    oh, no doubt. i am normally all over O5.5 at evnes on a 13 fight card

    but i think the MOST likely decisions are

    kawa bermudez
    riggs camozzi
    krause campbell
    strickland garcia
    webb coy
    murphy-faszholz

    and none of them are certainties (i think strickland-garcia is most likely decision of the 6(13) (even tho murphy fasz is priced the most likely)

    SUPER unlikely decisions imo:
    smith-guimares
    bangbros-sarafian

    and could go either way imo:

    brunson-carneiro
    mendes-garbrandt
    reneau-evanssmith
    hamilton-abdur
    cowboy vs cowboy

    how would you break it down? (i'm aware there are grey areas on all of these, tho i personally don't think the two fights i listed for NO decision are just that, no decision)

    (wiggle basically broke it down already, i see that)
     
  2. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Added 10 bucks on Camozzi-Riggs over 2.5 + M. Reneau at +148.
     
  3. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    lol I like how we got you saying "bangbros"

    Anyway, I'm not going to break it down as much as you did, but here's how I see it

    Good shot at going to a DEC:
    Fights 1-4
    Fights 7-10

    That's 8 fights right there

    I don't think will go to a DEC:
    Cowboys
    Bangbros
    A. Smith/Leleco

    Who the hell knows if it goes DEC, prob not:
    Brunson
    Garbrandt
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    You guys really think Brunson/Carneiro isn't likely to end itd? I'm not saying I'd drop dead from surprise if it did but I think Brunson's style is gonna lead to a finish way more often than not. He rushes in with punches and has a significant speed and power edge standing. Most likely outcome is Brunson by KO/TKO imo.
     
  5. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Huh? I lean towards it going itd, ez thinks it can go either way, and wiggle thinks it goes itd.. None of us said we lean towards it going DEC lol
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    NM, I missed where you said "prob not". My bad. I just read the "who knows".
     
  7. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    It's all good. You must've misread them too lol
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Right on. I actually hit the o 5.5 at evens just like you and took exactly 6 fights go to dec at +321. I think it's gonna be right in that neighborhood, 6 or 7 going to dec.
     
  9. Slohog Green Belt

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    Not a fan of Evans-Smith looking so much bigger then Reneau but liked how people looked other then that.
     
  10. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    I actually took exactly 5 fights going to a decision at +321 as a psuedo hedge to o5.5. But exactly 6 has a good shot at hitting
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    yea, that has scared me off my reneau play, man. plus OMFG it still hasn't budged. unreal!! -175 reneau has been the same price ALL WEEK! c'mon, people, bet evans smith so that i can have reneau evens, camannnnn
     
  12. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Doesn't someone ask the size of the cage before every event? Someone always answers, and it's usually the same person. It's one of you guys who has a name that begins with the letter J.

    Anyway, from what I can remember, big cages are used for cards with title fights, PPV cards, and FOX cards. Small cages are used for Fight Night and TUF cards.
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ahhhh, alright. i've been trying not to force the o/u event bets etc, but i'll stab at over decisions since the 5.5 is such a low # for evens at 13 fight card.

    fotn i'm going a bit square: 0.25u cowboys, 0.125u campbell krause

    (i have a hunch it could go to a.smith-guimares, but since it prolly ends early, i guess the payout isn't enough)
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    It's always me that answers it when it's a title fight, PPV or Fox card. Because they are always big cage.

    TUF Finales and fight nights are only candidates for small cages. And usually if it's a small arena. This is supposedly a pretty big arena
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yep. Small arenas want that extra space for seating since those are the premium priced seats on the floor.
     
  16. wack3d Silver Belt

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    wtf smith ko/tko just jumped from +330 to +650 lol i am hitting that for sure.. i think this is very likely to hit. smith got some power.. leleco has a good chin but very poor striking defence
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    What's the rationale on Kawajiri? Seems like everything he does well, Bermudez just does better these days. I get that Dennis is juiced pretty big but betting on Kawajiri is betting on an aging grinder (albeit one who's looked pretty good lately) against a younger more athletic guy who can actually play the grinding game better. I don't think Kawajiri can score takedowns and if he can't I think he's pretty much screwed here.
     
  18. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Great catch, I'm with you on that
     
  19. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    bamgbose getting hammered, sarafian down to -150...

    think faszholz is getting bet a bit, too (not as pronounced)

    and so the fight day line movement begins..
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Thanks for the heads up. Just hit that. Great odds and Smith can definitely find that chin.
     
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