http://mixedmartialanalyst.com/ufc-fight-night-82-hendricks-vs-thompson-breakdown/
In the newly minted main event of the evening, Johny Hendricks and Stephen Thompson will battle for welterweight title contender-ship. Coming off the most impressive win of his career, Thompson will attempt to establish his arrival against his toughest test to date. Returning from a year of competition interrupted by professional & weight related issues, Hendricks will look to reestablish his dominance amongst the division.
Despite both men’s improvements of opposing skillsets, this match should still bear clear pathway advantages as I see this going
one of two ways. On the feet, not only do I feel that Thompson carries the on-paper edge, but also has certain favorable openings stylistically. Hendricks has stood and made his mark with strikers such as
Robbie Lawler,
Carlos Condit, and
Matt Brown. What’s important to noteis that all of these are forward moving strikers who are not natural counter fighters. In fact, Johny has yet to face a high-level counter striker, much less a
pin-point accurate world champion like Thompson.
Still showing to make strides in his striking game, Hendricks displays improved head movement and kicks off combinations. Wielding underrated leg kicks, he could test the wide-based stance of Stephen. However, with Johny being a southpaw, I expect the switch-stance Karate fighter to primarily operate from orthodox. Favoring kicks off his right leg, this stance will keep Thompson’s options of power kicks and spinning attacks in play. With Hendricks being a constant wrestling threat, I doubt Stephen spins much as I see his right head kick having success. Johny shows a natural tendency to keep his left hand low and even drop it on entries. This has traditionally opened him up to right hands and head kicks(as seen in his fights with
Condit &
Brown).
This could pose problems for Hendricks as Thompson wields accurate right crosses and well-disguisedhead kicks. Throwing consistent left to right hands, Stephen will smoothly sneak his kick over the shoulder off his darts(as seen in his fight with
Dan Stittgen). Obviously, Hendricks is a much more durable & skilled fighter than to whom I referenced. Regardless, he will still be playing with fire should stay in the range of Thompson. Johny’s clear path to victory here is to abuse Stephen with his wrestling edge. Though Thompson has shown impressive improvements to his overall grappling game, I’m not sure how successful he will be in thwarting one of the division’s best.
However, Hendricks takedown game has shown to be primarily implemented against the fence. Johny has displayed the ability to corral opposition here when he needs to, but must be especially careful doing so against Thompson. Hendricks aggression has worked well against said forward-moving strikers, but he could pay against an excellent counter striker(and angle-cutter) as he’ll often throw himself out of position on entries.
I came into this fight favoring Johny Hendricks, as I believe his on-paper advantages and resume makes him the justified favorite. That being said, the off-paper intangibles of his changes in management, nutritionists, and camp are
potential flags for me. Though Johny’s weight looks to be on point, we’ve still seen great fighters like
Chris Weidman come in light and not perform. Between those intangibles to the glaring technical holes standing, I feel that now is the best time for Thompson’s chances. Johny could very well demolish Stephen on the floor, but will likely need to put forth a massive effort to ground Thompson in the big cage. This could be very troubling for the Texan should he not get Stephen out of there early. For these reasons I strongly caution any serious plays here. However, I do stand by analysis & official pick, which is very hard to do as a big fan of Hendricks.
Official Pick: Thompson – Inside the distance
