It is effectively a fight between a young HW with a massive size advantage, whose twin brother (
Tsuyoshi Sudario) is the best HW in Japan, and a MW kicker that might have some BJJ?
I didn't think Satoshi even looked bad in any of those 3 losses, just inexperienced, and was a little too willing to accept being placed on his backfoot by opponents with lots of professional experience.
Theres no way to know for sure but I would be surprised if he dropped this one. Satoshi's opener was a system play for me and theres still value, given the fight dynamics, up to -200 imo.