Donald Cerrone (28-7 MMA, 15-4 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (14-2-1, 1 NC MMA 3-1 UFC)
Cerrone -295, Olivera +245
It's going to be a hoedown showdown for sure -- inside the octagon on February 21 -- when the American Cowboy takes on the Brazilian Cowboy in a tilt to determine once and for all which buckaroo has the right to mind the ranch and don the Stetson with pride.
The longstanding WEC/UFC veteran Donald Cerrone is a ultra-diverse mixed martial artist who had pieced together a remarkable eight fight win streak en route to challenging champion Rafael dos Anjos for the 155 pound LW title in his last outing. Unfortunately Cerrone would fall short in a mere 66 seconds of action as the champion landed a brutal strike to the liver that sent the American crumbling to the canvas unable to continue. Nevertheless, Donald has built a cult following due in large part to his Bud Light swigging Everyman persona buttressed by his "take on all comers" bravado. As such, during his march toward title contention, "Cowboy" wasn't on a proverbial Joe Louis "Bum of the Month Cub" fight tour, but was instead stacking bodies made up of the divisional elite in what seemed like a once a week affair. Indeed, finishes of B+ talent like Evan Dunham and Edson Barboza began his run where he would go on to pick off A+ level talent including Eddie Alvarez and Benson Henderson along the way. That said, as good as Donald is, he has had two cracks at the lightweight champion and has came up deuces on both tries. This Faber-esque inability to seize gold on multiple occasions has left the popular fighter in a bit of a lightweight purgatory. As a result, Donald is going to attempt to resurrect his career 15 pounds north of his usual weight class and try his hand in the welterweight division. Already a large 155 pounder, the 6'0" tall Cerrone isn't going to be giving away any notable size advantages as a welterweight but will rather be an average size competitor for the division. Moreover, with his long lean frame he'll be able to put muscle on it and should fill out nicely. Physical attributes aside, Donald is a Muay-Thai wrecking-machine with top shelf Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a granite chin who should have no problem picking up wins in whatever division he so chooses to compete.
Brazilian "Cowboy" Alex Oliveira burst on the International scene when he was a last-minute replacement opposite the highly touted prospect Gilbert Burns on March 21, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 62. Flying way under the radar Oliveira came into the bout a superheavy underdog closing at +575 to the undefeated Burns were it was anticipated but he would be blown out in the first frame. Subsequently, the Brazilian cowboy would indeed go on to lose a third around submission, but not before tuning up the highly touted Brazilian prospect in the first two stanzas forcing Burns into needing a desperation third round finish to win the match. Summarily, Oliveira would acquit himself well having ostensibly won the opening 10 minutes of the match as a short notice replacement. No longer a blip on the radar, the 27-year-old Oliveira's Muay-Thai striking is deadly and while he is just a Bluebelt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, his competency on the mat far exceeds his rank in the grappling art. At 5'11" tall with a 73 inch reach, the Brazilian has a sizzling kickboxing game with power in all four limbs. On the outside the Brazilian is an absolute sniper and with his deceptive strength he is a beast in the clinch as well. Incessantly initiating action, there simply is not an area in which you are safe with this kid. Indeed, he is consistently on his front foot marching you down begging for a fight. That's just it, the Brazilian absolutely loves to fight. A rarity in modern mixed martial arts, Oliveira competed five times in 2015 -- going 4-1 -- and he has not fought less than four times in a year since 2011.
This is a difficult fight to predict given that both men have fight ending power, are in the prime parts of their career, and are fighting in a weight class they are not accustomed to. Like Donald, the Brazilian has also been a natural lightweight competitor for most of his career with sparse appearances above the 155 pound limit. As such, neither man will have a distinct advantage given that both will be competing in somewhat foreign territory. With all that said, I do believe at the end of the day that it is the original "Cowboy" from Albuquerque, New Mexico who has the more diverse skill set and is a bit more clean with his technique. Therefore he has more ways to get the job done and better chance at ending the fight. Essentially, as long as Donald comes into the bout highly motivated -- with his head screwed on straight -- it is his fight to lose. Still yet, there are far too many variables for me to be comfortable in the pick and if I were betting on the scrap it would be a dog or pass scenario.
Prediction: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone earns his spurs via submission (arm-bar/triangle choke)