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TUF 23 finale - JJ vs gadelha II - Las Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 18, 2016.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  2. Xuh Silver Belt

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    I think the odds are great for Claudia who is the most skilled all-round female fighter IMO but I feel like I can't bet her considering:

    5 rounds (cardio adv Joanna)
    Nova Uniao post USADA record
    Claudia post USADA & weight rules (looks smaller: massive weight cutter and was clearly also a massive roider in the past. Style was always to use size & strength to hold opponents down).

    If I've a lot of money in my accts come fight time though I'll probably bet a bit on her anyway.......
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    with ya. gadelha prefight, maybe live bet JJ.
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Know a lot are on Claudia, but JJ dec and round 4 and 5 for me. Don't foresee too many tds landed for Claudia, and she will get outstruck on the feet even if she holds her own
     
  5. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    In a five round 5, I would favour Joanna. She has the proven cardio, greatly improved TDD and much better stand up than Gadelha. Gadhela may have won the first (I don't) but she just really held Joanna against the cage with her head in Joanna's crotch. She was really tired in the third and was dropped in the third. Post USADA nova uniao should get faded imo. I think Joanna wins by late stoppage or UD. Gadelha at +200 or better odds is gonna get hit though.
     
  6. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    She was dropped in the first not third. Cant edit.
     
  7. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Wasn't Gadehla/Aguilar post USADA? I could be wrong. Anyway, I love Gadehla DEC and Split DEC lines

    I wish I could find the write up I did for this weeks ago
     
  8. kenCs Couches, couches, couches which one should I pick? Banned

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    I don't know.
    She looked dominant and she won by striking with Ag. Aguilar was coming into her own in the second and third and IIRC she was chewing up her lead leg. May have even won if it werent for her "octagon" jitters as she claimed she had in the first round.
     
  9. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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  10. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Agree with you guys do like JJ here but do reckon claudia will get her down or hold her for the first round or two am hoping makes her line playable, also feel jj r4/r5 maybe worth a stab, she may better knock down a gassed claudia at that point.

    Wonder which version of pearson turns up, not seen much of will brooks from bellator but I think he has that wrestling background and pearson can at times have decent ttd, should be a good one too.

    choi vs tavares, I like the korean superboy here should be the better striker although tavares has that power I reckon chois hand speeds, accuracy and chin and youth will be better, choi also been @ a jiu jitsu gym when he was a kid and pretty much shrugged off sam sicila with ease.

    Jake and lee should be great for live betting wise :)
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    My leans for the Choi/Tavares and Mathews/Lee fight are astronomically strong. Praying we get lines sooner than the week of the events like it has been for the past few so we can have safe discussions.
     
  12. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    when i cilck that link, it takes you to your post which i'll copy paste here..

    ----

    I've already posted this, but I think the lines on Gadelha are all off. I think this could/should be a coin flip by fight time. Their 1st fight was razor close (I thought Gadelha won it). And although JJ has been impressive in her fights since that fight, they were all great stylistic opportunities. Carla and Penne are both small for the weight class, are grapplers who couldn't take her down, and have below average standup. Valerie is big for the weight class, but almost too big, which has been shown by her move up to 125. She only had a couple good rounds in her. Plus JJ is/was the better striker anyway.

    Gadelha has only had one fight since the one with JJ, but it was an absolute destruction of Aguilar who was highly regarded in the weight class.

    With all that said, nothing has really changed for me since their first fight. They have both looked amazing. I personally view this as a coin flip. Maybe very slight lean JJ cus she's champ and wins the trash talk/mental game.

    Okay. Now that I say this a coin flip, Gadelha is sitting at +190. Furthermore, the fight going to a DEC is like -250, but Gadehla DEC is +350. Since JJ hasn't lost yet, I think she'll lose by DEC if she does lose.

    I love the Gadelha DEC +350. I wouldn't be surprised if the odds were even by fight time adnd Gadehla DEC was like +180. So I think this is a very close fight that is going to a decision. This is when I bring up that this is Poland vs Brazil. This fight is being held during the three event weekend. There are 4 Brazilians fighting for a title that weekend (RDA, Gadehla, Aldo, Nunes). I have a very strong feeling the crowd will most likely be more pro brazilian than pro Poland/JJ.

    Now on top of everything I just said, Gadehla Split DEC is sitting at +1000... Enough said. I really like Gadehla ML, DEC, split DEC at current odds.

    JJ NSC -148 is nice, too


    This fight is only 5 weeks away, btw. Not too long

    ----

    maybe it's page settings or something? like i show 50 posts per page if you haven't changed that
     
  14. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    ^ pretty much feel exactly the same
     
  15. TimCoreCombat Green Belt

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    I like Claudia as well at those odds. I think JJ is great but should not be nearly that high of a favorite.
     
  16. Ballsaque Yellow Card Yellow Card

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    Well it is your write up, so that would make sense
     
  17. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    It was at least 2 weeks ago and thoughts can change especially in a post that big. Was just saying I still felt the same
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    hehe i figured, but still chuckled just the same (not poking fun whatsoever)
     
  19. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    haha go for it. I could've worded it a little better
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    haha nah he/i are just messing
     
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