Why do you like Sterling? Who do you favor if it stays standing?
I'm gonna play Cerrone +140 and itd +287. I'm trying to figure this fight out, and in the end I can't help but think the all out wars that Robbie has been in have finally taken their toll. And getting blasted by Woodley his last time out doesn't help.
I realize Cerrone has taken some punishment too and got pounded by Masvidal last time out, but I do think he's moderately less shopworn. And I think his superior grappling can make a difference too. Robbie's counter-wrestling is great, but Cerrone is a sub threat from anywhere and is the better overall grappler. I also think his muy thai kicking game will play a role.
I slightly favor Cerrone here, and dog odds are too good to pass up imo.
Lamas has never lost by sub, but prior to the Knight fight, Skelly had 0 losses by ko or sub and Knight broke his arm with an omoplata and knocked him out later in the fight.
I know that I can't compare Skelly's and Lamas' opponents, but it shows how dangerous Knight is.
Where can i watch (or download) Calvin Kattar fights?
Any rusky youtube channel uploading CES cards ?
Robbie Lawler's got his own kicking game too for what it's worth, but his offensive boxing will carve Cerrone up. Cerrone doesn't have the head movement to survive for long against a brawler like Lawler, and I don't see the ground game becoming relevant at all. Now for soft factors:
- It has been a full year since Robbie got OHKO'd, but six months since Cowboy got ko'd twice in the same fight. Robbie's got more rest. Robbie also has a helluva chin in other situations; Cowboy gets rocked every fight whilst Robbie ate shot after shot from Rory and kept standing.
- Cowboy might still be feeling lingering effects of his groin injury. At any rate, he's certainly in worse shape than Robbie.
- Size advantage (Cowboy's taller but we can all agree Robbie's got a thicker frame; Robbie was a MW who now fights WW, Cowboy was a LW who now fights WW)
Bum-level betting factors (that might still be relevant):
-Cowboy gets spooked easily, and Robbie is notorious for doing that to people.
o1.5 for Cyborg/Evinger is +220 already. That just seems too high, Evinger is though as shit.
I bet on Woodley, enough to win $100 if he wins. I was contemplating betting much more, but I'll play it a bit more safe.
For one, getting taken down doesn't mean you're automatically submitted. I think Maia will gas and get knocked out. I think it's almost guaranteed.
Your first point is relevant. Robbie has had more time to recover. That's fair, and definiitely needs to be taken into account.
Cowboy "gets rocked in every fight"? Brown clipped him yes, and obviously Masvidal blew him up. But prior to that Cote barely touched him, Story barely touched him. It's a big exaggeration to say he "gets rocked in every fight".
Lawler throws kicks, and yes they can be effective, but they aren't on Cerrone's level. Robbie does have better hands, I agree.
I'm of the belief that prolonged beatings (even in fights where a guy wins) have a more profound effect long-term than just getting KO'd. Robbie has arguably taken more punishment in just his fights with Rory and Condit than Cerrone has in years. Maybe in Cerrone's whole career.
I think the ground game is a relevant factor for a few reasons. Cerrone has become good with timing TD's. He lulls guys into thinking he just wants a kickboxing contest, then hits a quick surprise double. Obviously Robbie's TDD is stellar, so maybe that won't matter. But even if you believe that Cerrone can't take Robbie down, the grappling still matters. Because it gives Cerrone another way to finish if he does hurt Robbie. Cerrone is terrific at turning a strike that stuns an opponent into a sub. On the flipside, if Robbie hurts Cerrone but Cerrone isn't completely out of it, Cerrone can conceivably use his guard to survive.
I do think your point about Cerrone's injury is something to consider though. With someone else, maybe not. But he is the kind of guy who'd fight hurt, so that's for sure something to think about.
In the end, I'd bet either guy as a dog honestly. I very, VERY slightly favor Cerrone but absolutely wouldn't be shocked if Robbie won. At all. If the odds were flipped and Robbie was +140, most likely I'd be betting him.
iirc, before lawlers fight with condit robbie had absorbed over 500 head strikes since his return to the ufc.