Road to UFC, betting thread ▆▇██

[DabanggData]

Road to UFC, betting thread



https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/promotions/4353-road-to-ufc-rufc

2023, Season 2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Road_to_UFC_(2023)

Saturday 05.27.2023 at 06:00 AM ET
U.S. Broadcast: UFC Fight Pass
Promotion: Road to UFC
Venue: UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
Location: Shanghai, China
Enclosure: Cage
MMA Bouts: 5

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/road-to-ufc-1:-shanghai

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/101112-road-to-ufc-shanghai
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/73827

Road To UFC Season 2 will once again feature men's flyweight, bantamweight, featherweight, and lightweight divisions. Participating athletes in Season 1 came from China, Korea, Japan, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, and India, and in Season 2, the athletes are expected to come from an even broader list of countries. To provide additional opportunities for MMA prospects, there will also be one non-tournament bout on each card, for a total of five bouts on each event. The opening round of Road To UFC Season 2 will take place on May 27 and 28. All rounds of the tournament will take place in front of live audiences, with location and venue details announced in advance of each event. The finals are expected to take place as featured bouts on a UFC Fight Night Asia event in the 4th quarter of 2023, at which time UFC contracts will be awarded to each of the four divisions' winners.

Road to UFC is a 2023 UFC MMA event series in which top Asian MMA prospects compete in a tournament to win UFC contracts. It features four divisions—flyweight, bantamweight, featherweight and lightweight—each for which eight fighters compete in a "win-and-advance" tournament format. The tournament winner for each division is awarded a UFC contract. Each event in the series is to feature five bouts including one non-tournament bout. The opening quarterfinal round of the tournament is to be held across two days, May 27-28, 2023 at UFC Performance Institute Shanghai, with two five-bout events for each day for a total of 10 bouts per day.

May 27 Sat 2023 - Road to UFC 1: Shanghai
05:00 AM
27501
Sang Won Kim
+300
27502
Keisuke Sasu
-400
05:00 AM
27505
Juong Hyun Lee
+300
27506
Mark Climaco
-400
05:00 AM
27509
Wuziazibieke Jiahefu
+600
27510
Zha Yi
-850
05:00 AM
27513
Rei Tsuruya
-900
27514
Ronal Siahaan
+600
05:00 AM
27517
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
+200
27518
Topnoi Kiwram
-250
05:00 AM
27521
Kai Lu
+165
27522
Kaiwen Li
-205
05:00 AM
27525
Sumit Kumar
+300
27526
Sung Guk Choi
-400
05:00 AM
27529
Yibugele .... age 33
+116
27530
Kouya Kanda
-146
05:00 AM
27533
Jiniushiyue
-160
27534
Billy Pasulatan
+130
05:00 AM
27537
Taiyilake Nueraji
+226
27538
Han Seul Kim
-286

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/road-to-ufc-1:-shanghai

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=road+to+ufc+predictions








Edit:

I took Nyamjargal Tumendemberel +190

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...kiwram-lucky-left-vs-nyamjargal-tumendemberel

 

[Stat_Collector]

MAX BET 100 FOR 130+

Billy Pasulatan +130
Higher finish rate.

Billy Pasulatan ("Bruce Lee") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

his opponent fought in lower skilled regionals.

Jiniushiyue ("Little King Kong") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

last two opponents went the distance with a combined record of 5-8

130+ likely will flip after tonight.



Edit: one pride is not the same as one fc

 

[BigSteve]

MAX BET 100 FOR 130+

Billy Pasulatan +130
Higher finish rate.

Billy Pasulatan ("Bruce Lee") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

his opponent fought in lower skilled regionals.

Jiniushiyue ("Little King Kong") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

last two opponents went the distance with a combined record of 5-8

130+ likely will flip after tonight.



Edit: one pride is not the same as one fc

Did you know Billy was a SW, fighting a dude that has fought at BW a bunch of times? Both regionals are bad, depends if you rate Indonesia or China higher. At least China has a decent UFC presence now. Jinushiyue also fought the best opponent on both records in Zhifa and made it to dec up a class.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Did you know Billy was a SW, fighting a dude that has fought at BW a bunch of times? Both regionals are bad, depends if you rate Indonesia or China higher. At least China has a decent UFC presence now. Jinushiyue also fought the best opponent on both records in Zhifa and made it to dec up a class.

I dont see weight being a big issue in the smaller weight classes like i do in the heavies. These guys are small and skinny. Two inch difference in height.

I don't rate either higher. But Indonesia mma has a lot of thai land muay thai influence.

I just like Billy style. He avenged his lost. And he's fought guys who were finished less and stopped them.


Zhifa has a late finish on a 3-7 opponent , who lost in r2 against a guy with 0-0 record. Dec win on a 2-4. Zhifa is a can beater, not a solid fighter by no means.


Both of these guys are not beating the best competition but i got to go by recent performances.

in 2022 and 2021. Bill has the high activity , fighting 3x in 2022 , Jiniushiyue has 1 fight in all of 2022, and a flat performance if you cant beat a low tier opponent with several ko losses in r2.

Swap opponents, And Billy wins in ko. True or False?

Lastly the fame is on Billy's side as he has a higher online presence

Billy 'Bruce Lee' Pasulatan (@billypasulatan07) | Instagram

吉牛史约 (@jiniushiyue) | Instagram

It may seem like a minor detail, but i see this as a ambitious trait, a fighter who cares about his media presence and wants recognition is a nice trait in the regionals.

lastly he's pulling off flashy moves that take talent. Jiniushiyue isn't pulling off these kinds of moves in fights.

I just think Billy is the slicker fighter with more power.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

MAX BET 100 FOR 130+

Billy Pasulatan +130
Higher finish rate.

Billy Pasulatan ("Bruce Lee") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

his opponent fought in lower skilled regionals.

Jiniushiyue ("Little King Kong") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

last two opponents went the distance with a combined record of 5-8

130+ likely will flip after tonight.



Edit: one pride is not the same as one fc

Only thing to note with Billy is that he's really a strawweight.

 

[BigSteve]

I dont see weight being a big issue in the smaller weight classes like i do in the heavies. These guys are small and skinny. Two inch difference in height.

I don't rate either higher. But Indonesia mma has a lot of thai land muay thai influence.

I just like Billy style. He avenged his lost. And he's fought guys who were finished less and stopped them.


Zhifa has a late finish on a 3-7 opponent , who lost in r2 against a guy with 0-0 record. Dec win on a 2-4. Zhifa is a can beater, not a solid fighter by no means.


Both of these guys are not beating the best competition but i got to go by recent performances.

in 2022 and 2021. Bill has the high activity , fighting 3x in 2022 , Jiniushiyue has 1 fight in all of 2022, and a flat performance if you cant beat a low tier opponent with several ko losses in r2.

Swap opponents, And Billy wins in ko. True or False?

Lastly the fame is on Billy's side as he has a higher online presence

Billy 'Bruce Lee' Pasulatan (@billypasulatan07) | Instagram

吉牛史约 (@jiniushiyue) | Instagram

It may seem like a minor detail, but i see this as a ambitious trait, a fighter who cares about his media presence and wants recognition is a nice trait in the regionals.

lastly he's pulling off flashy moves that take talent. Jiniushiyue isn't pulling off these kinds of moves in fights.

I just think Billy is the slicker fighter with more power.

I have to give it to you, you are great at manifesting confidence in your picks in unique ways. After taping I thought Billy was the more explosive and athletic
guy for sure, Jiniushiyue seemed cleaner and more technical. The weight class disparity and lack of tape for Jiniushiyue put me off.

If you have found any of his fights other than the last one send them my way.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I have to give it to you, you are great at manifesting confidence in your picks in unique ways. After taping I thought Billy was the more explosive and athletic
guy for sure, Jiniushiyue seemed cleaner and more technical. The weight class disparity and lack of tape for Jiniushiyue put me off.

If you have found any of his fights other than the last one send them my way.

do you really need to see the fight to know that Billy is clearly winning and beating the better competition ? I get you want to make an informed decision . but for 130+ and the guy who can hit harder and is the local regional champ. What more do you want from a 130+ dog?

I have 1 unit, that’s really all i care to potentially lose. i have enough info to make that shot. The worst case scenario is Billy gets grounded to the 3rd. I just see Billy being sharper cause he’s fighting better opponents who are challenging him more.

When a fighter hand picks weak competitors, it’s because he’s looking to scam his way to the top for money.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

View attachment 984018 View attachment 984019



do you really need to see the fight to know that Billy is clearly winning and beating the better competition ? I get you want to make an informed decision . but for 130+ and the guy who can hit harder and is the local regional champ. What more do you want from a 130+ dog?

I have 1 unit, that’s really all i care to potentially lose. i have enough info to make that shot. The worst case scenario is Billy gets grounded to the 3rd. I just see Billy being sharper cause he’s fighting better opponents who are challenging him more.

When a fighter hand picks weak competitors, it’s because he’s looking to scam his way to the top for money.

Not really in China. Chinese matchmaking is random as fuck, I don't think the fighters have a lot of say in it. You hardly ever see anyone with a schedule that makes sense.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Only thing to note with Billy is that he's really a strawweight.

At 5”6 he can fight at 125lb , he’s taller than Dj. its just not that big a deal, the difference between ww to mw to lhw to hw these weight classes separated by 15lb -20lb

These lighter weight guys are dehydrated fighting that low, he should be much more natural for his size. There is a handful of guys who start low and end their careers often in two weight classes heavier.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Not really in China. Chinese matchmaking is random as fuck, I don't think the fighters have a lot of say in it. You hardly ever see anyone with a schedule that makes sense.

it’s easy to cancel a fight you dont want. they make him an offer and he cancels. He may not be able to pick the losers, but he has full control to avoid the winners. Chinese ufc fighters have records that are padded like this all the time.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

it’s easy to cancel a fight you dont want. they make him an offer and he cancels. He may not be able to pick the losers, but he has full control to avoid the winners. Chinese ufc fighters have records that are padded like this all the time.

With all due respect dude that's just not how Chinese MMA works.

 

[Stat_Collector]

With all due respect dude that's just not how Chinese MMA works.

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...1-2021-harbin-bank-chengdu-charity-tournament


look up all his events, the match making is awful. These mma shows are meant to stack records. it’s quite evident.

Chinese matchmakers are in the business of stacking records to get there fighters to the big shows faster. Even if it’s not his choice, the people who manage his career are pitting him against weak fighters. That is still going to inadvertently make him weak.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...1-2021-harbin-bank-chengdu-charity-tournament


look up all his events, the match making is awful. These mma shows are meant to stack records. it’s quite evident.

Chinese matchmakers are in the business of stacking records to get there fighters to the big shows faster. Even if it’s not his choice, the people who manage his career are pitting him against weak fighters. That is still going to inadvertently make him weak.

It's the promotions not the fighters. Not saying the record isn't padded, but it's probably not due to him ducking people. The mantra in China is just to fight often and without too much regard to who against.

 

[BigSteve]

View attachment 984018 View attachment 984019



do you really need to see the fight to know that Billy is clearly winning and beating the better competition ? I get you want to make an informed decision . but for 130+ and the guy who can hit harder and is the local regional champ. What more do you want from a 130+ dog?

I have 1 unit, that’s really all i care to potentially lose. i have enough info to make that shot. The worst case scenario is Billy gets grounded to the 3rd. I just see Billy being sharper cause he’s fighting better opponents who are challenging him more.

When a fighter hand picks weak competitors, it’s because he’s looking to scam his way to the top for money.

those positive records mean nothing to me when they are amassed in Indonesia. Same as the Indo dude that was a favourite over a Ukranian grappler in the recent Cage Warriors. Hes fighting positive record fighters on the same regional scene, when you see them fight on tape its truly sad.

 

[johno]

Anybody know if we will get lines for these fights in Australia?

 

[Stat_Collector]

those positive records mean nothing to me when they are amassed in Indonesia. Same as the Indo dude that was a favourite over a Ukranian grappler in the recent Cage Warriors. Hes fighting positive record fighters on the same regional scene, when you see them fight on tape its truly sad.

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/235751-yoga-prabowo

ok how is that positive?

Both of these guys were less experienced .

look up the fight with Jeka vs Bin Kin
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/fighters/87166-won-bin-ki

i use the same logic, Bin Ki could not finish a negative record opponent till rnd 3.

Jeka being from indonesia meant he was a better muay thai fighter. Jeka also had a bigger following and was training at the ufc performance center with Mason Jones.

Billy also training at the ufc performance center. Billy is also a better muay thai fighter and a better finisher.

It’s not acceptable for a favorite to have his last two fights end in decision, that is my main argument. Do you know why? Because it decreases his chances of having methods to win down to a decision. which means he has to put on a performance for 15 mins.

Billy can ko or win via decision with sig strikes.


There is no reason for Billy not to be the favorite when he can finish fights. The ukraine fighter you brought up atleast finished those weak opponents and went the distance with a more talented fighter from east europe.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I played Nyamjargal Tumendemberel at +160.

He is a big athletic grappler, great scrambler and back taker, that has knocked out two of his six opponents with the first combination he landed.

He should be a massive favorite.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I played Nyamjargal Tumendemberel at +160.

He is a big athletic grappler, great scrambler and back taker, that has knocked out two of his six opponents with the first combination he landed.

He should be a massive favorite.

A Massive favorite? Have you watched tape on Kiwram? The guy is a savage and is far more experienced. His kicks are monstrous

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

A Massive favorite? Have you watched tape on Kiwram? The guy is a savage and is far more experienced. His kicks are monstrous

Yes, Nyamjargal Tumendemberel should be a massive favorite imo in this specific matchup, he excels in all the areas that have given Topnoi trouble his entire MMA career.

Topnoi is an experienced kickboxer, there is no denying that, but he has big defensive grappling holes that often result in him being controlled for entire rounds. That is a particularly bad problem to have against a good back taker and scrambler like Tumendemberel with a relatively diverse submission arsenal. Tumendemberel is also going to enjoy a pretty significant edge in physicality, as the bigger and stronger fighter, who to my eye looks at least a weight class bigger than Topnoi. Tumendemberel also is going to have significantly heavier hands than Topnoi who I have seen lose striking matches to grapplers and does not have particularly good durability.


I like Topnoi just as much as everyone else, but this is as bad a stylistic matchup as the UFC could have given him.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Yes, Nyamjargal Tumendemberel should be a massive favorite imo in this specific matchup, he excels in all the areas that have given Topnoi trouble his entire MMA career.

Topnoi is an experienced kickboxer, there is no denying that, but he has big defensive grappling holes that often result in him being controlled for entire rounds. That is a particularly bad problem to have against a good back taker and scrambler like Tumendemberel with a relatively diverse submission arsenal. Tumendemberel is also going to enjoy a pretty significant edge in physicality, as the bigger and stronger fighter, who to my eye looks at least a weight class bigger than Topnoi. Tumendemberel also is going to have significantly heavier hands than Topnoi who I have seen lose striking matches to grapplers and does not have particularly good durability.


I like Topnoi just as much as everyone else, but this is as bad a stylistic matchup as the UFC could have given him

Tumen has been crushing cans on the Mongolian regional scene and I dunno if he can get topnoi down or if he can eat his shots