I don't think you can call it luck when he consistently comes on strong in the final round. He has 15 minutes and he makes full use of that time. He's a slow starter but I feel like that's part of his strategy, he knows he can outlast his opponent and reserves his energy to pour it on in the 3rd. I mean he out paced Clay Guida in the latter part of round 2 and entire round 3, that's no fluke he's clearly got great cardio. And I re-watched that fight last night and think he would have won 29-28 regardless of that late finish. That was just Rogan creating a narrative and obviously it makes good headlines in the press so the media will run with it.
Moicano looked excellent in the 1st against Stephens but he needed to mix in some takedowns in that fight to get the close decision win and was visibly slowing in the 3rd IMO. I can see him controlling the stand up for the 1st half of the fight but if he starts to slow down then that's where Ortega can really take over. And BJJ black belt or not I don't know whether putting Ortega on his back is the wisest move. We've seen how nasty his elbows from the bottom can be.
Super excited for this match up and can't pick a side yet. I'm probably going Moicano dec and small Ortega rd 3
Yea, what is a bit of both actually. You actually cut off part of my post where I said as much.
My OP I said. ...
"While a lot of it comes down to Ortegas outstanding conditioning and heart, much of it is the folly of his opposition. Terrible fight IQ and strange circumstances "........
Ortega does deserve credit for breaking them down, but he was far from putting a pace on Guida. He wasn't doing hardly anything in the first round, the second stanza was a back-and-forth kick boxing match with neither really pressing the issue. Ultimately, in the third, Ortega stepped on the gas and forced Guide to make a mistake.
But you could see the writing on the wall, and Guida is known for his bonehead fight IQ. You could see him ducking down and reaching for singles and shooting in with no set ups. Throwing lazy naked kicks without strikes or feints. His clunky striking has always been an issue, and often times it just gets him smoked. It's not so much that it happened in the third round as it is that it happened period. Guida's always ripe for the KO.
But he did the same thing with Roger Huerta after dominating the first two rounds. And it wasn't that Guida was tired, that guy can go five rounds with cement shoes on. Guida has terrible striking defense. Lack thereof. He was in the same situation with Huerta excerpt Roger was definitely down to rounds to zero and Guida shot in just like you did Ortega and Huerta left in the air and heating was a flying knee that nearly knocked his chin off.
But like I said, Guida is a mental midget. That's why he's been caught in so many submissions and flatlined. Even Diego Sanchez and his crap striking was laying into Guida. Drilling him with everything he threw. At one point it looked like a fucking hockey match brawl. Guida got kicked from a HHK in that fight that I still don't know how he withstood it LOL
But I'm hijacking my own post. My point is that yes Ortega deserves credit for pushing the pace and getting his guys to tire out so he can get to them late. But at what point does a fighter use their fundamentals and not get washed in the final stanza. I mean, Ortega is really pushing the envelope here. .. he's not giving himself much room to work with for sure.
0.21 R3 (Clay Guida)
0.32 R3 (Thiago Tavares)
1:32 R3 (Diego Brandao)
Brandao is also a mental midget that lets foes snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
This is the first time he's going to be in there with the real technical fighter who isn't going to make unforced errors. Ortega's going to have to take the flight away from the Brazilian involves he is not going to have it handed to him.
Finally, Ortega ABSOLUTELY can win. He's like Nick Diaz 2.0 but an even slower striker. However, I think that he has better MMA BJJ. Like Nick, Ortega gets more comfortable as the fight goes on and by the third round he was stuffing your takedowns and he looks invincible in there. He just needs to get out of second gear before the 12 minute mark.
BOL
