Regarding Jorge and Maia .... Final thoughts:
Going back and watching Jorge, one of the things that you notice is just how damn good his TDD is. Even going back to when he was a '55er and fighting Khabilov ...Not only did he nullify almost every takedown, but he was taking Rustam down!!
The thing is, going back and watching Maia over the last two years, he has taken everyone down with the overwhelming majority of them staying there. Most opposition has looked helpless vs.Maia to be exact. The only fighter to have prolonged success was Rory MacDonald. In the first round Maia did get the TD and he dominated Rory, but after that Rory stayed on the outside using a very long jab that touched Maia up and made it possible for the Canuck to stuff the shots. Sprawling and brawling like Chuck Liddell circa 2003 made it possible for Rory to stay out of the spiderweb. Ultimately by around three Maia was exhausted and Rory smashed him in the later minutes of the fight. Jorge is more similar to Rory then anyone else who Damien Maia has for the last three years.
Jorge has much more in common with Rory ..unlike guys like Carlos Condit and Matt Brown whose straight up Muay Thai stance. allows Maia to shoot right through them. Nevertheless, Jorge is still going to have to fight for his life as Maia has various types of takedowns. The way he weaves his leg around yours like a snake and takes your back is exceptionally proficient. He also has terrific single leg takedown's, lateral drops and will even pull guard and then look for an immediate sweep.
I do believe that Maia will be able to find a way to use his size advantage to drag Gamebred to the mat Once he gets the ATT fighter down Jorge is going to feel like he has fallen into quicksand with a pit of vipers. Worst case scenario for Maia is that he locks up a body-triangle and has control for the entire round. Best case scenario is that he finds an early submission. If Jorge can't make Maia work hard for the takedown in round one then he ishe is not going to take a enough out of the Brazilians gas tank to stop the same exact thing from happening in the second frame.
That said, if he can survive to the third it will get very interesting as I mentioned earlier.
That's the other thing, Maia slows down exponentially. IMO Jorge r3 is a really good prop bet. Another play I like is the draw. .. Maia could the takedown in round one and keeps Jorge on his back for a a 10-8 with Jorge winning the next two 10-9 for a draw. Alternatively, Maia can win the first two rounds 10-9 but gas and survive in round 3 with Jorge still fresh and putting a 10-8 beating on Maia in the final stage.
Ultimately I think Maia gets it done again. They used to have a saying about NFL wide receiver Chris Carter, that "all he did was catch touchdowns". Well, all Demien Maia does is win fights. He's not flashy but he's technical, he's a specialist, and you don't hear much about him when he is not fighting. This could explain why he is consistently flying under the radar. Alternatively Jorge is brash and coming off a bit of destruction against Cowboy. The recent performance plus the success that Robert Whittaker just had against Jacare has moved the needle into Masvidal's favor I believe. As such we are getting good odds on Maia.
PREDICTION: Maia x DEC
