Official UFC on FOX 19 Thread - Tampa - Khabib vs Ferguson

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Oblivian said:
I definitely understand Mutante can win ITD and that it's his most likely outcome, but you have to look at the implied probabilities. Not Mutante ITD is 74%. I favor Bamgboose, probably just a shade more than where his line is at. We'll say -190 or so. That's an implied probability of 65%. We're talking a spread of 9%. It's not like we are talking about Mutante not having a chance to finish, but the odds are overestimating how often he'd finish vs. grind it out.
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man, i don't agree; you have to lay some big odds on NOT mutante itd... it doesn't feel worth it... especially when he does have CLEAR ways to finish the fight.

we've seen bamgbose twice. he got an easy KO in one and he looked like the whitest whitebelt in ufc history in the other, getting pounded the f out as soon as it hit the ground

NOT that happening = scary to lay juice. we don't know how bamgbose will react in so many situations... if mutante gets ahold of his neck, he's prolly tapping
 
EzFlyer said:
man, i don't agree; you have to lay some big odds on NOT mutante itd... it doesn't feel worth it... especially when he does have CLEAR ways to finish the fight.

we've seen bamgbose twice. he got an easy KO in one and he looked like the whitest whitebelt in ufc history in the other, getting pounded the f out as soon as it hit the ground

NOT that happening = scary to lay juice. we don't know how bamgbose will react in so many situations... if mutante gets ahold of his neck, he's prolly tapping
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I think you just see more value in Mutante is the difference. You expected his line to be close to even iirc at opening. I just think this fight screams his chin getting cracked, and he'll be looking to avoid that throughout by grappling or grinding against the cage.

Mutante gets overestimated as a finisher constantly too. Against Craig, he was expected to finish and won a decision. Ferreira/Safarian wasn't expected to hit the scorecards. Ferreira was supposed to finish Moraes and didn't. He's literally been to decision in three of his four UFC wins. My point is that the odds out of whack with his chances to finish vs. chance of decision. He is more likely to get a finish, but that large of a discrepancy.
 
I agree Ob, but man, Bambose is like, really bad at grappling. So bad that even a guy like Mutante deserves to be the favorite against him.
 
crewman said:
The smart bet for that fight would have to be on Mutante. For sure hes going to grapple with Bambose. Not impressed at all with Bambose, hes just a really interesting to watch fun striker but thats about it. Not UFC level imo. Cant believe Kalikas opened him up as a favorite.
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If you listen to his podcast you will see that he sets the line for what he assumes the public thinks, not what he thinks necessarily. The public always overreacts to chin issues.
 
crewman said:
Joseph Buden is a classic! Bets his biggest bet ever, then does his research after the fact HAHAHA, Do you also wipe your ass before you go to the bathroom Joseph?
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Are you Oblivian's alt or something? And when did I say this was my biggest bet ever? Tf is this lol its not like i'm not familiar with these guys, I just don't remember the finer details. Been awhile since I watched tape and i'm doing just fine
 
Lol at Crewman being my alt. you.must.be.new.here.jpg
 
weedreference said:
If you listen to his podcast you will see that he sets the line for what he assumes the public thinks, not what he thinks necessarily. The public always overreacts to chin issues.
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I don't think there is any over reaction to Mutante's chin issues. Craig almost finished him in round 3 that would be 4 straight KO losses. I really wanted to smash Bam's KO line when i saw this fight announced but i assume it's around -150? This is making me tempted to bet Mutante as much as I fade him I really think he can wrestle his way to a win here.
 
Bambose grappling is not UFC level, I pounded Uriah Hall against him and passed on the Sarafian fight.
 
Hacran Dias vs Swanson has to be one of the most hard to predict fights ever. Can see it going both ways.

Sham5916910 said:
I don't think there is any over reaction to Mutante's chin issues. Craig almost finished him in round 3 that would be 4 straight KO losses..
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Craig would most likely beat Bambose imo.
 
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Lol - I agree with crewman here. Dis gun b good.
 
Torres – She’s been my toughest opponent, we’ve both grown a lot, She comes at you the whole time, I’m more a counter fighter so it works out that way, my strength and conditioning has surpassed any other fight camp, have a new coach, arms more defined, jumping higher, everything is better, my cut is really easy, My output will be even more, I’ll be countering her the entire time

 
Firas says the guys who takes initiative early will win, says Rashad needs to get super offensive.

 
Evans will not fight super offensive its not his style or in his dna.
 
Evans also won't fight super aggressive because he wasn't training for a 5 round fight. He only got 9 days notice for that.

 
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Glover - The goal is to pressure and finish the fight as quick as possible

 
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