UFC 200 - DC vs JJ 2 - Vegas

Status
Not open for further replies.
lots of money coming in on lesner, probably just casuals, but even so Im amazed hunt hasn't hit 1.5 or lower tbh.
 
barrygood1 said:
Gentleman, the time has come to disclose my UFC 200 free pick. Of course it's going to be a dog @ + odds because it's my specialty and the only way to make money in this game is to hit those underdogs that bark loudest.

I've painstakingly capped UFC 200 through the course of the night looking for edges I can exploit for long term +EV. For those interested in all of my picks you contact me directly and I can introduce you to my MMA trial package.

We're gonna lay the benji's on Amanda Nunes to defeat Miesha Tate to crown a new Brazillian Bantamweight champion.

I cap this at -120 Tate and +110 Nunes per Barry's MMA Capping Simulator Model. I've essentially got this fight as literally a pick em and the only reason Nunes is a slight dog is due to her cardio issues. Furthermore, if both fighters had equal cardio I'd have Nunes as a slight fave.

I've been analyzing and dissecting hundreds of MMA lines throughout my professional handicapping career and believe me when I tell you this: the bookies have this line wrong!! By this determination alone one can come to the conclusion that by betting on Amanda Nunes he/she would most likely be a long term winner bettor. It's not as simple as finding a line you think is undervalued as there's other factors that go along with finding +EV spots, but I can't give out all the tricks of the trade or secrets if you will...

So to reiterate Barry's Value Pick for UFC 200:

Amanda Nunes ML +215

I'm the guy who has repeatedly gone on the record to state parlays are "sucker bets and massively -EV" I tell my subscribers and my novice betting pupils if you have to play a parlay then at most stick with a 2 or 3 team parlay. I've gone into great detail why parlays bankrupt most bettors while making the bookies extremely rich. Now because UFC200 is not your ordinary fight card and because I have a bunch of FU money I'm willing to "gamble" with tonight's going to be an exception. This is a way of betting that I do not advocate and it's likely a one n done deal due to the magnitude of tonights card.

On top of my freeplay I'm also adding a thin value parlay that I do recommend tailing. Remember, I'm not going to be offering my free picks on sherdog on a regular basis so keep that in mind. I've worked way too hard and I feel the fruits of my labor have largely been leeched off by those who take my insightful knowledge for granted. Anyways enough blabbering for now, gotta run grab some beer for tonight and pick the gf up from work.

Barry's Parlay pick for UFC 200:

Jim Miller -282
Joe Lauzon +100
Cat Zingao -150
Cain Velasquez -288
Jose Aldo +102

Parlay Odds +1127

- Barry
Click to expand...

I just put a little on Nunes this morning plus as of now have her on some of my Draftkings teams. You really had to do this to me? I feel this overwhelming sense of dread and that maybe I should buy out of my action and take her off my DK teams. Nobody is tailing your picks Barry but now I'm in a conundrum on if I should trust my own capping or buy out and fade yours.

Ugh.
 
Why brock won't win tonight

-Coming back from retirement after 5 years (beyond ring rust)
-Half his stomach was removed, I doubt you recover well from that if ever
-Looked bored with press, media obligations would not pose for fake weigh in pic
-Short notice
-Admitted he is a jacked up white boy
-Training staff admitted brock is not allowed to be hit especially on the face
-Has enough juice to go for 1-3 minutes early in the round, that size and muscle would do that

Coming out of retirement to collect a pay cheque is what this fight is all about, putting him in a cage with recent no1 contender and always in the title mix challenger hunt who has one of the best chins and power @ hw is a just as mismatched as Spider vs DC.
 
UK chaps, what's the best site for livebetting fights?

I've got my most money in 365 and Paddy Power, but still got smaller amounts in most others (I think Stanjames, BetVictor and William Hill mainly). I assume most will offer livebetting but I dunno who is generally best for not switching lines all the time so you can actually get a bet in without it being suspended, plus who tends to be the worst at setting them in play for picking spots where you'll get potentially really good odds on some fighters despite it being a close fight.
 
Brock down to +130. Glad I got in when I did. Looks like you guys might get your wish on even Hunt money.
 
Ukram said:
Why brock won't win tonight

-Coming back from retirement after 5 years (beyond ring rust)
-Half his stomach was removed, I doubt you recover well from that if ever
-Looked bored with press, media obligations would not pose for fake weigh in pic
-Short notice
-Admitted he is a jacked up white boy
-Training staff admitted brock is not allowed to be hit especially on the face
-Has enough juice to go for 1-3 minutes early in the round, that size and muscle would do that

Coming out of retirement to collect a pay cheque is what this fight is all about, putting him in a cage with recent no1 contender and always in the title mix challenger hunt who has one of the best chins and power @ hw is a just as mismatched as Spider vs DC.
Click to expand...

Hunto rd 1 is +160 now. I think he ends it early. Hitting this.
 
I'm not buying the doing this for a paycheck angle on Brock...

He has a big paycheck already. It's called the WWE. I'm sure the money doesn't hurt but he could never fight again and still be more than well off.
 
I think Brock being off 5 yrs has 1 plus, he was in no condition to fight Overeem due to the intestine issue. That may have improved slightly. I totally discount the he's in it for the paycheck. He's rich, he has a lot of pride and ego and reputation. This isn't the ordinary person having a lot of bills fighting for a pay check, it is just a guy getting a big check. Doesn't he live on a farm in Canada? He doesn't seem like a guy who has blown a lot of money - and you know he's earned a lot..

I agree with a lot of the pro Hunt points but not the above 2
 
Dooze said:
UK chaps, what's the best site for livebetting fights?

I've got my most money in 365 and Paddy Power, but still got smaller amounts in most others (I think Stanjames, BetVictor and William Hill mainly). I assume most will offer livebetting but I dunno who is generally best for not switching lines all the time so you can actually get a bet in without it being suspended, plus who tends to be the worst at setting them in play for picking spots where you'll get potentially really good odds on some fighters despite it being a close fight.
Click to expand...

Its erratic at best sometimes for example unibet leave the lines up but over @ bet365 the line is closed for a good minute but this can be reversed in the next fight say.

Just really a good idea to register to many of them and check props and value and live bet windows, but atm I am enjoying having unibet, 888 (same sister site) and bet365 up and just flicking between them. Course much depends which one limits you or stops you from earning more back so you have to change and use which ever one is giving you the best options really.

Course talking in general unibet/888 have live bet from the first fight, most other bookies get it by main prelims or main event only.
 
FFS I have $200 on Nunes R1 +850, and Barry's "Golden ticket" is Nunes ML?. FML
 
iGnP said:
if Brock gets a takedown, i have a hard time seeing Hunt being able to get up. I assume you mean Hunt is gonna KO brock before the td?
Click to expand...

i keep thinking that, but then remember, lesnar hasnt fought in 5 years and took this on short notice.. (i know hunt short notice, too, but he's been actively fighting top hw's)
 
Brock has spoken about how much £££ he is getting in every interview ive seen. If someone offered you millions for a one off fight in a months time even if you are comfortable money wise most would take it.
 
Dusty Trunks said:
I'm not buying the doing this for a paycheck angle on Brock...

He has a big paycheck already. It's called the WWE. I'm sure the money doesn't hurt but he could never fight again and still be more than well off.
Click to expand...

Possible but brock has also had plenty of times to fight for the ufc but the contract was not 'right'.

No idea how much he is getting paid but a million bucks for 5 minutes work has the best ratio ever, even less work then reading and trying to remember his WWE scripts ;)
 
for event props i'm just gonna stab at U3.5 dec +446 hehe. no strong lean on ko's, subs, or decisions.. just think maybe the stage / loud crowd / trigger happy refs, extra energy in the building... could make for some finishes.

we'll see :p
 
And maybe this pay cheque means he wont have to renew his wwe contract.
 
I think it's a mix of both. I highly doubt Brock's sole motivation is money, especially when he took on such a big challenge. But obviously the money plays a factor.
 
Bet365 showing live bet available from main prelims ie 4th fight in (cat/pena) I think from 1am + but please double check as always.
 
Dooze said:
UK chaps, what's the best site for livebetting fights?

I've got my most money in 365 and Paddy Power, but still got smaller amounts in most others (I think Stanjames, BetVictor and William Hill mainly). I assume most will offer livebetting but I dunno who is generally best for not switching lines all the time so you can actually get a bet in without it being suspended, plus who tends to be the worst at setting them in play for picking spots where you'll get potentially really good odds on some fighters despite it being a close fight.
Click to expand...

Only used pp unibet 365 and ladbrokes for lb. 365 my fav followed by ladbrokes. 365 and ladbrokes offer props between rounds too.
 
EzFlyer said:
i keep thinking that, but then remember, lesnar hasnt fought in 5 years and took this on short notice.. (i know hunt short notice, too, but he's been actively fighting top hw's)
Click to expand...
I dont necessarily think the layoff hurts Brock's ability to wrestle. He's been wrestling his whole life, he's prob been juicing since his last stint in the UFC, and Hunt's at a massive size/athleticism disadvantage.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,044
Messages
55,463,559
Members
174,786
Latest member
JoyceOuthw

Share this page

Back
Top