RIZIN, MMA, betting thread

UFCIsNOTRigged said:
So one out of fifteen won, in the last 10 years, and you are holding that up as some kind of victory?

lol maybe you should stick to those no chance parlays.
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Lol take a joke man god people these days get offended over everything
 
Nothing exciting thus far on the prelims. 3 mismatches and 1 evenly matched fight.

Edit: We got a nice KO in the final fight of the prelims. Main card is up next.

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Remaining fights:
 
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having a wild morning... basically broken even due to tons of random dogs hitting. motoya was my biggest play sadly
 
Horiguchi - 6u @1,33
Horiguchi + Ougikubo - 1u @4,99
 
dare I say I like this card for betting???



hokamura -200 is playable. his strength of schedule is very strong, and he's only lost close fights to top guys. his opponent has largely fought middling competition -- and has lost most of those fights.

shoko sato at +140 is playable

kiichi kunimoto at +600 is ridiculous. he's by far the best MMA fighter/grappler tanabe has fought

ryogo takahashi has only been losing close fights to top guys in ONE. he's the right side at +odds

satoshi kamiyama is getting thrown an absolute bone here. has to be playable at -115.

while i don't like the style matchup, (edit: roberto) satoshi feels like he should be more favoured than -225.
 
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EndlessCritic said:
satoshi kamiyama is getting thrown an absolute bone here. has to be playable at -115.

while i don't like the style matchup, satoshi feels like he should be more favoured than -225.
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It is effectively a fight between a young HW with a massive size advantage, whose twin brother (Tsuyoshi Sudario) is the best HW in Japan, and a MW kicker that might have some BJJ?

I didn't think Satoshi even looked bad in any of those 3 losses, just inexperienced, and was a little too willing to accept being placed on his backfoot by opponents with lots of professional experience.

Theres no way to know for sure but I would be surprised if he dropped this one. Satoshi's opener was a system play for me and theres still value, given the fight dynamics, up to -200 imo.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
It is effectively a fight between a young HW with a massive size advantage, whose twin brother (Tsuyoshi Sudario) is the best HW in Japan, and a MW kicker that might have some BJJ?

I didn't think Satoshi even looked bad in any of those 3 losses, just inexperienced, and was a little too willing to accept being placed on his backfoot by opponents with lots of professional experience.

Theres no way to know for sure but I would be surprised if he dropped this one. Satoshi's opener was a system play for me and theres still value, given the fight dynamics, up to -200 imo.
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sorry, to be clear, i was referring to roberto satoshi for -225 against ktaro.
 
I'm on Yu Ri Shim as a sizeable dog. She seems scrappy and Rena is a bit of a flake imo.
 
The line on the Yu Ri Shim/Rena bout dropped from +315 to +240 on my book. Hmm....
 
Chihiro Suzuki at plus money vs 41 year old Masanori Kanehara, is his ground game that bad?
 
Shelter said:
Chihiro Suzuki at plus money vs 41 year old Masanori Kanehara, is his ground game that bad?
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He's been taken down and Kanehara likes to grapple is I guess what people are thinking. If you're giving me a 24 year old KO artist against a 41 year old as a dog I'm taking it.

People are always fading Suzuki for some reason. I got him at fucking 4.0 against Karamov after he'd already knocked out Patricio Pitbull.



Also I am continuing my tradition of throwing money at Shinobu Ota. It'll work one day.
 
Kanehara just outgrappled Kleber. How the fuck is he the dog here? While I will never forgive Kanehara for getting clowned by Maeda, he is the right side at +odds.

Nakahara +160 is an easy play. He's a good fighter.

Appreciate they're ripoffs but played Kim at -325 and Makoto at -450. Would be shocked if either loses.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Appreciate they're ripoffs but played Kim at -325 and Makoto at -450. Would be shocked if either loses.
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If Makoto doesn't get the fight to the ground he is going to get knocked out. His opponent Jung Hyun Lee is a very good striker, great athleticism, and fights with a lot of confidence.

clear dog or pass

 
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UFCIsNOTRigged said:
If Makoto doesn't get the fight to the ground he is going to get knocked out. His opponent Jung Hyun Lee is a very good striker, great athleticism, and fights with a lot of confidence.

clear dog or pass

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Crazier things have happened. But come on. Knocking out a guy with a 4-8 record is hardly impressive. He lost to Climaco who is not a top level guy.

What can I say. I found Makoto's performance against Horiguchi to be ultra impressive. Makoto displayed in that fight that he's arguably top 10 in the world at 125. At 23 years old, he's still growing with every fight.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Crazier things have happened. But come on. Knocking out a guy with a 4-8 record is hardly impressive. He lost to Climaco who is not a top level guy.

What can I say. I found Makoto's performance against Horiguchi to be ultra impressive. Makoto displayed in that fight that he's arguably top 10 in the world at 125. At 23 years old, he's still growing with every fight.
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Climaco is decent and that was as close of a fight for UD. It was his first big step up too and he's also ultra young
 
EndlessCritic said:
Crazier things have happened. But come on. Knocking out a guy with a 4-8 record is hardly impressive. He lost to Climaco who is not a top level guy.

What can I say. I found Makoto's performance against Horiguchi to be ultra impressive. Makoto displayed in that fight that he's arguably top 10 in the world at 125. At 23 years old, he's still growing with every fight.
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The knockout was impressive imo because of the opponents frame, they are enormous for a 125er, and Lee still knocked them out with a single punch. The reason it matters in this spot imo is Makoto has never really had had striking defense to begin with and is now, for potentially the first time, facing an opponent who can really make him pay for it. This is the wrong spot to be laying massive chalk on a favorite in.

I'm not talking Lee up here because he is a dog I am interested in backing. There is a very real chance imo he beats Makoto. I understand wanting to back a fighter you are a fan of, nothing wrong with that, but if you can cash-out the play for a small loss it may be worth considering.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Kanehara just outgrappled Kleber. How the fuck is he the dog here? While I will never forgive Kanehara for getting clowned by Maeda, he is the right side at +odds.

Nakahara +160 is an easy play. He's a good fighter.

Appreciate they're ripoffs but played Kim at -325 and Makoto at -450. Would be shocked if either loses.
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Kanehara is 41 facing a 24 year old one shot killer. He does have a path to victory but he needs to fight the perfect fight imo.

I took Suzuki at pick em. If he loses he won big for me against Karamov so I'll forgive him.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Kanehara is 41 facing a 24 year old one shot killer. He does have a path to victory but he needs to fight the perfect fight imo.

I took Suzuki at pick em. If he loses he won big for me against Karamov so I'll forgive him.
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sorry. i'm too emotionally invested in this one.

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Masanori Kanehara's 15 year revenge story

Masanori Kanehara is fighting Chihiro Suzuki for the Rizin featherweight title tonight / tomorrow morning. For most in the MMA world, this amounts to a completely irrelevant fight. But for anyone who has followed Kanehara's career, this fight is 15 years in the making. When Pride folded in...
forums.sherdog.com forums.sherdog.com
 
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