UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas

[Agent Mulder]

im suprised that so many of you are discounting Joanna and think shes overrated. im not saying shes a lock to win or anything but shes def not overrated and I find it hard to believe she will lose if this gets to decision. Andrade is a good striker and can obviously finish her early but in my opinion Joanna wins this with her striking and excellent cardio.

I think JJ is amazing but I dont like her vs a power puncher who pushes forward and can also wrestle. This is my first time betting against JJ and im pretty big on Andrade.

 

[Agent Mulder]

How about a change of subject for a few hours.

Sergio +300 seems absurd especially as Cejudo's MMA wrestling is not good. Discuss.

Yeah that's nuts. I havn't watched tape on this one yet but im not impressed by Cejudos MMA wrestling at all and Pettis should out strike him on the feet.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Does cejudo go for tds tho? And if he does can he keep sergio grounded? Im starting tape on this one tonight. All i remember is a smattering of td attempts from cejudo a lot that seemed to fail especially against chico. I initially thought cejudo would be one leg for me but @ almost -400 no way. Ive also seen that pettis has a 5 inch reach adv thats huge at fly, and hes only 23 i thought he was older. He would be unbeaten too if not for brain farts in fights he was winning. But i do remember him brain farting against moraga too just as i thought he may have left that all behind. If moraga didnt go for a heelhook in r3 he would have nicked that dec. Cejudo fought much better against jb but was that cos he was angry or has he turned the corner? I bet on cejudo against chico and formiga and both fights were much closer than i anticipated. Maybe my mind will change after tape but im not feeling all the cejudo confidence and -300 being accurate.

I think he knows that and he has to. I think Sergio is attempting to train for that as well. I was on Cejudo against Chico and Formiga and was biting my nails the whole time. I just think he is the type of fighter that is going to consistently have close fights. I included him in a parlay on my book right at -300 (it's an independent book) and that seemed about right.

You are a great capper though and it seems like you are right that the odds may be a little long now (I think Cejudo is closer to -400 on most books).

I would still think Serg decision would be the way to play it though because I can't see him knocking Cejudo out or subbing him.

 

[Sham5916910]

I think he knows that and he has to. I think Sergio is attempting to train for that as well. I was on Cejudo against Chico and Formiga and was biting my nails the whole time. I just think he is the type of fighter that is going to consistently have close fights. I included him in a parlay on my book right at -300 (it's an independent book) and that seemed about right.

You are a great capper though and it seems like you are right that the odds may be a little long now (I think Cejudo is closer to -400 on most books).

I would still think Serg decision would be the way to play it though because I can't see him knocking Cejudo out or subbing him.

Yep agreed i wouldnt feel greedy taking serg dec over ml. Maybe im off tho will watch tape over next 24 hrs.

 

[cCrown]

Yep agreed i wouldnt feel greedy taking serg dec over ml. Maybe im off tho will watch tape over next 24 hrs.

If there would even be a finish on the side of pettis it would have to be a ko. I can't see him subbing cejudo. I don't think he even has one submission in the ufc. Hell i'm not sure if he ever finished someone during his ufc run.

 

[iGnP]

I kinda think cejudo -3.5 at +110 might be the best bet on the fight but I'm not running to bet that either. I don't really think highly of Pettis at all and Cejudo is only gonna be getting better between performances

Edit at least it's better than Cejudo dec at -178. Ew

 

[lawmills2006]

Maia at dog odds? I just got a raging clue...

 

[Yotsuya]

I'm still on stipe. I have to watch some more recent fights to see if his cardio has improved. Luca said that he's a fire fighter and doesn't train mma full time. He says he's seen no improvements from stipe since that fight

Stipe not training full time? That sounds crazy. I was thinking of betting on fight going to the judges, but maybe I should go O3 instead.

 

[iGnP]

Btw just wanna throw this out there, but money has come in against Maia in the Condit, Brown, and Gunnar fights. His opening odds were better than his closing odds. I'd suspect that Maia's line will continue to get better as the fight approaches so it might be a smart decision to hold off on Maia bets for now unless we see it trending in the opposite direction

 

[edole]

I understand where TT is coming from regarding JJ vs Andrade, but I truly feel like people are overrating Andrade a bit. I look forward to a good price on JJ

 

[cagebrain]

The thing I don't get about Luca is why this is happening now, what has changed? Did he get a bunch of big customers last months? Are the bookies paying attention to him and changing the lines in advance? Cause it wasn't like this a few months ago, right?

I have 2 theories on how this could conceivably happen.

One, yes he very well may have gotten a lot/large subscribers in the last couple months. His touted record as of late has been stellar (idk if it's real but that's beside the point) and people may have hopped on because of that. And we all know how stuff on the internet works, a business can be growing glacially for years and then it has some sort of breakthrough thru a viral video, taste maker support, etc, one big event which skyrockets exposure.

Two, maybe his bets have been moving lines for a long time, but more subtly so we just didn't pick up on it until now, where the movement is significant.

 

[waiguoren]

I think it's hilarious how successful Luca has become. Good for him.

If I've learned anything about success this past year, it's that Trump-style tactics really do work.

 

[waiguoren]

If they really are so much better, learn to monetize it and form a business. It's a hell of a lot more stable than gambling winnings alone.

More stable, yes. But potentially a lot less profitable. The stronger the bettor, the less willing he will be to want to sell his picks. When others follow his plays, the value he seeks gets degraded.

 

[JDB]

I think JJ is amazing but I dont like her vs a power puncher who pushes forward and can also wrestle. This is my first time betting against JJ and im pretty big on Andrade.

Seems unlikely she's KO JJ or Wrestlefuck her for 5 rounds.

Andrade is giving up massive height and reach vs the best striker the in the division, her only chance is to wrestlefuck or sub.

 

[cCrown]

More stable, yes. But potentially a lot less profitable. The stronger the bettor, the less willing he will be to want to sell his picks. When others follow his plays, the value he seeks gets degraded.

I'm probably missing something here but why would that be the case if he would just release his bets after he placed them himself assuming he would actually bet the plays he's promoting?

 

[waiguoren]

I'm probably missing something here but why would that be the case if he would just release his bets after he placed them himself assuming he would actually bet the plays he's promoting?

You're right if the bettor is a small player relative to the size of the market. But in the real world of MMA betting, total take is quite low even for big fights. I'll often move a line by 20 cents just by risking $15k on it. So the reality for a really successful player is that he either bets the line himself or he offers a play to his subscribers---either way the line moves and the value is eliminated.

I imagine touts in the big three sports can have their cake and eat it too, but it's difficult in a niche sport.

 

[JDB]

You're right if the bettor is a small player relative to the size of the market. But in the real world of MMA betting, total take is quite low even for big fights. I'll often move a line by 20 cents just by risking $15k on it. So the reality for a really successful player is that he either bets the line himself or he offers a play to his subscribers---either way the line moves and the value is eliminated.

I imagine touts in the big three sports can have their cake and eat it too, but it's difficult in a niche sport.

You must be rich.

What's your best win or worst loss?

 

[Joseph Budden]

LMAO! Was contemplating pass or Maia as dog, but Mas straight up says hes not even working jits just wrestling. Dude.....cmon.

Betting Maia.

 

[JDB]

LMAO! Was contemplating pass or Maia as dog, but Mas straight up says hes not even working jits just wrestling. Dude.....cmon.

Betting Maia.

Why would he bother, it's not like he's going to become world class in 2 weeks and beat Maia at submission grappling.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Why would he bother, it's not like he's going to become world class in 2 weeks and beat Maia at submission grappling.

He knows better than me, but what happens when Maia scored just one td? Its usually a lot easier to at least do better at something if youve been practicing if youre overmatched. I thought Mas would prob lose by decision, but if hes not even bothering with jiu jitsu it seems logical an early td could lead to a sub just from not drilling positions and advances Maia favors