Road to UFC, betting thread ▆▇██

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Tumen has been crushing cans on the Mongolian regional scene and I dunno if he can get topnoi down or if he can eat his shots

I was able to find footage of five of Tumen’s six professional fights and I would only characterize his first opponent, who was a competent grappler, as a “can” or gimme type matchup. His opponents have mostly been other young, albeit inexperienced, fighters but I am satisfied that the grappling skills he displayed will be more than enough to defeat and likely finish Topnoi.

I have seen Topnoi be taken down by singles, doubles, and throws by opponents of varying skill levels. The consistent theme is Topnoi getting taken down, exposing his back to get up, and having no ability to do anything but survive, sometimes, when his back is taken. Also its not as if Tumen has no striking ability. He may not have the kickboxing experience of Topnoi, but he is the more dangerous puncher facing a less durable opponent that has looked for a way-out in fights before. For these reasons this is imo a very stylistically unfavorable matchup for Topnoi and I think he loses it a large majority of the time.

I like what I have seen of Topnoi as a person and respect his abilities tremendously as a fighter but I think this is a clear spot which is why I bet Turem at +160.

 

[Stat_Collector]

@BigSteve



dont know if you seen this one.He's the guy in red. But yeah, he''s got decent hands, and he likes to wrestle in his other fight by sitting in full guard, similar to a lot of wrestlers who lay and pray. He's a very inactive fighter but I've seen Billy eat shots before with horrendous boxing defense.

He did get out grappled by Zhifa and I know Bill likes to go for a more bjj heavy style of doing back takes and trying to pass the guard.

it does feel like a 50/50 , i think i got some value at 130+ but i don't like either guy at minus odds. its definitely a pickem.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Bahatebole + Chris Hoffman

two good duo for a parlay.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Bahatebole + Chris Hoffman

two good duo for a parlay.

Bahatebole has never impressed me in LFA , I thought his last one was a robbery, is his opponent shit?

 

[Thesnake101]

Bahatebole has never impressed me in LFA , I thought his last one was a robbery, is his opponent shit?

17-8 guy who's lost to the more relevant guys he's fought and recently got finished by Saragih - I'd say he's garbage.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

17-8 guy who's lost to the more relevant guys he's fought and recently got finished by Saragih - I'd say he's garbage.

Just got caught in that fight IIRC and Saragih can crack even though he's not that good.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Just got caught in that fight IIRC and Saragih can crack even though he's not that good.

This is a good style matchup for him, Bin ki is a striker, and he's lost to some garbage opponents. Bahatebole does decent when its striker vs striker.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

This is a good style matchup for him, Bin ki is a striker, and he's lost to some garbage opponents. Bahatebole does decent when its striker vs striker.

One thing I would maybe consider is that I don't think Bahatebole has ever fought at 155, so it might be worth waiting to see how he looks at the weigh in.

 

[Stat_Collector]

One thing I would maybe consider is that I don't think Bahatebole has ever fought at 155, so it might be worth waiting to see how he looks at the weigh in.

He's training with Burns and Shakvat last couple of weeks. If he still loses to Bin Ki, he should just retire.

 

[BigSteve]

@BigSteve



dont know if you seen this one.He's the guy in red. But yeah, he''s got decent hands, and he likes to wrestle in his other fight by sitting in full guard, similar to a lot of wrestlers who lay and pray. He's a very inactive fighter but I've seen Billy eat shots before with horrendous boxing defense.

He did get out grappled by Zhifa and I know Bill likes to go for a more bjj heavy style of doing back takes and trying to pass the guard.

it does feel like a 50/50 , i think i got some value at 130+ but i don't like either guy at minus odds. its definitely a pickem.

I didnt, I appreciate the footage. Seems as if the uploader deleted it, someone is hiding something.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I didnt, I appreciate the footage. Seems as if the uploader deleted it, someone is hiding something.

Not someone, something

#gamblenati

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Some of the odds on this card are way off.

Sumit Kumar ITD is +1100.

This guy is a violent finisher that slams his opponents on their head, and wrenches on their necks with a high elbow guillotine as they attempt to get back to their feet. He does wing his punches with his chin up in the air and his defense goes out the window when he has a guy hurt, but when he connects the impact is significant.

I wouldn't pick him to win, largely due to the level of opponent he has faced which is extremely low, but he finishes his opponent a lot more than 8.33% of the time which is what the betting line implies.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Staying up to watch road to ufc.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Staying up to watch road to ufc.

Starts at 11am here in the UK. Perfect time for a change

 

[Stat_Collector]

Starts at 11am here in the UK. Perfect time for a change

6 am est time

i got sleep earlier woke up at 2 am, might as well stay up.

11am at least you can eat out this time.

 

[BigSteve]

fading Sasu in main Kim 350 to win 910

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Only bet I've got is a small one on Lee to beat Climaco, just because I think that as strong as wrestler as Climaco is, if he can lose to Yuma he can lose to a fast improving kid who looks super talented like Lee.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I have Rana in a small sprinkle parlay with my other strong leans.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Tsuyarra/Sihan-UN 1.5-180 for 25
Yi/Jiahufue-OV 1.5+110 for 100
Jung Hyun Lee+300 for 25
Sasu/Kim-OV 2.5-170 for 25

 

[guesswhoseback]

Can someone please PM me a ticket for this?