TUF 23 finale - JJ vs gadelha II - Las Vegas

[EzFlyer]

Why the hell is Amanda at +350 ? Line is OFF.

While a cursory check shows a 1-1 record, she actually has 11 amateur fights, winning 8 of them, most ITD.

Tatiana has just had 5 fights in total. Amanda has had 13.

This is WMMA.

I will probably join you on this but but I do think Tatiana is legit

 

[ChoKuRei]

How do you guys feel about tavares vs choi? Im seriously thinkin about bettingthe house on tavares, he has simply beat the superior competition....choi hasnt really beat anyone of significance

 

[Joseph Budden]

How do you guys feel about tavares vs choi? Im seriously thinkin about bettingthe house on tavares, he has simply beat the superior competition....choi hasnt really beat anyone of significance

Choi by round one KO

Also, I'll be on Cooper. Tatianna -400 seems way too long, agree w whoever pointed that out.

Think I'll be in all TUF dogs actually. Probably small stabs on Hendricks and Khalil

 

[kenCs]

I put that Choi fight ending in a submission in a parlay. Quite confident.

 

[oliverinsix]

How many of you are betting against Choi? I can see Tavares using his grappling to dominate the fight but I can't imagine Choi being unable to clip him a few times and Choi has been doing BJJ since he was 12 or something IIRC. Currently my Choi Jingliang parlay is my biggest play on this card but interested to hear others opinions.

 

[Ukram]

It feels like Tavares sub in r1 or decision but I still prefer choi to win via ko.

Tavares is good and can win but all that muscle tends to make him slow down and gas in the later on rounds and Choi is like some sniper he has also handled himself well against a top wrestler in the past and showed good tdd.

 

[oliverinsix]

It feels like Tavares sub in r1 or decision but I still prefer choi to win via ko.

Tavares is good and can win but all that muscle tends to make him slow down and gas in the later on rounds and Choi is like some sniper he has also handled himself well against a top wrestler in the past and showed good tdd.

Not sure if it's been mentioned but there was an interview he did awhile back where he talked about how he really dedicated himself to learning the art of counter striking. Here's an excerpt from that interview

"A lot of people mistake my ability to counter-punch on pure athleticism and my reaction speed. They say my accuracy is just a talent I was born with, but they are very wrong. It is very difficult to punch reactionary without setting up the positioning of my opponent. People have to understand that my whole movement and the way I stalk my opponents with my footwork is creating the opportunity of the counter punch before I even throw a punch. You must predict the opponents movement if you want to land the perfect punch. That is the only way you can be truly accurate.

If I have to make a comparison, I am like a sniper waiting for the exact moment for my opponent to start putting his finger on the trigger. I force my opponents into doing that. Every movement I do is setup to create a route where I will be able to start hunting him. By the time they know they are in a trap, it is too late. Only fans who understand high level striking will be able to appreciate the subtle things I do in the cage."

Edit - Link to translated responses. Source link inside.

http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/d...-out-i-plan-to-submit-thiago-tavares.3273603/

 

[Ukram]

Disappointment to find jake and lee are on the early prelims (2nd fight on card) that fight had live bet written all over it and should have been main card or deep into main prelims, instead ufc put half unknown or tuf debut fighters on the main prelims and main card !

Watched last tuf and boy is Cooper and tatiana going to be a fun fight both well skilled in all areas cooper showing her sub skills and tatiana with that wrestling and great ground game also, the bookies are sided with tatiana but coopers line is way off, may hit a flyer on her sub if the lines good.

I re-watched jj/claudia last few fights and its going to be another close battle I reckon.
Claudia makes fights close, good take downs and grappling against the cage and she will look for subs especially that rear naked choke but she has 2 issues which still appear to be not fully addressed, first is cardio she puts a frantic pace early in the rounds and slows down late in each round to the point she loses her footing and balance even (check that jj ko in 1st fight) she also gassed again in the later on rounds and showed poor footing in her last fight, by r3 she was much slower also, her other issue is that lead leg she sticks out in her last fight jessica was able to land many leg kicks slowing her down and making her not commit full power to her punches.

JJ has that world class MT background and is great at finding opponents lead legs and battering them and chipping at it as shown in her last fight also, cardio and pace is better so I imagine she will look good in r4/r5 against an tired claudia if it gets that far, it could still hit decision though since both are stubborn to go down or out. Will hit some flyers on jj r4/r5 soon but like jj su here, let the fade a Brazilian wagon continue !

 

[PuertoRican]

You might be 'missing' the fact that he's washed up, chin is wrecked, etc..

Hehe devils advocate

That fight screams pass to me

Gray layoff
Gray terrible chin
Gray no wins in years
Bruno no striking but maybe could grind with a depleted gray? And who knows with the chin?
Also don't forget gray got out wrestled badly by Yakovlev (granted size a factor)

First cut to 145 is what I was thinking about the most, mixed with his chin issues.

Gray is a decision fighter, so you'll probably be sweating for 15 minutes straight, praying he doesn't get clipped.

 

[YoungScholar]

How many of you are betting against Choi? I can see Tavares using his grappling to dominate the fight but I can't imagine Choi being unable to clip him a few times and Choi has been doing BJJ since he was 12 or something IIRC. Currently my Choi Jingliang parlay is my biggest play on this card but interested to hear others opinions.

I'm with you on DHC. Took him by KO/TKO @ -110 instead of the ML @ -200.

The dude is a special talent. Before joining with the UFC his fights in Deep showed how ridiculously calm he fought in the ring. The big question was if he would perform the same in the octagon and boy if he did. A flawless quick KO in his debut and a masterful performance against Sam Sicilia getting that R1 TKO. He looks and performs as if he's shadowboxing in his room in a completely pressure free environment - It's like his mind was just made for the chaos of fighting. He's one of those guys gifted with a crazy amount of natural power and a knack for selecting the perfect shots for any given situation from his diverse striking arsenal (diverse hands and knees at least ). From what I've seen he does have a solid TDD (unlike Brian Ortega who in turn made Tavares look like an All American wrassler) and a decent/good groundgame (still a lot of question marks here).

I see him either dusting off Tavares with a knee or an uppercut up the middle after hurting him with his hands and having Tavares shoot in for a desperate TD. My biggest worry is Tavares getting control on the ground after getting dropped but the amount of power DHC has on his punches (standing and GnP) makes me feel fairly confident this is not too likely.

Depending on the price I do agree on Tavares R1 sub being the best bet if you're going to play that side of it - I don't see him getting continous TDs and grinding out a decision here.

 

[thesharktank]

Im a Superboy Superfan, but this feels like a prospect humbling fight. Tavares has all the tools to grind his way to a decision or to find a sub along the way. If Choi wins its going to be early and in impressive fashion. I can't see Choi pulling off a close decision.

I think his odd could go up to -190 range by fight time as well, but I still prefer the Choi ITD odds / Tavares Dec play.

 

[Hodge23]

Wow more money coming in on Gadhela, had to take some -110 on JJ

 

[EzFlyer]

Sanchez down to -130? I'm in.

 

[iGnP]

JJ in round 4 and 5 is +1700 and +2000. I guess Claudia could gas in championship rounds and the volume of JJ could overwhelm her for a stoppage. Anyone think it's worth it? For what it's worth, I dont really play long shots like this just for the hell of it, but these bets seem kinda likely (at least more likely than odds indicate)

 

[edole]

JJ in round 4 and 5 is +1700 and +2000. I guess Claudia could gas in championship rounds and the volume of JJ could overwhelm her for a stoppage. Anyone think it's worth it? For what it's worth, I dont really play long shots like this just for the hell of it, but these bets seem kinda likely (at least more likely than odds indicate)

worth a stab imo

 

[edole]

anyone else like the u4.5 in the main event tonight at +200?

I have a feeling that this whole fight is going to be fought in a phone booth -- neither fighter really takes steps backwards

I could see either Claudia hurting JJ at some point and finding a sub, or JJ hurting Claudia and following her to the ground in the middle rounds

 

[iGnP]

anyone else like the u4.5 in the main event tonight at +200?

I have a feeling that this whole fight is going to be fought in a phone booth -- neither fighter really takes steps backwards

I could see either Claudia hurting JJ at some point and finding a sub, or JJ hurting Claudia and following her to the ground in the middle rounds

I mean, it COULD happen. There were a couple of opportunities in the first fight where Claudia could have maybe been in position to get a sub and obviously JJ could have finished the fight at the end of the first. Kinda tough to predict, tho. Claudia could just push JJ against the fence for extended periods of time, too

 

[Gambling Man]

JJ in round 4 and 5 is +1700 and +2000. I guess Claudia could gas in championship rounds and the volume of JJ could overwhelm her for a stoppage. Anyone think it's worth it? For what it's worth, I dont really play long shots like this just for the hell of it, but these bets seem kinda likely (at least more likely than odds indicate)

I like it a lot, although I took the group bet of JJ 3,4 or 5 for +700 on Ladbrokes. If Gadelha gasses then I can see JJ pushing for the finish and being more aggressive than she was against Val.

 

[piglord]

You might be 'missing' the fact that he's washed up, chin is wrecked, etc..

Hehe devils advocate

That fight screams pass to me

Gray layoff
Gray terrible chin
Gray no wins in years
Bruno no striking but maybe could grind with a depleted gray? And who knows with the chin?
Also don't forget gray got out wrestled badly by Yakovlev (granted size a factor)

i cannot see how gray's chin is going to be a factor in this fight. bruno looks like he has no power AND no striking. bruno just looks really fucking bad.

yakovlev is a big, atheltic fighter still in his prime and that fight was competitive until yakovlev landed that big shot. think gray stuffs takedowns and mashes bruno's face with strikes.

 

[thesharktank]

JJ in round 4 and 5 is +1700 and +2000. I guess Claudia could gas in championship rounds and the volume of JJ could overwhelm her for a stoppage. Anyone think it's worth it? For what it's worth, I dont really play long shots like this just for the hell of it, but these bets seem kinda likely (at least more likely than odds indicate)

Stabbed myself at +2000 and +2600 for .25units each. I got on Claudia right before her precipitous drop in odds, but Im really liking JJ at even money. JJs TDD has come a long way since their first fight IMO. As has her experience in 5 rounders and confidence. She should be the favorite here.